I don't know how the Harry Potter story will end but I am sure of one thing -- it will make more money than any author could ever dream. In fact, Paul R. La Monica has developed a Harry Potter index which he believes provides a way for investors to track just how much money Harry Potter will make. La Monica calculates that the shares of the companies in his index are up 11% so far this year, compared to a 7.6% gain for the S&P 500.
Here are the 10 stocks in La Monica's Harry Potter Index and how much they're up or down so far this year:
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Amazon. com (NASDAQ: AMZN) +80% reports that more than 1.07 million Potter books have already been pre-ordered in the U.S. and it has taken in 1.6 million pre-orders worldwide. Amazon is expensive -- it trades at a PEG of 4.8 -- based on a P/E of 116 and 24% earnings growth to $1.27 in 2008.
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Barnes and Noble (NYSE: BKS) -4%. B&N is reasonably priced -- it trades at a PEG of 1.4 -- based on a P/E of 19.4 and 13.9% earnings growth to $2.07 in 2008.
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Borders Group (NYSE: BGP) -13%. Both book retailers sell the Potter books. Borders is cheap -- it trades at a PEG of 0.3 -- based on a P/E of 578 and 2000% earnings growth to $0.70 in 2008. But it lost money last year and is a relatively risky bet.
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Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) +0%. EA is the software developer that has the license to make Harry Potter video games. EA is not cheap -- it trades at a PEG of 2.2 -- based on a P/E of 225 and 100.6% earnings growth to $1.58 in 2008.
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General Electric (NYSE: GE) +2%. GE is the majority owner of NBC Universal, whose Universal Studios unit announced in May that it is building a Harry Potter theme park in its Universal Orlando resort. The park is scheduled to open in 2009. GE is moderately priced -- it trades at a PEG of 1.46 -- based on a P/E of 19 and 13% earnings growth to $2.50 in 2008.
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Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) +18%. Hasbro sells a variety of Potter-inspired candies. Hasbro is not cheap -- it trades at a P/E of 22 and its earnings are expected to decline 2% to $1.81 in 2008.
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IMAX Corp. (NASDAQ: IMAX) +15%. IMAX will show a big screen 3D version of the latest movie. IMAX lost money last year and is expected to do the same next year as well.
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Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) +12%. Mattel makes Harry Potter action figures, games and puzzles. Mattel is expensive -- it trades at a PEG of 2.2 -- based on a P/E of 17.3 and 8% earnings growth to $1.73 in 2008.
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Scholastic Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHL) +1%. Scholastic publishes the Potter books and is cheap -- it trades at a PEG of 0.4 -- based on a P/E of 26.5 and 76% earnings growth to $2.61 in 2008.
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Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) -4%. Time Warner owns Warner Bros., which is releasing the film. Time Warner is also the parent company of this blog. The film is expected to be a huge blockbuster, following in the footsteps of its four predecessors, which have combined to gross more than $3.5 billion worldwide. Time Warner is reasonably priced -- it trades at a PEG of 1.1 -- based on a P/E of 16.7 and 15.6% earnings growth to $1.15 in 2008.
Of these 10, Scholastic is likely to see the most significant impact from the sales of the seventh and final book, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows," which comes out on July 21. But the book is only one part of the Potter empire. This month the fifth movie, "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," hits theaters on July 11. Then there's all the Potter toys, video games and other merchandise.
Harry Potter author J. K. Rowling -- whose $1 billion net worth makes her the 10th richest woman in the UK -- alone knows how the story ends but we can all be sure that there's a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for her and perhaps some of the companies in the Harry Potter Index.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns GE shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned in this post.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-09-2007 @ 10:31AM
Michael Schneider said...
Regular movie theater companies like Regal Cinema (RGC) could also benefit from a good showing of the Harry Potter films. These stocks were starting to get hot because of the number of strong films coming out this year starting with the summer film kick-offs of sequels to Spiderman, Shrek etc. Those films had good openings but did not show sustained results thus causing the theater companies to hit a ditch. It is important for Harry Potter to show sustained results. Good films will still be coming out this year and the film industry is still 4% ahead of last year so things could still be good for some of the stocks like Regal and Carmike.
Find Regal Cinema (RGC)on our list of Weird Media Stocks 2 at http://www.Barrelomedia.com.
7-09-2007 @ 12:43PM
steve holben said...
I'm 62 and don't know Harry Potter from "what I otter", but I do know this entire phenomena is the work of Ms. Rowling and I hope she has sense to tell those (inevitable) people who think she "owes it to give back to the people" to go to hell. She deserves every penny she gets and should be able to keep it and live in luxurious peace.