In a move to improve its bid for ABN Amro (NYSE: ABN), a group lead by the Royal Bank of Scotland will improve the cash portion of its offer from 79% to 93% of the offer price of $98 billion. The bid is already slightly higher than the one made by Barclays (NYSE: BCS).
In many ways the Royal Bank bid makes more sense. It has teamed with Spanish bank Santander and Dutch financial firm Fortis, and they plan to break ABN into parts with each company taking the units that best match its operations and geography.
If the RBS bid is successful it could put other large banks in Europe and North America into play just as the industry may be facing a period of earnings problems led by mortgage quality problems and slower private equity deal flow.
Merging banks into the teeth of a slowdown may actually make sense. Combined banks could save money with eliminating back office and duplicate personnel. But, if the downturn is as sharp as the one in the late 1980s, it may not matter.
Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.
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