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A tale of two financial sectors

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Banks shares have been buffeted by ill winds in recent months, including the housing and subprime finance meltdowns, and the sector has been among the stock market's worst performing groups.

Insurance shares, meanwhile, have lost some ground relative to the broad market but have outperformed banks and other financial shares by a wide margin.

Arguably, that suggests investors see little real impact on insurers from the problems affecting their counterparts in banking and elsewhere. However, in a financial environment where margins are low and risk is being repriced, in some cases dramatically, I wonder if the bulls on insurance stocks might be missing something?

Whether they offer coverage against calamities such as floods or fire, or protect policyholders from financial loss due to illness or death, insurance companies are in the business of acquiring risk -- albeit for a price.

But in recent years, as has been the case with myriad hedge funds and other financial operators, many insurers have reportedly taken on risk at prices that don't fully account for changes in economic and financial circumstances, such as a U.S. recession or a sharp rise in corporate loan defaults.

These investments include collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, which are "pools" of often risky loans, and credit default swaps, which are derivatives that insure against significant deterioration in a company's credit standing. Many experts argue that these products are more vulnerable to loss than they appear, and Bear Stearns' (NYSE: BSC) recent woes involving subprime-backed CDOs seem to bear this out.

Like other financial services companies, insurers have also expanded into a range of potentially risky activities, like lending to individuals or businesses, either on an ad hoc basis or by setting up subsidiaries for that purpose. Some large insurance conglomerates, in fact, have become virtual "supermarkets," marketing an assortment of non-traditional products to their customers.

Insurers that underwrite property and casualty risk also face threats unique to their industry, of course. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the current hurricane season is expected to be above normal, which, if correct, could inflict considerable financial damage after a few years of relative calm.

Under the circumstances, the dramatic outperformance in insurance company shares since late last year may have gone too far. Indeed, technical analysis suggests as much. As the accompanying graph illustrates, the KBW Insurance Index is near its late-2005 highs relative to the KBW Bank Index, which marked a significant turning point last time around.

For insurance bulls, now may be the time for a rethink.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:47 PM

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