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Must be time to pick up a little Starbucks

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With the strength of this year's equities market, one major company that has not participated in the updraft is Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX). Actually, quite the opposite has happened as the shares have gone from about $36 down to the current price of $26.07. Down ten points has been disappointing, especially in a bull market, but I believe the time has come to re-examine this company and start buying the stock.

Starbucks operates on a fiscal year ending September 30. I estimate that for this year they will earn about $.87 per share, with September 2008 earnings at $1.07 per share. Commensurate revenues look like $9.5 billion this year and $11.4 billion next year. With the market capitalization at $19.3 billion, Starbucks is trading at less than two times next year's revenues. That's one buy signal, as growth companies tend to sell from three to five times forward revenues.

I recommended Starbucks last October to the members of my web site to buy at $29, and then I recommended a sell at $39 in December because the stock price got ahead of itself. I thought the shares could be repurchased in the low $30s sometime in the first half of this year. The stock is well-below that number to the mid $20s. What has happened to Starbucks is not too atypical of excellent long-term growth companies: they hit a small wall or detour along the way. Starbucks has been hampered by just okay same-store sales and rising dairy prices. Although it did not miss the March quarter expectations, it did not provide any upside to that quarter either. The froth came off the stock. The June quarter will more than likely come right in-line with consensus expectations of $2.4 billion of revenues and $.21 in earnings per share.

Starbucks is now trading at a reasonable valuation for fiscal year 2008. The forward price earnings multiple is 24 times and, as mentioned, the market cap is less than two times forward revenues. Store openings, domestically and internationally, are on target but not accelerated. Starbucks intends to open 2,400 new stores per year, which is more than six new stores for every calendar day. The goal of 40,000 worldwide units, up from the existing 13,000+, is on plan and visible for the next decade.

Starbucks is facing the growth challenges that all great companies face at some point. Can they control the growth and yet not let existing stores suffer from quality issues? Can it control its cost structure and environment? Is management talent deep enough to see this company through the next phase of its expansion? Can this company avoid brand fatigue and keep its product and services fresh and innovative?

Starbucks is a well-led organization and management tends to be passionate and committed to the goals. This company is working through its growth pains and the stock is very attractive here at $26. So I believe Starbucks is a buy.

Georges Yared is the Chief investment Strategist for Yared Investment Research.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 10:21 PM

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