HDTV transition set to cause confusion and opportunities


My guess is that the majority of television-watching American have no idea that in about two years, those analog television signals beaming TV programming to all those television sets will go away permanently in favor of the newer all-digital signals.

In fact, the radio spectrum that is being vacated by the shutdown of those analog television signals is being highly sought after for all kinds of uses; mainly, high-speed Internet access over wireless devices or another radio band in which companies can provide wireless voice service, including possibly Google.

What can leading consumer electronics retailers like Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY), Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) do to alleviate the pain? How about capitalizing on this in perfect promotional fashion and sell newer high-definition sets like never before? There are also concerns that will come from the advertising industry, and who will make the devices to allow older TVs to tap into the newer digital airwaves? Many questions abound. Read on.

I am quite sure that retailers like Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Circuit City will begin cranking up the heat next year in order to ensure all customers know that analog television transmissions are ending -- and that "television set upgrades are needed." But, what will all those analog television sets in garages, dorms, poolhouses, bars, restaurants and in those outside cabanas do when those analog signals go away for good?

It's hard to imagine all those sets being turned into huge doorstops. As such, there will be a need for a small box for every one of those television sets (tens of millions if not more), and the subsidy that the government will have to undertake to provide every American analog television set with a converter box won't be cheap. Who is going to make all those converter boxes? Should you own shares of any company involved in this over the next 18 months? Investigate Samsung Electronics and Scientific Atlanta (now owned by Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO)) if you're interested.

How about television advertisers - how will they fare in this grand change slated to happen in February of 2009? One has to think that maybe sometime in 2008, advertisers and other industry experts outside of retailers will start alerting television viewers that the change is coming. After all, the transition needs to be as smooth as possible unless advertisers want to forgo millions of viewing eyeballs per day while all those analog television sets go dark until fitted with a box to "turn them back on." There will most likely be quite a few analog television sets that will need to be working once that date comes, and the $1.5 billion set aside by congress to help those TVs become useful again using converter boxes is nowhere near enough. Regardless, someone will still be making all those converter boxes.

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