Today the stock market is getting slammed, with the Dow down over 360 points. In my view, that's because many of the bad things that investors have been worrying about for years are all happening at the same time:
- Spiking oil prices -- a barrel of crude oil was up $1.12 at $77.
- Tanking housing market. Disappointing results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM) and D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) -- squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans -- weighed heavily on the market.
- Drying up of private equity financing -- as I posted earlier today.
Over the last few weeks, these worries have been masked by an onslaught of big mergers. But the mergers aren't happening today. Moreover, if the credit markets decide to turn their back on future deals, the only thing to stop the market from freefalling would be big companies exceeding earnings expectations.
What should you do? Probably nothing if you're in it for the long term, eventually all the bad news will come out and there will be a buying opportunity. But not yet.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned in this post.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
7-26-2007 @ 8:55PM
Wayne said...
One of the reasons the market went down as far as it did is automated stop/loss programs. Once the market turns down and reaches a certain level those programs kick in and accelerate the downward momentum.
For the average Joe who wasn't forced to sell today, this market now provides a tremendous buying opportunity.
You haven't lost any money or made any money until you cash out.
7-26-2007 @ 6:49PM
Dan Collura said...
Many making comments blame the Fed for the Market. The Fed has little to no control over our financial markets.
Only brain dead stupid Liberals think these things. Libs do no produce money. Libs are very needy people and look at the government to be their security blanket. But, who is the government?
The government is you and me. In other words, Liberals, who are truly dysfunctional and lazy people, want the rest of us to bail them out of their slothful and inept ways. They want the rest of us to pay for their health care while they buy $3 Starbuck lattes everyday. You and I have to pay prime rate for our mortgage and in the meantime Liberals, deadbeats and Illegal Immigrants get federal assistance to purchase a new home. Now the market is being flooded with home foreclosures mostly from Liberals who could not afford their home in the first place. The rest of us have to pay for these things. In fact, there are so many foreclosures the Fed (You and me who pay taxes out of our asses) is considering bailing these irresponsible bastards out. The Fed would never consider for one moment giving the rest of us a break. Those of us who produce jobs, produce money and so forth. We are the "rich" that Soros Democrats are talking about. We are the ones that Soros Democrats want to tax even more to pay for more deadbeat Liberals.
Socialism creates a chasm and does not equalize the playing field. Socialism creates animosity and tears away from the human soul. Why work when you don't have to? Suppose none of us worked? Suppose all of us depended on the Fed to bail us out of our irresponsible behavior? What then?
7-26-2007 @ 6:57PM
Dan Collura said...
Liberal Morons: The Market is not being "slammed." On occaision the market has to balance or equalize itself. What do you expect--Record profit levels every day?
Liberals are about as open minded as Joseph Stalin. The Dow made, what, one record gain during the Clinton years and you Lib goofs grovel at his feet thinking that he was a financial genius. The Dow has broken record after record during the Bush years and you jackasses think that the sky is falling.
An open minded Liberal is an oxymoron.
7-26-2007 @ 7:12PM
Dan Collura said...
Who has any sympathy for home builders like the Irvine Company, Pulte, Lennar, etc? These bastards bully farmers, ranchers and others out of their land holdings for a pittance. Then they build cheap, inferior quality homes on top of each other then sell them for outrageous profit margins. They control sales by dribble releasing homes forcing the rest of us to get onto a "Pre-approved" purchase list where we are forced to pay top price for a home. We are then hustled by their in house finance people who use "creative financing" to gouge us. They get you into the home first and then gouge you later.
At the same time these mega billion dollar organizations do little to nothing for the new community infrastructure. The costs of improving the community are passed onto residents. Mellow Roos or community taxes hit the rest of us hard to pay for schools, roads, fire departments and such. In the meantime, these mega corporations rape the land, the community and get huge tax breaks.
Therefore, who in the hell cares if Irvine, Pulte or any other home building corporations have depressed earnings? So what if they lay off workers. They are mostly Illegal aliens who don't pay taxes. They contribute little to nothing to our society and end up taking more from us than they give.
If Liberals are so enamored with the Fed then force government bastards to hold these mega home building corporations accountable to our communities that they construct. Hold them to standards and stop letting them get away with bloody corporate murder.
7-27-2007 @ 6:06AM
hopalong said...
Solution for 2 of our industries with similar problems...sales. Have home builders stage an open house and the first buyer can select the car of his choice from the local car dealer. Both business' cross promote...."Open House weekend".
7-26-2007 @ 9:37PM
Michael Schneider said...
Some longtime market watchers think the tightening of excessive credit markets is good for the economy in the long run. Rough day though. A synopsis of comments by inimitable international investor Barton Biggs on today's stock market action is available for those interested at http://www.Barrelomoney.com
7-26-2007 @ 9:47PM
Elizabeth said...
It's the domino effect. What goes around, comes around.
7-26-2007 @ 11:39PM
maggie may wheaton said...
The REAL problem is not the market in and of itself. It is the media. If we have a gain the make it sound small. If we have a loss or down of any size they make it sound like the end of the world is coming. And then we start to worry and wonder, and then they spout a little more how things are going to hell because...fill in the blank, and on and on. If they would stay positive so would the people and the market.
7-30-2007 @ 2:20PM
kid cognac said...
1. Why does everyone have their panties in a wad? If you remember Econ. 101, This is a "market adjustment". Plus, we are still only a few points away from the "biggest day" on Wall St. If I didn't listen to half-assed news reports, I still would have chaulked it up to profit taking...I know, I know that wasn't the case here. However, forecasts of doom and gloom are unfounded. Just hang in there. The "worm will turn" very shortly.
Posted at 9:45PM on Jul 27th 2007 by ghurkabeast
7-28-2007 @ 9:16AM
Mike Young said...
I agree with everyone but Susan-tell it like it is! LOL