Today the stock market is getting slammed, with the Dow down over 360 points. In my view, that's because many of the bad things that investors have been worrying about for years are all happening at the same time:
- Spiking oil prices -- a barrel of crude oil was up $1.12 at $77.
- Tanking housing market. Disappointing results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) and D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) -- squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans -- weighed heavily on the market.
- Drying up of private equity financing -- as I posted earlier today.
Over the last few weeks, these worries have been masked by an onslaught of big mergers. But the mergers aren't happening today. Moreover, if the credit markets decide to turn their back on future deals, the only thing to stop the market from freefalling would be big companies exceeding earnings expectations.
What should you do? Probably nothing if you're in it for the long term, eventually all the bad news will come out and there will be a buying opportunity. But not yet.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
7-26-2007 @ 3:19PM
Thomas said...
Who's to blame? Bernanke, of course! Leave it to the Fed to always wreck the economy! Way to go, Bernanke, you lousy bastard! This guy is nothing but a Greenspan clone whose philosophy is identical to that of his predecessor -- keep raising interest rates until the economy tanks. But he'll beat his chest and tell everyone we have zero inflation even though people are out of work and their 401K's gutted! Where on earth do we find such stupid and arrogant people to whom we entrust our very jobs? You know, Fed chiefs should be put in jail when their interest-rate-raising policies trigger a recession or a certain percent decline in the stock market. Perhaps then we'd see a little more circumspection on the part of these arrogant know-it-alls. Right now, we need a 200- basis-point drop in the prime rate.
7-26-2007 @ 6:43PM
James said...
head of fed farts and the market craps...then Greenspan adds his 2 cents and it gets worse...he just shudda died instead of retired...You and I are screwed because we can't move our money guick enough to save ourselves. Buffett, Gates, Soros, etc. You think they get hurt?.
SEC what do they do?...for the regular investor like you and I? NOT a thing. But be sure they're looking out for the big boys. Where does the money we loose go? Coffers of Goldman Sachs...etc. It simply disappear as the FED would have you believe.
7-26-2007 @ 3:41PM
JEFFREY TOBIAS said...
GEE,IF BARNEKE,DONT RAISE INTEREST RATES SOON,CHINA,AND OTHER COUNTRIES WILL STOP BUYING TREASURIES,THAT PAY OUR DEBT,ON THE OUTSTANDING,TRILLIONS WE OWE TO CHINA,AND OTHER COUNTRIES.IN ORDER THAT TRASURIES ARE BOUGHT,INTEREST RATESZ,ON THE TREASURIES,MUST COMPETE WITH THE EURO,THE DAX,ETC.CANADAS DOLLAR,IS WORTH MORE THEN THE US DOLLAR NOW.
7-26-2007 @ 4:19PM
jwpalen said...
In seems to me that the stock market is just a money pump (driven by large, well-informed holdings) that transfers money from the small investor to the large investor (who knows when to buy and sell and has enough clout to start the market moving up or down), The more movement, the more it pumps
7-26-2007 @ 4:23PM
Rick said...
Thr real problem with the United States is two fold.
1. Extreme Corporate Greed and the running of our country by the insurance and energy lobbies.
2. Campaign Contributions to those lousy politicians. The insurance companies dominate the California legislature ( more like they run the lackies) with millions in campaign financing to each candidate and then give them a hugh high paying job when they leave office. While in office they have the state burdened with so many laws designed to give the insurance industry permission to raise the hell out of their rates, and, then deny the claims against them for not paying, without the fear of the government stepping in. (Remember the contributions?) It is TIME NOW to leave both the Republican and Democrat parties. Pass it around...if you don't elect an incumbent, all the campaign contributions to their respective lackies will have been wasted. Then and only then we will get our country back.
7-26-2007 @ 4:29PM
T. MCGUIRE said...
Wall Street orchestrated the market pull back largely because of the declining dollar value. We are mired in a national, state and personal debt where price of oil is rising, dollar falling, and inflation pressing 10 percent. No one now knows where value lies. Gold falling rapidly is a fraud: oil price falling is a fraud when annual demand is up a million barrels a day, and production down a million barrels a day. The dummy leadership management in the White House is coming home to roost. Republicans have destroyed the economy under their impersonating king. If Americans don"t elect Ron Paul as President, the country will soon fail under its own financial weight.. However, they probably are not smart enough, because the collapse of journalism in our country has probably made our national collapse irreversible.
7-27-2007 @ 6:38AM
Martin said...
Mr. Tobias is completely right. If you want to fault Greenspan and Company, fault them for irresponsibly leaving interest rates low when the country is in debt up to its ears. The rates should have been raised back in 2002. Fueling a housing bubble while denying it existed is further cause. Turning your back knowingly on lax or no standards in the credit industry is yet another reason. Don't you get it, Thomas, the middle class, through their own ignorance of current events, and fixation on non news about celebrities, etc. have pretty much surrendered all of their home equity to buy crap they didn't need, and push this into a debtors nation, in just about a seven year period. Pretty neat trick, no?
7-26-2007 @ 4:40PM
Eddygh said...
The War Economy is not holding up.
7-26-2007 @ 4:55PM
Susan said...
I would appreciate it if other commenters would refrain from using vulgar or abusive language in their remarks. There is no need to characterize someone as a "lousy bastard." Hey, folks; let's try a little decency and decorum, if you please.
7-26-2007 @ 5:01PM
Jack F. Doyle said...
Gee, Gordon Gecco and Robber Murdoch have prolly already sold short.They win and the rest of us suckers lose.
The bushes, saudi princes,cheney,rumdumb and wolfabitch hold Carlyle daddy warbucks funds and hope to keep it going until 2009 when they will finish our one billion dollar embassy in Iraq,so the hell with GE, Home Depot and all the regular guy stocks.They got theirs and secret killers to back them up.
7-26-2007 @ 4:56PM
Jack F. Doyle said...
Gee, Gordon Gecco and Robber Murdoch have prolly already sold short.They win and the rest of us suckers lose.
The bushes, saudi princes,cheney,rumdumb and wolfabitch hold Carlyle daddy warbucks funds and hope to keep it going until 2009 when they will finish our one billion dollar embassy in Iraq,so the hell with GE, Home Depot and all the regular guy stocks.They got theirs and secret killers to back them up.
7-26-2007 @ 5:28PM
Gina said...
This is nothing new, rich get richer and those of us in the middle take the hit. We want the american dream of owning our own home but are priced right out of the market. We clear 90,000.00 a year and still don't want to pay 2,000.00 a month mortage. Think about it! It is time to get simpler.
7-26-2007 @ 5:11PM
ron said...
Our government has become extremely corrupt and its tentacles reach into every aspect of our lives. The financial markets are controlled by Washington and the biggies ofWall St. At some point they will break free and reflect economic conditions as they really are. For now, it's like the casinos, which at least admit that they are controlled.
7-26-2007 @ 5:21PM
Mike said...
Maybe the market sold off because the Democrats are advocating increasing the tax on capital gains.
7-26-2007 @ 5:23PM
sbuchana3 said...
We used to have a government "by the people" and fo"for the people." Now we have a dictatorship that empowers criminals and wicked individuals who do not
care about the people and who chose not to hear the
people.
7-26-2007 @ 5:19PM
Kim said...
Ha Ha , Ask me if I feel sorry for them. The economy is a mess thanks to the government and the wealthy politicians. These people don't have a clue what the rest of us go through on a daily basis but everytime I turn on the T.V. some economist is saying the economy is healthy. It's healthy and strong for them because they buy our gov't and everyone of these rich bastards is padding their pockets along the way. G
7-26-2007 @ 5:28PM
Kim said...
MONEY BUYS A PLACE IN POLITICS. AND MONEY MAKES MONEY. I'M WAITING TO VOTE FOR AN INDEPENDANT THAT HAS THE PEOPLES BEST INTEREST FIRST AND FOREMOST. REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT . the lesser of two evils. THEY ALL HAVE THEIR OWN PERSONAL AGENDA AND IT ISN'T THE P PEOPLES BEST INTEREST
7-26-2007 @ 5:35PM
Kim said...
RISING HEALTHCARE PREMIUMS,GAS PRICES, HOMES, CORRUPT MORTGAGE LENDERS, THE RIGHTS OF CRIMINALS, POOR EDUCATIONAL VALUES, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, TERRORISM, WALTER REED MEDICAL CENTER, INSURANCE COMPANY RIP OFFS.........WELCOME TO AMERICA. BLAME THE GREED IN CORPORATE AMERICA AND LET'S NOT FORGET TO THANK OUR POLITICIANS
7-26-2007 @ 6:00PM
Lorraine York said...
I could not agree more with all the comments I've read so far. I wish to remind people that 80% of the wealth in this country was and still is based on Real Estate. NO other investment returns 100% on a 10-20% capital investment. As the housing market goes so goes the further eurogin of the middle class. If you live in your home 10years and sell it for what you paid you still lived for Nothing for 10 years.OH! Also 6.5% would have looked great except in the last 5-6 years.My 1st housr was at 9%.
7-26-2007 @ 6:00PM
Dan Collura said...
The Market is for saps. The Market is no better or worse than Belmont Race Track. At the track you narrow your options based on the best information that you have and then place a bet. The Market works on the same principle. Who make the money are not the individual investors but the Fat Cats behind the scenes. Fat Cats like George Soros, Ted Turner, Rupport Murdoch, et.Al., produce profits no matter what the market does. That's why they are billionaires.
Regardless, our financial market is insignificant in regards to world wide events. What is in play here is the movement towards a One World Order. In theory, nations banding who band together economically will depend on one another and thereby significantly reduce the probability of conflict or war.
These are the dreams of One World Order planners like the Jewish immigrant from communist Hungary, George Soros, the manic depressive Ted Turner and others. These dreamers think that by tearing down the USA borders and turning us into a socialist state that feeds the world will bring about a One World Order where not only do they produce even more money but as a side product they increase the standard of living for more citizens of the world.
While Soros, Turner and others play their dangerous delusional games, Red China, Russia and Radical Islam have no intention of playing the "One World Order" game. They plan on world wide domination and the USA is their number one enemy. In their eyes, not only does the USA have to be destroyed economically but we must be obliterated from existence.
Concurrently, there are nations like Germany, France, Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba, Iran, Syria and so forth, who act like parasites hanging onto the skirt of China and Russia. They want to join in and help destroy the USA and the West as we know it.
Does all of this sound bazaar? Do you deny that the billionaire Soros openly advocates a One World Order where the US is subservent to the corrupt and inept United Nations? Do you deny that the number one land owner in the US, Ted Turner, has similar ambitions? Do you deny that Russia, China, Germany and France help every rogue nation on the face of the earth? Where do you think Iran, North Korea and others get their nuclear technology and materials? How does Al Qaida, Hammas and other terror organizations get their sophisticated weapons? Who built Saddamn Hussiens bunkers and provided him with technology for his missiles, etc.?
While you goons are worry about the Market losing 200 points, Soros, Turner, Murdoch and others are working away to destroy our nation. Bush and his cronies are fanatically devoted to tear down our borders in favor of a North American trade alliance with Mexico, Canada and eventually spreading to Central and South America. No more borders. No soveriegnty. They envision a big melting pot of happy pinada busting minions all dependent on each other, smoking dope, running naked through poppy fields with flowers in our hair.
In the meantime, Russia, China and Terrorists are deadly serious about wiping you from the face of the Earth.
It's your choice. Die like a lemming or stand up to the plate and fight for your survival.
No more Clinton's. No more Bush's. Can't we do better?