looks good people were talking about this article at http://www.themoneyinthebank.com

I bought my first Mac in 1992 and I've been a koolaid drinking Mac Zealot ever since. I was there for The Return of Jobs, the launches of OS X, the iPod, and now the iPhone.

I don't currently hold any Apple stock. I got nervous and took my (still amazing) profits. Currently I'm afraid to invest because of the high multiples and the risks you outlined. Perhaps I'll go back in the pool if/when there is a pullback, because the iPhone is an interesting bet.

Your thesis is that Apple won't be able to maintain its momentum and give slowing growth in the iPod division as an example. I would suggest that the iPhone could be bigger than the iPod. There are many hints that Apple is executing a grand strategy that involves online services and the iPhone that will mark a shift of cell phones from phones to mobile thin clients. We're talking major paradigm shift.

So, it's a bet, as is any investment. As I said, I'm currently not taking the bet. It's too difficult figuring the odds at this point. I'm watching closely for confirmation of my theory and waiting for the pullback. The risk in waiting, of course, is that the stock might not pull back to or below current levels whenever it reaches its next peak.

For more details on my theory of Apple's "Grand Strategy", subscribe to my newsletter. Just kidding, I don't have a newsletter! :) Kevin, you can email me if you want and I'll fill you in on my theory.

it is true that there is a lot of momentum investor money driving the current run, but it also seems like the future products pipeline for Apple in the coming months and even years is very encouraging. Does anyone think fall and christmas are bad quarters for future Apple sales of macs, iphones and ipods. everytime in the past we thought Apple could not reach new heights we found ourselves in the wrong. Apple is a sound investment because of its track record of delivering on its past promises and because of those yet unspoken

Your article assumes "the next big thing" is not coming from Apple. Really? You want to bet against them? Apple isn't a company whose customers just switch back when something new comes along. They have built a loyal customer base that waits and anticipates for months, even years because they know this company turns out products that are THAT good. Name another that enjoys such loyalty for such periods of time. Their stuff is so far beyond the mediocrity and compromises we've become used to that non-users can't imagine anyone pulling this off. This factor simply isn't captured in your analysis.

I have been reading a lot of comments about Apple both negative and positive, This is the first time iv'e ever blogged about anything but i feel that my opinion is as valid as the next person.
Just to set things strait i am currently using an
I MAC G5. This is my first Mac after owning and building 7 PC's, 5 of them i used as recording studio's and all but 1 of them is still operational and useable on the net.
I will admit the Mac was a learning curve and took a lot of getting used to for me & my wife the kids fell in love with it strait away.
Not to mention the store that sold the Mac to me was not a Apple store and didn't have any idea how it worked they all used PC's at home so it goes without saying i was extremly frustrated at first.
Now i can't imagine life without the Mac it does everything the family needs and it's the most used "sorry" it's the only computer the whole family uses now.
I cringe at the thought of turning the PC on in fact it remains unplugged and unused now for over 10 months.
I won't go into the antivirus story iv'e spent hundreds on that for my PC's yet here i am writing away on my Mac without the constant warnings from norton and alike popping up every 5 mins.
To cut to the chase i will never EVER spend another cent on a PC & i can't wait till the I Phone hit's Australia, I want one now!!!
I am no computer expert so this puts me in the majority basket of the population,but if i can convert to Mac and love it i think Apple's on to a real winner.
No more updates and patches,no more upgrading hardware. Just seamless intergration for dummies like me thanks Apple well done.

When a stock moves up substantially like Apple, Google, Intuitive Surgical and others, holders and fence sitters face tougher and tougher choices about what to do with the stock. Most investors have experienced the horrors of "round trips" at one time or another and may try to avoid that fate by selling early. Then they are like those who missed the stock watching it go up and up- knowing that they could have bought or held on for bigger gains. Most "value " investors make the mistake of selling early too. Those holding have good profits and may get nervous about protecting them. Anyone who buys now faces increased risks of a big loss and less chance of continued skyrocketing. You really then need something to offset those increased risks like a knowledge of future sales prospects. Apple has that as we move into the fall "back-to-school" and Christmas buying season and on improved prospects for its Mac computer along with the iPhone sales. On the other hand if you ask yourself "What would Warren do?" you know the answer- he'd stay on the sidelines and wait for a chance to buy a stock with great prospects at a low price. The best time to buy a hot stock is long, long before it gets hot or shortly after it makes its move. Great stocks like Microsoft in the 1990s and Wal-Mart kept moving higher though and there were many opportunities to join the party-- and great value investors like Warren Buffett missed the fun. Like Apple, the stocks never gave you a chance to buy them cheap once they got going. Apple is far from an Internet stock such as those that got exploded by the bubble and it is no tulip bulb. The question is whether it will be one of the true, rare superstocks and no one has the answer to that. Apple is probably still a good buy for those who can tolerate risk and who expect it too keep coming through with great products. Analyst Gene Munster who has been bullish on the stock raised his target for Apple to $205 last week. Stocks that do what Microsoft did in the 1990s don't come along much and fall into their own "superstock" category and they probably deserve more leeway before one makes a sell decision they might regret. Whether to buy Apple now is a tougher decision than whether to hold it-- it has more risk but with IBM reporting a good quarter and Apple's iPhone sales jumping the stock is hard to resist.

The Apple Channel at http://www.Barrelomoney.com has many items on Apple. Apple is also on our Barrel View stock list there- stocks that have been covered in out free Barrel View e-mailing for anyone who signs up through our Private Guestbook. Apple was an early stock pick by The Barrel View and we have been bullish.

Anybody that doubts Apple's future ignores computer unit sales growth that is 3X the industry average (with no let up in sight), dominance of the portable music player market, and the impact the iPhone is going to have on the mobile handset market.
It's all about revenue and revenue growth, accompanied by earnings growth. If you can't project that in a simple spreadsheet, you have no business investing.

You have not done much research (if any) if you think that Apple will make only $4.20 per share.

no analysis, no facts but one ( earnings estimate)
just simply a waste of time to read

I guess in a way you are to be commended for speaking rationally amongst the swarms of irrational folk (like some of the above authors who say things like "you haven't done your research if you think Apple will only earn $4.20 next year" without any kind of a thesis behind his/her words). You mentioned the declining iPod sales and this is probably the most severe risk to Apple (and one which seems to be swept under the carpet by analysts eager to upgrade and raise price targets based on rediculous speculation re iPhone sales which would at best offset the lost iPod earnings). To see and understand the future, one only needs to look at asian consumer trends regarding digital devices. In Japan, Korea, China, Singapore and Malaysia, stand-alone music players are all but gone from stores. In place of them are a wide array of cell phones that have integrated cameras and music players. Consumers download songs wirelessly....something Apple noticed a couple of years ago when they launched an iTunes promo in Japan which basically flopped. Apple did not invent the music-phone. Rather they reinvented it, in usual Apple style. And their forray into this market is not about expanding their product lines - rather its about preserving a share of a market which is quickly transforming away from stand-alone music players to integrated devices. Had they not brought forth the iPhone, they would have found themselves a couple of years out in a rapidly declining market with declining earnings. However, by lauching the iPhone, they have hastened the end of the iPod (and of the Sansa, Zen and Zune) because now Nokia, Motorola, and SAMSUNG are now aggressive marketing cell phones with embedded mp3 players. Last I checked, Apple earnings were mostly from iPod sales. When iPod sales cease, Apple's earnings will tumble, iPhone or not. Well, unless Apple sells 45M per year. But, don't you believe it. There aren't 45M people who will be willing to pay $600 for a device that does basically the same things as most free phones today.

And what about the P/E - does anyone understand the meaning of P/E? Its the number of years you will have to own the copany before future earnings are returned to you ass shareholder equity (assuming earnings grow at the discount rate). 45 years is a helluva long time in this rapidly changing industry. Just a few short years ago, Apple almost went bankrupt. Have you all forgotten about that? Do you think the chance of Apple being one-upped by a more nimble upstart company is zero?