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Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Jazzed by its potential

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Pharmaceutical companies are always risky propositions. So much depends on drugs in the pipeline, FDA approvals, patents in effect, and things going well when the medicines are prescribed to the public at large. But they can also be profitable when you've invested at the right time, right place. I think it is the right time, right place when it comes to Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: JAZZ). Jazz has figured out a model that is a bit less risky. Rather than trying to find the next big drug for something that other drug companies are also seeking cures for (think Alzheimer's or breast cancer), it focuses on those neurological and psychological needs that may be less high profile, yet are unmet by other medicines.

The FDA is nearing final approval of its lead compound, Luvox CR, which was developed by Jazz to treat obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) and social anxiety disorder (SAD), two prevalent psychological disorders, and is expected to be released in 2008. In a July 11 research report, Lehman Brothers said, "We view Luvox CR as an attractive commercial opportunity for Jazz owing to the combination of: (1) a large, addressable patient population; (2) compelling clinical data including once-daily dosing; (3) a highly concentrated target physician audience; and (4) an absence of promoted brand products against which it will compete."

The latter point is the biggest one for me: Jazz is treading where other companies have not, and as a result, they will have a lock on a very viable landscape. Lehman Brothers expects Luvox CR sales to hit $170 million in 2011, and $230 million by 2015. If they are on target, and I believe they are, we will see Jazz increase significantly in value in the coming years, this upcoming year in particular, when Luvox CR is expected to hit the marketplace.

Jazz also has five other products in the pipeline at clinical trial stage, and an experienced management team in place.

It hasn't been all happy music for Jazz. On the 13th of this month, Jazz announced a $20 million settlement (to be paid out over 5 years), with the U.S. government and several other organizations, regarding its promotion of Xyrem(R) a drug used in the treatment of cataplexy and narcolepsy. CEO Samuel Saks, MD, stated that the civil and criminal investigation was a result of improprieties by Orphan Medical, a company it acquired in 2005, that pleaded guilty to one count of felony misbranding of a pharmaceutical product. I believe that this is a one-time offense and is not a reflection of Jazz and its practices. If anything, it should make Jazz more vigilant about ethics and propriety moving forward.

Type of stock: A pharmaceutical that mitigates risk by developing drugs in neurological and psychological niches that have yet to be tapped by other drug companies.

Price target: Currently trading at $14.46, near its 52-week low, I think Jazz is a buy. It has potential to hit near $30 next year, after the FDA puts its final approval on Luvox CR, its OCD and SAD disorder drug.

Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 10:18 PM

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