July 19 marks the day that the Dow Jones industrial average closed at the magical 14,000 number. We had a similar magic number just three months ago when the Dow hit 13,000. Back then, the purveyors of doom and gloom said we were going up too far, too fast. They certainly were wrong.
Now that the market is back below 14,000 after falling more than 100 points on July 20, those same bearish talking-heads will no doubt be describing the same scary scenarios. Professional portfolio managers are more concerned with the S&P 500, but the Dow is important and individual investors still follow it more than any other index.
Let's peel back the onion a bit and ask the question all investors are wondering: Can the Dow Jones get past 14,000 and go all the way to 15,000 and by when? My answer is an unequivocal yes. We can reach 15,000 -- by year-end quite possibly. Here are the three main reasons why I'm so bullish (followed by some stocks to consider if you agree with my analysis):
Plenty of earnings strength: On April 20, when the Dow was approaching 13,000, I wrote that the elements were in place for the stock market to continue its upward trajectory. Earnings results from the March quarter were healthy, robust and sustainable.
The same holds true for the early earnings results announced so far for the June quarter. Sure, we have pockets of difficulties like the financials, housing and some pharmaceuticals. But there is plenty of strength in sectors like energy, technology, medical devices, specialty retailers and infrastructure. Many other sectors are also reporting strong current earnings and solid guidance for the remainder of the year.
Robust M&A volume will continue: Relative interest rates are still low and basically unchanged from Dow 13,000. The cost of capital is attractive and many corporations have put their money where their mouths are, leading to record share buybacks and active merger and acquisition ( M&A) activity. The private equity/merger and acquisition transactions may slow down a bit, but it won't dry up as some are predicting. Wall Street and investment bankers have a way of "making it work." Deal terms and pricing structures may change a bit, but the deals will not go away. There will be some terrific, well-thought out deals and, as always, with any "hot transactional" market, some dumb deals. The potential for M&A will keep many stocks valuations attractive.
Mortgage market should stabilize: The US markets were trying to decipher the sub-prime mortgage mess back in April, and here in June they are still trying. The issue has not gone away, but the major banks appear to be handling the problem. The banks are aggressively identifying customers at risk and are trying to re-finance the loans, lower the rates, or whatever it takes. Reserve requirements have been raised after the first quarter and second quarter, but no major bank has missed its quarterly estimates. Higher fee income has absorbed mortgage delinquencies. The sector is still depressed, but value players are and should be looking at the group.
Also giving the market a boost: consistent and ongoing share buybacks, stronger than usual US sales overseas partially due to a weak dollar and foreign investors finding the US market under-valued.
If my crystal ball is right and these scenarios play out the way I see them, the Dow should continue to rally. Sure, 15,000 sounds high, but that magical number is only a 7.5% lift from the 14,000 milestone.
I wrote back on April 20, that two stocks to buy were Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT). Apple was at $90 and aQuantive at $32. Since Dow 13,000, Apple is now at $140 and aQuantive is at $66, having accepted a cash bid from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) of $66.50 with the sale set to close in the third quarter.
So what couple of names should you look at as this market heads from 14,000 to 15,000?
I like, at these levels, American Express (NYSE: AXP), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ). These are four Dow component names that have strong earnings momentum and powerful international sales growth. Keep in mind: with the continued weak dollar, international revenues priced in local-currencies translate back to healthy earnings growth.
Other names that are not Dow components that I like? Apple, yes Apple!! Sure it's at $140 and I realize it is very tempting to take profits or at least some off the table. If you bought it anywhere between the teens through to $100, this could be a good time to take your initial seed capital out of the stock. But the earnings explosion and product cycle are still in full bloom and I believe the stock could reach $200.
Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) has also been a great performer. Since I started recommending it back in February, the stock has doubled. But I think it is still a buy here at $45. With at least a $2 per share profit number expected for 2008, the shares are trading at a 22 price-earnings ratio on conservative numbers. With the growth rate approaching 40% and healthy and sustainable operating margins at 27%, this stock should trade comfortably at a 30 - 32 PE. I see a good $20-plus appreciation potential.
Dow 15,000 is certainly attainable within the next six months. As usual, the road will be rocky. Markets are rarely calm, but you don't want to miss out on the excitement and all the potential. I've said it before and I will say it again -- let the games begin!
Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-20-2007 @ 7:34PM
Jerry Bluhm said...
I agree with you there is a good chance to hit 15000 as long as nothing like an attack on our country happens.
7-20-2007 @ 11:36PM
Andrew Horowitz said...
ONLY 15,000? My last guest (Harry Dent) makes a good case for 20,000. Listen to the podcast - very enlightening
I am still not 100% sold as there seems to be many forces that are working against us, but he is compelling.
Also, regarding CROCs. I have to disagree. FAD. Short run may be positive, but this is a long term short.
(more at http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2007/07/20/crocs-is-a-short2/ )
The Disciplined Investor Podcast
http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2007/07/20/tdi-podcast-19/
7-21-2007 @ 10:00AM
eh said...
Yeah, forget about that whole subprime thing and the developing implosion in the credit markets (all that rating and spread stuff is too difficult to understand, so why bother trying). And I think really anyone can visualize GE taking the indexes higher; after all, it's been a market leader all along, right? Not to mention a trendy shoe company. Krispy Kreme anyone?
7-21-2007 @ 1:33PM
Michael Schneider said...
This morning Rich Kaarlguard of Forbes provided 4 reasons why he thinks the market will hit 18,000-- somewhat different from those named here. They include: 1. world's greatest global economy ever, 2. high liquidity, 3. big Dow stocks benefit from great global economy and 4. Nowhere else to put money.
That was on Forbes on Fox today. Synopses of all 4 Fox business block shows for the coming week, with 20 stock and ETF picks are available free in the newest (white label) Weekend Stock Review at http://www.Barrelomoney.com.
7-29-2007 @ 2:22PM
Gumby said...
GM had been dragging down DJIA for decades. UAW do not care about DJIA and they cost us 2000 points already!! Why are we ignoring GM and working on the rest of DJIA?? GM should be kicked out of DJIA !!!
7-29-2007 @ 2:22PM
gumby said...
GM is dragging DJIA down while Exxon-Mobil is helping DJIA up. We are afraid to start carpooling more because it might mean less car sales and less oil consumption. I think Americans think they are doing a patriotic duty to keep oil consumption up and buy gas guzzlers to keep stock market humming along. Americans do not know how to reallocate spending and investing. Gasoline prices are killing us and those subprime homeowners. Environmentalists are complaining about lack of public policy which is hogwash.. Those green people think that we will be paying for their green ways. No... they have to invest and proudce green goods and services to sell to us themselves. Government subsidies can not go all the way. Those green people got to learn to be self starters and they can then go to government for favors later on and then paying dividends to investors. Those green people are too dumb to think that they can just wave the global warming wand and starting scaring people into submission. Pfft!
7-29-2007 @ 2:22PM
gumby said...
Apple always went up and bust.why? Apple still do not let any other manufacturers to build anything for Apple. Apple has limited capacities. We will face shortages. Our technology will pass Apple in a year or so. Then it will start all over. Steve Jobs had been back with new gizmos every few years starting with Next long time ago, Remember the dome Mac.? iPods will fade. iPhones will be limited to the upper crust hobnobs of the bourgesises. Wireless data still hasnt caught on yet. Sprint is coming back with WiMax next year and I have to see how much it costs montly. if still $50 or more, then all bets is off. I have to choose either DSL, cable, or wireless.for any of my computers, PDAs or wahtever. I am not gonna to pick two. Just one!!! DSL is still the cheapest that counts the most. Expensive do not sell many. Just first year then whetted out.
8-29-2007 @ 12:49AM
Keith Smith said...
I agree the dow will reach $15,000 but not without a correction to about $12,480. It must cover this base before it will climb to $15,000. We will never again see a $11,000 DJIA. That base is covered and $13,000 base is being established.
Also in a $13,000 DJIA $100 - $300 daily swings are normal. When the market adjusts to this it will climb to $15,000 rather quickly.