Is Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone a flop? That's what the stock market seems to think, judging from the decline in the share price of Apple and the phone's exclusive vendor AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), after the telecom company reported disappointing sales numbers.
AT&T, which also had lackluster earnings, signed up 146,000 iPhone customers in the first two days of sales, below analysts' forecasts of more than 500,000, according to Reuters. How meaningful is this? After all, there is no possible way analysts could have accurately predicted sales of the iPhone since it's so unique. About the best analysts could do is make educated guesses, which have proven to be wrong.
Does this mean that there are a lot fewer gadget freaks -- sorry early adaptors -- who are dying to have what some have dubbed the Jesus phone? Not necessarily. After all, we're only talking about two days here.
But only the most rabid of geeks, including Philadelphia Mayor John Street, were so motivated to get the iPhone that they had to be among the first to get them. Other geeks, no doubt, have jobs or were smart enough to avoid the long lines that were created by the Apple hype machine.
Though sales will pick up in the coming weeks and months, it's important to remember that the people who camped out for the iPhone represent a tiny minority of consumers. Most people don't have to have the latest and greatest gizmo as soon as it comes out, especially one with a hefty $499 to $599 price tag. Our sister blog TUAW has a good rundown here of the iPhone's many bugs and a good primer of the phone here.
For the iPhone to be a success, Apple will have to convince the many non-geeks in the world, including me, of the iPhone's value, and that may be difficult.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
7-24-2007 @ 2:15PM
BhhStudios said...
Wasn't the forecast for the amount sold? I am sure a large number of the phones were for gifts and to be resold on auction sites. I bet there are still a few hundred thousand phones that were bought that day are not yet activated.
7-24-2007 @ 2:35PM
MMI said...
They made the stupid mistake of going with AT&T.
T-mobile or Verizon would have been the way to go.
Or heck, be the first to provide coverage with ever carrier.
7-24-2007 @ 2:47PM
elindiano said...
apple's stock began to drop BEFORE the iphone went on sale
lack of native exchange server support, 2 year lock with att and a price tag of 500-600 bucks is the reason sales are not expected.
7-24-2007 @ 3:06PM
chip rohlke said...
I got the phone a couple days after it's release. To me it was worth the money as I never had an ipod & figure that's worth $350 of the phone's cost...which leaves $250 & as I was looking at a new Razr 2 when they came out at $300 this phone is so far beyond that I thought it was a deal. I love it..best $600 I ever spent.
7-24-2007 @ 3:34PM
dvilander said...
Are you kidding me, 146,000 units sold between 6PM on Fri nite to 6PM on Sat nite and someone can determine whether the IPhone is a hit or miss. How many phones can you get out the door in a 24 hour period. That is the window we are talking about here, right now, on this report. Keep selling, I'm buying!!
7-24-2007 @ 3:57PM
Mike said...
It is so exorbitant $600. for the iphone. The guy is so greedy. He never use the word philantropism in his vocabulary. But he knows how to use the word money and come up with a new gudget every now and then. He should epitomize Bill Gate.
7-24-2007 @ 4:48PM
Chuck Cribbs said...
Mike,
How do you know that Steve Jobs doesn't give his money away? Because he doesn't announce it? You and I have no idea who or what causes Jobs may give to.
And as for the price of the iPhone, look around at other smart phones and you will find they are more expensive than the iPhone and the service agreements are more expensive over the same 2-year period. If you would rsearch the costs you will find the truth out there.
7-24-2007 @ 5:04PM
Paul said...
Come on now. Apple has always made devices for the non-geek users. Ease of use is their calling card. The i-phone will be the standard. It takes a geek to figure out how to use all the other crap. Apple was 12 dollars when I first bougt it and it split twice since then. Get a grip.
7-24-2007 @ 5:45PM
Darryl said...
This is what amazes me. "The Street", publications like this one and those that generally dislikes Apple has consistently underestimated Apples performance over the past few years. Most of these same prognosticators have been predicting Apples demise for the past 2 decades. Yet over the past 6-7 years Apple has continuously blasted the predictions and will continue to do so. It would seem prudent to wait the mere 24 hours until Apple reports its' earnings before inserting foot in mouth about flops. I'm merely a watcher and small investor however, if I paid attention to all the talking heads the past decade my small investments would not have increased the hundreds of percentage points it enjoys today.
You haters keep hating. I'll continue to bet with Steve Jobs and Apple until they begin to make the obvious poor decisions they were making in the early and mid 90's. As for what the street and prognosticators have to say, their credibility about predicting the outcome of Apples performance has been and continues to be suspect.
I'd be willing to bet that all that have reacted negatively today will be forced to change position after Apple reports 3rd quarter earnings and # of iPhones sold tommorrow.
7-24-2007 @ 5:54PM
Robert said...
Got my iPhone about three days after they came out. Best $$ I've spent in years!! Sure, it's more expensive than the throw away phones but compare it with other smart phones (with included rate plans) and you'll see it is has a fair price.
If Apple put a GPS into this thing and I would have paid a few more hundred for it. Been happy with AT&T for years. Edge is faster than 3G on my RAZR. They must have better service in the Portland, OR area than wherever you live.
7-24-2007 @ 6:35PM
george said...
For Robert. Are you saying that EDGE is faster than 3G???? Do you know what 3G is? Please. I can understand you like the new toy, but please. Don't say bullshit. You don't have any idea of what 3G is so please keep your toy and shut up.
7-24-2007 @ 6:45PM
peter said...
A flop? One down day after the stock doubles in price in less than a year. Go buy a Zune mp3 player and put it in your Ford Excursion and drive off a cliff.
7-24-2007 @ 7:36PM
george said...
For Robert. Are you saying that EDGE is faster than 3G???? Do you know what 3G is? Please. I can understand you like the new toy, but please. Don't say bullshit. You don't have any idea of what 3G is so please keep your toy and shut up.
7-24-2007 @ 7:36PM
Barry said...
If you think 146, 000 units between 6pm Sat and midnight Sunday isn't enough, wasn't it problem of lack of supply and not lack of demand? Didn't Apple sell out all the Iphones it had in stock?
7-24-2007 @ 9:07PM
Arnold Ziffel said...
Let's see, 146,000 in 30 hours equals 42,000,000 units in one year. Yeah, I'm sure iPhone sales have dropped since the first few days it was on sale. If it had stayed at the initial rate, Apple stock would be up to $200 a share by now.
There are many folks (P. Thurrott, R. Enderle and his "group") who do everything in their power to throw sh*t on Apple and its products. Mr. Berr isn't asking the question, "Is the iPhone a flop?" He's trying to proclaim it and spread FUD!
Mr. Berr, are you a genuine goober?
7-24-2007 @ 9:08PM
Neil Anderson said...
I’m surprised AT&T could put through that many activations in such a short time period.
7-24-2007 @ 11:29PM
jimstead said...
Apple never made any public estimates of the number which would be sold in the first two days, nor did AT&T. Anyone else's estimates were made up. The analysts made their absurd estimates and share buyers listened to them, overpricing the stock. Now that reality has occurred the market has repriced. So what?
7-25-2007 @ 12:08AM
t d reynolds said...
THE MISTAKE WAS IN BEING EXCLUSIVE TO A COMPANY WHO HAS A BAD RAP ON SERVICE
7-25-2007 @ 12:21AM
t d reynolds said...
BIG MISTAKE TO BE EXCLUSIVE FOLKS
7-25-2007 @ 8:34AM
DarthHorse said...
Steve Jobs is a commie, Al Gore is a commie. Google and Apple are elitist companies, avoid them and their stocks.