Alcoa misses by two pennies

With second quarter earnings season kicking off at the closing bell, all eyes are on Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA). AP reports that investors are expecting it to post a profit of 83 cents a share.

As I've posted many times, we live in a beat-and-raise market. That means a company needs to beat quarterly earnings expectations and raise its guidance for future revenues and profit in order for the stock to rise after it reports. So investors will be looking closely at Alcoa's results and listening closely to management's conference call for signs of whether to buy or sell its stock.

Investors may be concerned about how Alcoa will achieve the objectives it had for its hostile effort to merge with Alcan, Inc. (NYSE: AL) if the deal falls through. Bloomberg News reports that absent the deal, Alcoa could tumble to the third rank among the world's largest aluminum producers. Meanwhile, production losses at two U.S. smelters hurt net income, according to Credit Suisse analysts including David Gagliano, who forecast earnings of 75 cents a share -- well below the 83 cents consensus.

Alcoa has exceeded earnings estimates in four of the the last five quarters. But this one looks dicey.

Update: Alcoa reported earnings of 81 cents a share -- two pennies short of expectations. However, Bloomberg News reports that profit excluding items topped analysts' estimates by one cent. Sales climbed 3.5% to $8.07 billion. The stock fell 1.1% in after hours trading.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.