According to the Wall Street Journal [subscription], the Democrats are strongly leading the Republicans in the campaign finance race. Currently, the Democratic party has a $100 million advantage. Obama, for example, has more contributors than the top three Republic candidates. This suggests that Americans are tired of Republican policies, the war in Iraq, and so on. In fact, Bush's policies seem to be helping the Democratic party on a financial basis.
But this isn't a political blog -- this is a money blog. If you are interested in trying to make money on this election you should check out Intrade.com, an exchange for political and current event-based wagers. Currently, the Democrats winning the presidency is a $56 contract. This means that if the Democrats win the election, "Intraders" stand to make $44 ($100 - $56). As you can see from the chart on the right, traders have been increasing their bets on the Democrats since the beginning of this year. It's worth noting that Intrade has an extraordinary record of making accurate predictions in both Senate and Presidential races -- talk about an efficient market!
All in all, in recent years people interested in politics have gained the ability to legally try and monetize their passions. Hey! They can use the proceeds to support their favorite candidates or causes.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-23-2007 @ 10:38AM
Michael Schneider said...
Prediction markets like Intrade and University of Iowa's election market have gained considerable interest because they seem to provide more accurate predictions than other techniques-- though they aren't perfect either.
http://www.Barrelomedia.com just posted a synopsis of an excellent item on how prediction markets are being used by corporations and by Hollywood to predict the success of products, books and films. It discusses why prediction markets avoid weaknesses of other techniques such as focus groups. It suggests that you can't afford to ignore this. Very interesting!
8-01-2007 @ 10:12PM
Igor said...
"No one ever went broke underestimating the ignorance of the American public."