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AT&T iPhone launch today to hurt Sprint's recovery?

Today's launch of Apple Inc.'s(NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone (actually, this evening's launch) is sure to set many mobile hands on fire just like every Apple product seems to do these days. In what could arguably be called the most anticipated consumer electronics product launch ever, the iPhone buzz is churning up all kinds of racket, from double-digit percentages of mobile customers leaving current wireless carriers to AT&T (NYSE:T)(just to get the iPhone) to AT&T having a whole army of support and sales personnel ready to face the customer onslaught expected later today and into the weekend. Standard Apple madness, right?

What about the effect all those new subscribers (if they materialize) are going to have on the other wireless carriers in the U.S.? Specifically, Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel(NYSE:S), T-Mobile and Alltel(NYSE:AT)? These carriers are the ones that are going to face customer defections en masse if iPhone fever gets wireless subscribers dumping existing carriers for AT&T just to get the iPhone. Who could be the biggest loser here? We're not talking reality shows, but the wireless companies that stand to get hurt the most by not having an iPhone to offer.

Sprint Nextel may have the most to lose, as a Bear Stearns analyst predicts that AT&T will lure almost 1.1 million customers from the carrier to AT&T by next year just due to the iPhone. Sprint Nextel has had three quarters of customer declines (mostly due to the mismanagement of the Nextel customer base and brand), and at the worst possible time, more customers could leave in droves not for service offered, but for a product. Is the iPhone really going to be that revolutionary? The customers who buy it will tell the tale, and if they do believe that it will change the mobile landscape forever, Sprint Nextel will be the first to hear about it-- in the worst possible way.

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 10:31 AM

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