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Barron's: Buyout malaise may mean some good stock picks

With higher interest rates and pushback in the debt markets, it's been tougher for the private equity folks to get deals done. Just look at the recent IPO of the Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX). The stock has been, well, like a stone.

But, according to this week's Barron's [a paid service], this may be an opportunity. That is, there may be a way to arbitrage returns.

Huh? Well, many deals have a spread between the buyout price and the current stock price. Why? Since a deal has not been closed, there's a risk of a deal falling through.

With the recent general problems in private equity, there's been a widening of spreads.

In fact, there are 10%+ spreads on such marquee companies like First Data Corp. (NYSE: FDC), Alltel Corp. (NYSE: AT), Alliance Data Systems Corp. (NYSE: ADS), and Harrah's Entertainment (NYSE: HET).

These firms have top-tier private equity sponsors. And, in terms of reputation, it would not be good for them to walk away. So while the financing costs may be higher, I still think private equity firms will work pretty hard to get these deals done.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 03:04 AM

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