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Will Hairspray be a box-office tease?

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The wigs have been put away, the red carpet's been walked, and the cast and crew behind Hairspray -- the latest movie musical to hit the big screen -- is anxiously awaiting the movie's July 20 U.S. premiere.

Distributed by New Line Cinema -- a division of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) -- Hairspray returns to the early 1960s to follow the tale of "pleasantly plump" Tracy Turnblad as she aims for a role on a television dance program while attempting to battle social ills. The movie, based on the 2002 Broadway musical, which was based on the 1988 (non-musical) John Waters movie, has a cavalcade of stars, including Michelle Pfeiffer, Christopher Walken, Queen Latifah, Allison Janney, and Amanda Bynes. Newcomer Nikki Blonsky won the central role of Tracy.

One member of the Hairspray contingent that could really benefit from the film's success is John Travolta, who takes on the traditionally cross-dressed role of Tracy's mother, Edna. Since Battlefield Earth, the Scientology-inspired 2000 film widely panned as the worst move ever made, the star of Grease and Pulp Fiction has suffered some missteps, including A Love Song for Bobby Long, Domestic Disturbance, and Be Cool. Not until this Spring's Wild Hogs did Travolta appear to have any hope of ditching the box-office poison title.
But will this musical, shot for a reported $75 million, bring people into the theaters at the height of summer? Its opening date is less than two weeks after the latest Harry Potter installment and hours before the 7th and final Potter book hits stores, keeping excited readers indoors for much of the weekend. Additionally, Hairspray shares its opening weekend with the politically incorrect Adam Sandler/Kevin James comedy, I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry.

The last movie-turned-musical-turned-movie musical, The Producers, failed to dominate in the theaters, scoring mediocre reviews and grossing just $19 million domestically (after costing a production budget of $45 million). And the last high-profile musical to hit the big screen, Dreamgirls, scored decent box-office receipts and earned a well-deserved Oscar for Jennifer Hudson, but failed to garner the critical acclaim many were expecting.

It may be time for Mr. Travolta to ask for a favor from Xenu.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 04:12 AM

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