Well, by now you have probably read or heard about Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) spectacular June quarter. Apple crushed Wall Street expectations by $0.20, reporting earnings per share of $0.92 on revenues of $5.41 billion. The numbers were up dramatically from last year's similar quarter of $4.37 billion of revenues and earnings per share of $0.54. I wrote a couple of days ago that Apple has doubled in price these past 12 months and will double again over the next three years if not sooner.
The case is now more compelling than ever.
The great news about Apple's June quarter was summarized in one sentence by CEO Steve Jobs: "iPhone is off to a great start -- we hope to sell our one-millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales -- and our new product pipeline is very strong." That's the story in a nutshell.
Yesterday (Tuesday) all the worry-warts were panicking because AT&T reported that they activated "only" 146,000 iPhones in its first 30 hours of selling. The iPhone became available the evening of June 29th and the quarter ended June 30th -- 30 lousy hours of activation time for AT&T. Apple stock fell from $145+ to $137 on this "horrible" news. What a joke. Remember it took Apple nearly two years to sell its one-millionth iPod unit -- two years. The iPhone will sell at least 10 million units in its first 6 quarters of availability. That's conservative, very conservative.
I have written before and will reiterate that the story for Apple for the March, June and ensuing September quarter is the Mac. Apple sold 1.7 million Mac's this past June quarter, that's up 32% over last year. The momentum in the Mac product line will continue for the foreseeable future. Oh, by the way, with the hoopla over the iPhone and the Mac, Apple quietly sold 9.8 million iPods during the June quarter. That puts Apple's installed base of iPods to over 110 million units. Unbelievable franchise.
I am re-evaluating my Apple numbers going forward like every other analyst is doing, and they are going higher. Component pricing to Apple's advantage is continuing and looks to be strong the next two to three quarters to go with increasing revenues.
Remember, Apple has three major legs of growth: iPod, Mac and now, iPhone. The retail store base and CPU's and software sales are all additional revenue opportunities for the three major growth legs.
My price target for Apple has been $200, but I am now raising it to $225...
Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-27-2007 @ 1:12AM
Jayson C. said...
I think most investors who did their homework knew this was the case...i took the opportunity of the pull back yesterday to increase my position in apple stock and to a great overnight benefit.
7-25-2007 @ 9:28PM
August said...
BRAVO Georges!
You deserve a share in every accolade Apple receives. You've at times been a lone beacon in a sea of naysayers. Thankfully, you fight a good fight and represent a good cause.
The beauty of being long on INVESTING in (not worshiping), Apple, is that there is no "fanboy," insult that stands up to common sense and technological awareness. I appreciate your leadership in this regard.
Appreciatively,
August
7-25-2007 @ 9:33PM
tom said...
Earnings are the biggest factor in a stock. to beat estimates like they did is quite a feat. I think that all the worry warts and nea sayers are eating crow right now. If I-phone grows like the rest of the product line this will easily double from 140. Value line had earnings of .60 and 3.25 for this year. AAPL is at 2.06 with 2 more quarters. so its 4.00-4.50 easy. 100% growth in earnings. All the analysts are
busy rewriting price targets and forgeting what they just said regarding the 150,000 activation number. 100% growth means p/e ratios don't matter right now ....do they?
7-25-2007 @ 9:49PM
cA Grimm said...
"Are there any more doubters?" Here's one:
Douglas A. McIntyre
Apple (AAPL): Sleepless Night For Longs
Wall St.'s expectations were for Apple (AAPL) to report earnings of 72 cents per share on 21 percent revenue growth, to $5.29 billion dollars, according to a poll of analysts by Thomson Financial. On a more detailed basis the street consensus for iPod shipments is for 10 million, while Mac shipments are expected at 1.7 million.
Apple posted revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.37 billion and net quarterly profit of $472 million, or $.54 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.9 percent, up from 30.3 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's revenue.
iPod shipments came in low at 9.815 million. Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago quarter.
The company said it hoped to sell one million iPhones by the end of its first quarter of sales, a figure likely to disappoint.
Apple sees Q4 revenue of about $5.7 billion and fiscal Q4 EPS of $.65. The guidance alone was enough to sink the shares. Analysts are expecting $.82 for the next Q.
Shares fell 3% in the after-market.
Douglas A. McIntyre 24/7 Wall Street
7-25-2007 @ 11:08PM
Dianne Olivo said...
Doug,
You are definatly the doomsayer..especially when comparing "apples" to oranges (microsoft) but I totally agree..wait until tomorrow when the home sales numbers plays in, and the reality of home ownership (and Lack of it in the foreseeable future) takes over. Discretionary spending on a $600.00 phone.
NO CONTEST....at least not until 2008.
7-26-2007 @ 1:08AM
Camden said...
@Dianne
Uh, people spend $4 a day on Hot Mocha Supremes at Starbucks easily amounting to, on a conservative estimate, $400 A YEAR in coffee. This has been going on for what, 10+ years?
Nah, I doubt people are going to have a problem spending $600 of "discretionary" income on a handheld computer/phone/video player/iPod regardless of what housing "numbers" come out that you refer to.
7-26-2007 @ 3:00AM
SuperChuck said...
Apple projected 500k-700k units and the actuals came in at 146k. That actually is "horrible".
And now you're claiming "The iPhone will sell at least 10 million units in its first 6 quarters of availability. That's conservative, very conservative."
Based on what? The stellar opening weekend sales?
When you start bragging about how many units you sold in the first 30 hours, that usually means the market has cooled.
7-26-2007 @ 4:48AM
Martin Moreyra said...
Leopard will probably increase sales; things as iTV might no add anything until the market be ready and the product have some improvements; iTunes sales will keep on growing; iPod sales may start to decrease only in markets where iPhone is offered.
However just look at the Computers market share. Almost anyone have noticed how much Apple has increased sales and gained market share. With awesome products as iMac's, MacBook's and MacBook's Pro getting better and better, no doubt it's the new generation brand (remember Nike's and Starbuck's hip yet?). Now it's about technology, but even in this industry trends move after mobile, Internet and hip entertainment devices. There are two companies already well positioned here and reigning (good bye Microsoft's, su revoir Dell, adios HP, tchau Yahoo!), but they should look close to innovators (and probably continue traditional take-over strategies).
7-26-2007 @ 6:19AM
Jon T said...
George - wondered why you choose to use the old style Apple?
@Superchuck - Even if it were 146k which it isn't, since when did Apple predict first weekend sales.
Friday night and Saturday sales amount to 270k which means they were selling 9,000 an hour. I doubt they could have fulfilled much more than that. It lso does not include the online sales which shipped later.
Any way you look at it, a monstrous, mind blowing product launch for a game changing product (line)...
7-26-2007 @ 9:46AM
Warren said...
"Apple projected 500k-700k units and the actuals came in at 146k. That actually is "horrible"."
On 2 days sales. 2 days. Think it over.
7-28-2007 @ 1:57PM
Ian from www.thenewsroom.com said...
It's seems as though not everyone thought it was so rosy...this a news clip from Reuter's...http://thenewsroom.com/details/528239?c_id=wom-bc-js
7-28-2007 @ 9:57PM
Beltway Greg said...
Kids, this isn't even about the IPhone yet? This is the best of the best case scenarios. In the interim head on down to the genuis bar over the next month and chat-up the kid with multiple tats. Ask seemingly simple questions like how is the IPhone selling?
Sometimes the alterna-teen with the multiple tats is much more helpful than the college grad with mutiple degrees.
Apple will dip no lower than $135.00 in the coming weeks and close at $175.00 around Xmas. We'll see $200.00 in Jan. Of course, if something unforeseen happens you're on your own and yes that means you Sheldon L.
Beltway Greg
"Long and Strong since 1999."