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Why Apple has doubled this past year -- why it would double again

I was looking at a one-year chart of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and the stock has gone from $60 to $142 in that short year. I have been recommending it all along.

Some of my fellow bloggers have been trying to find reasons to kill this name for the past few months and yet the stock keeps moving up. Why not sell and take profits here at $140? Awfully tempting, isn't it? You could, but I wouldn't. This stock could double again over the next three years as this is the most classic growth story I have seen in a while. The multiple legs of growth have been in place and only continue to get better.

Professional growth fund managers are smiling broadly when the name Apple comes up in conversation. Of course, they own it and in fact, many I speak with are overweight their AAPL position. This means they own a larger than normal position, percentage wise, in their respective portfolio. The reasons are multiple

  1. Superior management team that runs Apple on a daily basis. CEO Steve Jobs has hit the pulse of his customers right on the money.
  2. Brand name, dominating products. The iPod still continues to dominate the MP3 market and that market continues to grow. Think about it, Apple is the market share leader of a growing market. A double positive whammy.
  3. An improved Mac computer, now with a Windows based Safari Internet browser. This only expands the addressable market place for Apple.
  4. Superb component pricing power. Apple runs roughshod on its component suppliers, thus elevating the gross margins of its products, which translates to higher visible operating margins.
  5. iPhone - beginning this product line. The iPhone is not some new, cool, chic product. Get used to the fact that the iPhone with its features and functionality is a cell-phone revolution. Again, just the beginning. Apple has very conservatively set a goal for 10 million units sold by year end 2008 ... try 30+ million units, or possibly more. Also, newer versions are on the way and European and Asian iPhone alliances yet to be fully vetted.
  6. Superb retail stores. Apple has 180 Apple stores that "own" the customer. A mega successful retail operation that sells all the key products plus millions of dollars worth of accessories like carrying cases, etc. Customers love the stores as they are enticing and well staffed.
  7. Hitting and exceeding revenue and earnings expectations. This will continue for the next couple of years. Too much momentum in the products and services for this to not happen!
  8. Apple is a global story with world-wide brand recognition.

I wrote an article on my revised price target of $200 a few weeks ago. If you are a value investor, Apple may not be for you. If you are a growth investor, the stock is for you. Sure, the easy money has been made, but the story only gets stronger from here. Yes, there is a chance of hitting speed bumps along the way; look at Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). The purveyors of negativity are having a field day with Google's slight misstep, but Google is still a strong buy. When a growth company hits a speed bump, just ask the simple question: have the fundamentals changed or deteriorated? If so, then it's a different decision. If it is a temporary issue, easily solved, like Google's, then it's a buying opportunity.

Apple reports this Wednesday after the close of the market. The story has a lot of moving parts to it, but the parts are all moving in the right direction. People who do not understand classic growth investing have been negative since $70 ... $80 ... $90 ... $120 and $140. Apple is setting the table to become a $200 billion market capitalization company and beyond ... the beyond is when the fun really starts!

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research

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Last updated: December 03, 2008: 12:27 AM

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