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Microsoft's missteps still leave value

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While many may question the ability of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to maintain a leadership role in the digital media world, technology expert Mark Mowrey says "Yes, we could easily could fault Microsoft for its missteps. But let's give them a break, huh? Ever watch a cruise ship turn around?"

In The Prudent Speculator TechValue Report, the advisor explains, "It would seem, that much of the tech world awaits with great expectation that day when Microsoft implodes from its inability to evolve."

Indeed, he points out, "Much ado was made about the Xbox console's deficiencies.; the Zune portable media player launched to no fanfare, and rightfully so. Then there are the TV initiatives, which have hit a rosebush-worth of snags on the road to the living room. Vista was late-and late again. And its efforts to gain relevance in online search have failed, at least according to market share numbers."

The tech world view, he suggests, is that these missteps are just the "beginning of the end" and that the market is evolving toward one in which software doesn't reside on the PC. And, he adds, many tech observes believe that at the end of that transition, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) will be "the one to plunge the knife into Microsoft's heart to end its great dynasty."

Not so fast, the advisor argues. He states, "We would suggest readers go on over and check out Google Docs and Spreadsheets first hand. Relish in their simplicity. Bask in their get-anywhere accessibility. Just don't try to do too much with them." Indeed, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Linux, he believes, pose more of a competitive threat.

Meanwhile, he notes that Microsoft has been busy trying out a number of new platforms and business models. He says, "Most likely won't pan out. None will prove as gigantic a success as have the Windows or Office platforms. But new avenues for growth will emerge, justifying our continued attraction to the shares."

Mowrey forecasts, "For sure, none of the latest efforts-gaming, music, mobile, TV-have generated even a fraction of the stable, substantial profit created by the Windows/Office engine. But we can foresee a day when one or two just might."

Meanwhile, he adds, in the nine months ending March of this year, Microsoft still managed to grow revenue more than 16% to $37.75 billion. Client revenue, he notes, was up 14.5% to $11.16 billion, while the Business Division, where Office resides, grew revenue 11.1% to $11.76 billion. In Entertainment and Devices, he adds, revenue was up 42% to $4.92 billion.

Says the advisor, "It's not the cheapest stock we own, but we think its one of the most valuable. Not expecting the company to surprise us with the next great new thing, Microsoft should continue to create, through multi-generational effort, new avenues for growth, while slowly evolving its mainstay Windows and Office platforms, as we look for at least $50 per share for our patience."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commmentary from the financial newsletter community.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 09:11 AM

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