Let me introduce my Yankee Doodle Dandy portfolio, a compilation of red, white and blue stocks for investors to consider as they celebrate our nation's independence.
Regardless of your views on the Iraq war, there's no denying that defense stocks including Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman Co. (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) and General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) are reasonably valued. This is especially noteworthy considering that defense spending will need to be maintained at pretty high levels for years to come in order to replace equipment that's been worn out from combat. President Bush is proposing to spend a record $439 billion in fiscal 2007 on defense and another $42.7 billion on homeland security.
Lockheed, the maker of the F-16, seems especially cheap, trading at a forward multiple of 14.6. Its shares have only gained 4.6% this year even though the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and raised earnings guidance. Missile and defense electronics company Raytheon, up less than 3%, is in the same situation.
Investors often overlook the huge businesses that Lockheed and Raytheon have in areas outside of defense, including computer systems and air-traffic control. The managements of both companies also have vastly improved over the past few years. Northrop and General Dynamics have always been pretty well run.
Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA), notably the second-largest defense contractor, also looks worth snapping up. Its stock is up less than 3% this year, which is surprising considering how well it's rebounded against European rival Airbus. The company trades at a forward multiple of 17.7.
Though Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has soared almost 30% this year, the stock isn't running out of gas -- pun intentional -- yet thanks to the huge demand for ethanol. Not only do farmers need equipment to harvest the corn for the fuel additive but companies need construction equipment to build plants to process it, which will benefit Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT).
Remember that demand for ethanol is surging. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, there are 86 ethanol plants under construction, compared with 16 in January 2005. The total number of plants has jumped from 81 to 119 during that same time period. By 2030, the U.S. may use 14.6 billion gallons of ethanol, compared with 4 billion in 2005, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Surprisingly, Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM), which gained notoriety for pushing the ethanol under former CEO Dwayne Andreas, hasn't fared as well as Deere. Its shares, which have risen about 7% this year, are trading at a forward multiple of 13.6, compared with Deere's 14. When I covered the ethanol business for a newsletter company in the early 1990s, I found out quickly that the industry is more than just ADM. In fact, many ethanol producers secretly detested the agribusiness giant.
Nonetheless, even with the increased competition from upstarts, ADM will also benefit from the growing use of the corn-based fuel additive. The company is just too big too ignore.
Another patriotic trend worth considering is the growth of barbecues. Record numbers of grills were shipped last year, according to the Hearth, Patio and Barbecue Association. There's no reason why that shouldn't continue, which is good news for the likes of Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowes Cos. (NYSE: LOW).
Speaking of which, I've got to clean my grill. Company is coming.
Happy Fourth of July.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-04-2007 @ 10:45AM
Mike said...
With all those "defense companies" we can arm the world then go fight ourselves!
7-04-2007 @ 10:46AM
Harold said...
Nice "flag waving" but if you want growth you better have international companies in such areas as Asia, eastern Europe and Russia and South America.
7-04-2007 @ 3:42PM
Bas said...
I was just at Target (July 4 noon). I saw three people just in line from where I could see from my line buying barbecue and outdoor patio stuff. The store was very busy. So I am also watching TGT. They have nice stuff with sufficient trendiness for the patio.
7-04-2007 @ 6:42PM
Mike said...
Be nice if we stopped selling arms to the rest of the world...and then years later have to fight against them!! With all our "flag waving" we are the world's biggest arms merchant to the world and its dictators...
7-05-2007 @ 3:51PM
dan said...
As an investor, these stocks look poised for gains in the long-run. I recommend this report to anyone invested or interested in this sector...
http://www.pennysleuth.com/rpt/defensestocks.html
-Cheers!
7-06-2007 @ 10:37AM
Mort said...
How sad...We arm the world.