Through the month of June it seems that it remains a stock pickers' market as Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I all topped the indices. Google continued its strong move upward battling me for the lead, while Cramer lost much of his gains of last month competing to stay ahead of the indices. Cramer is sticking with his NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) pick, and it continues to drag him down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major has affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are a bigger story and something seems to be happening every day. This is my sixth follow-up report. It is not a long time, but short of a major change in the global economic picture it looks like 2007 will be a good year. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.
There seems to be growing support for large cap stocks which analysts have been talking about but now might be starting to show up for real. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are finaly giving large cap stocks their due. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy. There also may be some flight to safety. That said, June seemed more cautious then May except in foreign markets as indicated by the strong rise in my Chinese picks. Investors moved the S&P 500 index to new highs.
Summary of Results:
- Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) has made a strong move upward since my last report after starting up in January, being down for a while and back up the past six weeks finally closing at $522.70, a big move, rising to a +13% gain though the first half of the year and taking the top spot for the first time.
- My picks continued improving further from the first five months +8.02% to 10.87% through June. Adding the dividend portion of (2.89% x .5) of 1.45% brings the total return to +12.32%. Last month PetroChina Co. (NYSE: PTR) continued to improve, and moved from negative territory to postitve, stablized huge gains over 43% from Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) remained my best over all pick. My other Chinese stock Huaneng Power International ADS (NYSE: HNP) continued to rise to a staggering gain now at 29% in a short period of time.
- Jim Cramer's average return on his nine picks was a fantastic +12.42% after five months but came back down to earth for an 8.76% first half gain. Adding the dividend portion (.66% x .5) of 0.33% brings Cramer's gain to +9.09%, still very respectable. His best pick by far is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) finally besting Valero as the leading gainer among all the stocks being tracked in this story. The release the iPhone left many unhappy customers as AT&T was not prepared on the activation front June 29. Up until this time there has been much excitement about the iPhone and speculation in Apple shares will make for an interesting month of July.
- The Indices held their ground in June, with the DJIA and NASDAQ giving a little back ad the S&P leading the group forward to a very slight gain mid-year of +6.7.%. Adding its portion of the dividend yield (1.8% x .5) of 0.9% brings it up to a total gain of +7.6% (through May 7.56%) which if matched in the second half of 2007 would be a great year.
Note that portional dividends have been added to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only three of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indices pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 2.89%; and Google does not pay a dividend. Dividends matter and if this was an end of the year report my value picks would hold top honors.
At times I have viewed this as a "Tortoise and Hare" story and the Hare has retaken the lead and I believe Cramers spectulation will do him in. It is my belief that Value will beat Growth and Indexing over the long run. Google is a wild card! It may be the Cheatah among us, racing ahead with lighting speed at times and then droping out of sight at others. Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; The Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) and The Home Depot (NYSE: HD). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.
The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and six month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy Corp. (NYSE: SE) that was spun out of Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK). Among Cramer's picks Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) which was spun out of Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO), is included in the calculations
- The Dow Chemical Company: $40.02 is UP to 44.22 (+10.45%) 3.54% yield
- Duke Energy: $33.02 (incl. of Spectra Energry (NYSE: SE)) is Down to 31.28 (-5.56%) 4.31 yield
- The Home Depot Inc.: $39.73 is Down to $39.35 (-1%) 2.31% yield
- Huaneng Power International ADS: $36 is UP to 46.45 (+29.03%) 3.62% yield
- PetroChina ADR: $142.12 is Up to 148.68 (+4.6%) 4.5% yield
- Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) $22.00 is Down to $21.04 (-4.56%) 1.1% yield
- Valero Energy: $51.61 is UP to $73.86 (+43.11%) 0.84% yield
The following index comparisons are also from December 28, 2006 :
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Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,501.52 is Up to 13,408.62 (+7.26%)
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NASDAQ Composite Index: 2,425.57 is Up to 2,603.23 (+7.32%)
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Standard & Poors 500 Index ($INX): 1,424.73 is Up to 1,503.35 (+5.52%)
1) Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) $5.66 is Up to $5.85 (+3.36%) No dividend
2) Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) $5.49 is Up to $6.38 (+16.21%) No dividend
3) Savient Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SVNT) $12.01 is Up to $12.42. (+3.41%) No dividend
The Cramer Growth Picks are:
1) New York Stock Exchange Group (NYSE: NYX) $97.51 Down to $73.62 (-24.5%) No dividend
2) Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) $80.87 UP to $122.04 (+50.9.%) No dividend
3) Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) $27.42 Up to $27.85 (+1.57%) No dividend
The Cramer Value Picks are:
1) Altria Group (NYSE: MO) $86.23 UP to $70.14 Kraft at .692024 x $35.25 = 24.39) to 94.53 (+9.63.%) 4.12% Yield
2) Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) $200.80 UP to $216.75 (+7.94%) .72% yield
3) Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) $31.26 UP to $34.50 (+10.36%) .97% Yield
The New Powerhouse Google
I have been tracking Google since it is of broad interest to the investing public and internet users alike. Google closed December 28, 2006 at $462.56. After rising initially in January it has been trading broadly between $440 and $480, but May was a breakout month and June followed equally strong, ending the month at $522.70. for a YTD gain of (+13.00%). No dividend
Look for my next report in August during the week following the closing stock prices for the month.
Disclosure: I own shares of DUK, HNP, PTR, SE, TWX, and VLO.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-04-2007 @ 9:03PM
Tom said...
How did you miss Aluminum Company of China and China Mobile..?
7-05-2007 @ 1:46AM
Sheldon L said...
Did not miss a thing Tom. Bought ACH at $22 and have written about it several times. Check out Chasing Value column. I passed on China Mobile based on fundamentals but not potential. Clearly it has been a winner.