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DryShips continues to fly: Too late to get aboard?

While many have heard the saying, "Another day, another dollar," few have heard, "Another day, another 52-week high for DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS)." That's probably because I just made it up ... but that's not to say it's not very true! It seems like every day this momentum name hits another 52- week high. Today, for example, the stock bounced 7% when an analyst from Cantor Fitzgerald boosted her estimates and bumped up her price target for the company.

Why is the stock so hot? Primarily, because of very strong pricing power for the entire dry-bulk industry. In fact, recently a three-year high in rates was reached.

But this is old news -- investors want to know what to do now. I don't think it's too late to jump aboard the party for several reasons:First of all, the stock doesn't have a typical momentum stock's valuation. Although the ratios can be misleading because it is in a cyclical industry, I believe the stock hasn't yet reached its peak in earnings. I'm expecting $5.50 per share or more in earnings for this year, and more than $6 per share in earnings next year. Therefore, on ratio basis, the stock is cheaper than almost all its competitors. However, comparisons are slightly flawed because DryShips has more debt than most of its competition. That being said, this certainly is no profit-less or several-hundred-times-earnings multiple.

In addition, the company isn't heavily shorted despite the impressive move in its share price. According to ShortSqueeze.com, less than 9% of the float is shorted. Why does this matter? In my mind, it proves there aren't many "holes" in the story, unlike many other momentum stocks, which can be plagued with poor accounting, overhyped futures, or (as aforementioned) over-valuation.

The current strength in the dry-bulk pricing cycle is likely to continue for the next couple quarters. According to Jefferies & Co. analyst Douglas Mavrinac (via AP), rates should remain strong due to strong demand for grain in North America, expectations for an increase in iron ore production in the second half of this year, and shortages in rail capacity that should help dry-bulk shippers as Russian coal exports rise.

So what is DryShips worth? Well, it's hard to place a good valuation on the stock simply because the earnings are so cyclical. However, comparable company Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK) is valued at 15x this year's earnings and 14x next year's earnings, while it has very similar debt dynamics to DryShips. Keeping in mind that DryShips is currently fetching 10x this year's earnings and 9x next year's earnings, I'd have to believe that the stock can make a 15-25% move with continued positive news flow.

Investors should play DryShips like any other momentum stock -- with a close eye on the price. Although I'm not very into trading, stocks like DryShips require a close eye because the bottom could fall out at any moment. If you're not one to watch the stock market frequently, please do yourself a favor and keep a stop-loss price set.

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Last updated: September 05, 2008: 01:57 AM

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