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Three reasons the Dow will reach 15,000 by year-end -- and six stocks to buy

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July 19 marks the day that the Dow Jones industrial average closed at the magical 14,000 number. We had a similar magic number just three months ago when the Dow hit 13,000. Back then, the purveyors of doom and gloom said we were going up too far, too fast. They certainly were wrong.

Now that the market is back below 14,000 after falling more than 100 points on July 20, those same bearish talking-heads will no doubt be describing the same scary scenarios. Professional portfolio managers are more concerned with the S&P 500, but the Dow is important and individual investors still follow it more than any other index.

Let's peel back the onion a bit and ask the question all investors are wondering: Can the Dow Jones get past 14,000 and go all the way to 15,000 and by when? My answer is an unequivocal yes. We can reach 15,000 -- by year-end quite possibly. Here are the three main reasons why I'm so bullish (followed by some stocks to consider if you agree with my analysis):

Plenty of earnings strength: On April 20, when the Dow was approaching 13,000, I wrote that the elements were in place for the stock market to continue its upward trajectory. Earnings results from the March quarter were healthy, robust and sustainable.

The same holds true for the early earnings results announced so far for the June quarter. Sure, we have pockets of difficulties like the financials, housing and some pharmaceuticals. But there is plenty of strength in sectors like energy, technology, medical devices, specialty retailers and infrastructure. Many other sectors are also reporting strong current earnings and solid guidance for the remainder of the year.

Robust M&A volume will continue: Relative interest rates are still low and basically unchanged from Dow 13,000. The cost of capital is attractive and many corporations have put their money where their mouths are, leading to record share buybacks and active merger and acquisition ( M&A) activity. The private equity/merger and acquisition transactions may slow down a bit, but it won't dry up as some are predicting. Wall Street and investment bankers have a way of "making it work." Deal terms and pricing structures may change a bit, but the deals will not go away. There will be some terrific, well-thought out deals and, as always, with any "hot transactional" market, some dumb deals. The potential for M&A will keep many stocks valuations attractive.

Mortgage market should stabilize: The US markets were trying to decipher the sub-prime mortgage mess back in April, and here in June they are still trying. The issue has not gone away, but the major banks appear to be handling the problem. The banks are aggressively identifying customers at risk and are trying to re-finance the loans, lower the rates, or whatever it takes. Reserve requirements have been raised after the first quarter and second quarter, but no major bank has missed its quarterly estimates. Higher fee income has absorbed mortgage delinquencies. The sector is still depressed, but value players are and should be looking at the group.

Also giving the market a boost: consistent and ongoing share buybacks, stronger than usual US sales overseas partially due to a weak dollar and foreign investors finding the US market under-valued.

If my crystal ball is right and these scenarios play out the way I see them, the Dow should continue to rally. Sure, 15,000 sounds high, but that magical number is only a 7.5% lift from the 14,000 milestone.

I wrote back on April 20, that two stocks to buy were Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT). Apple was at $90 and aQuantive at $32. Since Dow 13,000, Apple is now at $140 and aQuantive is at $66, having accepted a cash bid from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) of $66.50 with the sale set to close in the third quarter.

So what couple of names should you look at as this market heads from 14,000 to 15,000?

I like, at these levels, American Express (NYSE: AXP), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ). These are four Dow component names that have strong earnings momentum and powerful international sales growth. Keep in mind: with the continued weak dollar, international revenues priced in local-currencies translate back to healthy earnings growth.

Other names that are not Dow components that I like? Apple, yes Apple!! Sure it's at $140 and I realize it is very tempting to take profits or at least some off the table. If you bought it anywhere between the teens through to $100, this could be a good time to take your initial seed capital out of the stock. But the earnings explosion and product cycle are still in full bloom and I believe the stock could reach $200.

Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) has also been a great performer. Since I started recommending it back in February, the stock has doubled. But I think it is still a buy here at $45. With at least a $2 per share profit number expected for 2008, the shares are trading at a 22 price-earnings ratio on conservative numbers. With the growth rate approaching 40% and healthy and sustainable operating margins at 27%, this stock should trade comfortably at a 30 - 32 PE. I see a good $20-plus appreciation potential.

Dow 15,000 is certainly attainable within the next six months. As usual, the road will be rocky. Markets are rarely calm, but you don't want to miss out on the excitement and all the potential. I've said it before and I will say it again -- let the games begin!

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+23.5810,457.29
NASDAQ+7.212,176.39
S&P 500+3.701,109.35

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 01:55 PM

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