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BloggingStocks Interview: GE CFO talks up NBC Universal

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General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) CFO Keith Sherin defended his company's continued holding of NBC Universal and gave the media conglomerate a surprisingly high valuation of between $40 billion and $45 billion.

GE has been getting plenty of flack about holding on to NBC since it is not #1 or #2 in its market, as previous CEO Jack Welch would have wanted it to be. Sherin pointed out during a lunch meeting with me, my fellow blogger Jon Ogg and a few other writers that NBC is "priceless waterfront property." Sherin argued that Welch had picked up NBC from RCA at a relatively low price -- increasing its value from $3 billion to $10 billion. And in 2004, after forming NBC Universal with Vivendi Universal, the new entity was worth $32 billion. Sherin now estimates that NBC Universal is worth between $40 billion and $45 billion, although I am not sure I understand how he arrived at this figure.

Another way to look at NBC Universal's value is to compare it to other publicly traded TV networks like Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA), The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS), or CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS). Those three trade at Price/Sales (P/S) ratios of 2.4, 2.0 and 1.8 respectively. (Since I don't know NBC Universal's net income, I thought P/S would be a reasonable valuation basis). Doubling NBC Universal's first-half revenues to $14.2 billion and applying the Viacom, Disney and CBS P/S ratios would yield a value for NBC Universal between $26 billion to $34 billion.

Admittedly my valuation approach is quite crude, but GE's valuation seems high if my analysis is even close to being right. While I didn't get the impression that GE is eager to sell NBC Universal I wondered whether Sherin's mentioning a value could have been a subtle suggestion that GE would sell it for the right price.

Update: A reader suggested I use estimates of NBC Universal's net income to estimate its value. When I did that, Sherin's estimate of NBC Universal's value looks quite reasonable. I applied the GE Corporate ratio of net to operating income of 83% to NBC Universal's operating income which yielded an estimated 2007 net income for NBC Universal of $2.66 billion (this is 83% of $3.2 billion -- twice NBC Universal's first half operating income of $1.6 billion). Applying the Price/Earnings ratios of Viacom (20.2), CBS (18.6) and Disney (16.1) to that $2.66 billion yields valuations for NBC Universal ranging from $42.8 billion to $53.7 billion. On this basis, Sherin's estimate seems conservative.

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This is the first of three GE posts that will run today:

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns General Electric stock.

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Last updated: July 10, 2009: 01:08 PM

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