Alcoa (NYSE: AA) made its best offer for Alcan (NYSE: AL) or so its seems. The U.S. company was willing to spend $28 billion to buy its Canadian rival.
The bid was bested today [subscription required] by Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP), another metals company. Its bid is $38 billion. That offer is unlikely to be topped. According to The Wall Street Journal, the combined company will have over $16 billion in cash flow. Assuming, of course, that the price of aluminum stays near historic highs.
The most stunning thing about the Rio Tinto bid is that Alcan was trading at $45 a share at the beginning of the year. Rio Tinto's offer is about $101 a share in cash.
If the forecasts for future earnings are off by much, Rio Tinto's shareholders could end up paying the freight.
Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-12-2007 @ 1:01PM
Gumby said...
aluminium at historically high?? NO, it is still depressed historically!! Copper finally caught up with the times by zooming to $3.50/lb. Aluminium hasnt gone up much lately. Alcoa will top RTZ with a new bid. Aluminium is still cheap to buy. Compared to $1.25 gasoline today... It is a no brainer to top Rio with a higher bid... China can only increase production so much before beginning to import again like it did with copper. Alcan has a lot of hydro power and Alcoa will pay anything to get Alcan to resume growth for the next millenium. We are only producing 30 million tons compared to over one billion of heavy rusty dumb steel worldwide annually. Aluminium will replace a lot, lot, lot, lot, lot of steel !!! Composites will do too but not by much. Aluminum will be the king of the metals!!! Cars will be made mostly of aluminum because of superior crashworthiness compared with steel. I was floored by Freeport acquistion of Phelps Dodge for $26 billion while Phelps only sells only less than $10 billion of copper annually. That was almost triple the revcenues. Alcan is doing 20 billion smoehting which mean it can go up to 60 billion or more. If Alcoa lost, we will have to pay close attention to Alcoa real valuation ,anyway. Alcoa will go to $80 and stay there forever...and resume climb as production will grow indefinitely in the future. Alcoa want to grow faster with Alcan acquistion, I dont care which way Alcoa will go.
7-12-2007 @ 1:05PM
Gumby said...
Zinc just passed aluminium now at $1.75/lb. What a joke!!! Zinc was the cheap cheap metal that used to sell for 40 cents a lb. Because of booming steel , zinc is use d to galvanize steel to keep it from rusting too fast. You see cyclone fences?? they are coated with zinc that make it look gray... That is zinc. Well alumninium will pass zinc again before too long. Aluminium is the laggard of the metals and will catch up to $3 /lb or more..
9-19-2007 @ 7:20PM
douglasamcintyre said...
Have you looked at a chart of aluminum prices over the last five years?