Dow Jones soap opera too close to call

Watching the Bancrofts agonize over whether to sell Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ) to Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) for $5 billion is getting to be painful.

The outcome of the family's deliberations is too close to call, according to the Wall Street Journal. One family member, Crawford Hill, told his relatives during a contentious meeting "all these years we haven't done enough to question management.It seems like bad timing to start now." Good point.

As I've argued before, the Bancrofts' interest in protecting the business that's been in their family since 1902 is really late in coming. The family has cashed its substantial dividend checks for years as Dow Jones made bad decision after bad decision. They really have no right to complain about the hand the media world has dealt them.

Murdoch's $60 offer isn't just ridiculous. It's insane. No buyer with any sense would try to top it. Brad Greenspan is proposing a plan he says will boost the shares to $100. It has some interesting ideas such as having WSJ.com take on Yahoo Finance. The problem is that his expectations are extremely optimistic. I just don't see how he can generate a compound annual earnings growth rate of 60 percent.

Besides, if Greenspan's plan is so great why doesn't he present it to some backers and get funding to match or top Murdoch's offer?

Anyone expecting a white knight to come to Dow Jones' rescue is wasting their time. The Bancrofts will certainly face lawsuits from minority shareholders if they turn down Murdoch's bid. Dow Jones will be better off in the long run as part of News Corp.