Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has repeatedly claimed that the collapse of the subprime mortgage market was well contained and would not spill over into other credit markets. But in a must-read article, this morning's TheStreet.com suggests otherwise.
At risk are the bonuses of Wall Street bankers who have bet on big fees from financing private equity deals and creating specially designed paper, such as Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) in which hedge funds have invested. Regrettably for them, and those of us who have invested in the stock market, there seems to be much cruddy credit sitting on the books of the banks -- e.g., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) has $72 billion in noninvestment grade debt on its books.
The bottom line is that Bernanke is proving to be dangerously wrong. Credit worries appear to be having the spillover impact he denied would happen back in early spring when subprime threw lenders like New Century into bankruptcy. Now banks are locking up their balance sheets. And the tightening of credit will cut the deal flow on which banker bonuses and a rising stock market depended.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Goldman Sachs.
Savings Experiment: Snow Removal
Why Your 2012 Tax Bill May Jump By $8,000


Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
7-27-2007 @ 10:47AM
Michael Schneider said...
There are also signs that the housing slump is spilling over into more areas. Commentators were saying it wouldn't hit Home Depot-. It has. Yesterday the CEO of Autonation Mike Jackson attributed the housing slump to 80% of the slowdown faced by autos and he said that people who have said there is no connection are totally wrong.
Synopsis of Mike Jackson's comments on autos and the economy are available free in the Speaking of Autos section (light yellow label, near top) at http://www.Barrelomoney.com.
7-27-2007 @ 1:34PM
Duane said...
Our economy is doomed - so get over it - better yet prepare for it. The activity in the stock market is like for play befor the drepressional climax. Buy gold and silver and be ready for all hell to breal loose.
7-27-2007 @ 3:32PM
Duane said...
Bernanke's credibility
Ha - that's an oximoron. I think the word is credit ability instead of credibility.
Duane from New York
7-27-2007 @ 7:06PM
robert greenwood said...
Mr. Bernanke has no practical experience with economics. His background as a Princeton professor is theoretical economics, not practical. He has already been proved wrong in a number of instances. The housing bubble, however, was created by Greenspan, not Bernanke, who inherited it. The housing bubble has now spilled over into other countries, namely Australia, Italy and England. I'm not sure the Fed and even Wall Street realizes how serious this problem may become.
7-27-2007 @ 8:40PM
Steve said...
In regards to Mr. Bernanke, tightening credit is one thing but another interest rate hike in this current economy would be the act of a madman. Greenspan made this same mistake a few years back and caused a deeper than expected recession.
7-28-2007 @ 1:05AM
John Feltman said...
Peter is right, Bernanke is more of the same faulted paradigm that produced 22% short-term rates under Volker circa 1980+. Higher interest rates did not then, nor will it now, deter inflation in a commodity driven inflation over which we have little or no control.
Unfortunately, few in Washington understand the Fed mechanism and even fewer in the financial world. The result: The Federal Reserve maintains its hold on the Monetary function through its power over money supply and interest rates. And deals its smoke and mirrors act through its Open Market Committee. All in the style of a great guru that was honed to perfection by Alan Greenspan. It is time that we give back these functions to the U.S.Treasury where they belong. The Federal Reserve,both the Act that created the Reserve and its 1930 Amendment that created the FOMC have to be reviewed by the best Scientific minds in America. And I am sure that the conclusion will be unanimous as to the much needed changes in who and what controls our monetary policies. The sub-prime mortgage problem was created by the Fed which seems confused as to a solution. I am sure of one thing,higher interest rates is not the solution. Incidently,the problem created by the misuse of ARMs pales in comparison to the credit card debt with 20%+ interest rates + late charges that can only be classified as usury. When this house of cards comes tumbling down,and it will, the price of our failure to challenge the FED and its policies will be a depression similar to the one made worse by the FED in the 1930's.
7-28-2007 @ 2:17AM
Mario said...
Let us make one thing perfectly clear, Mr Bernanke
doesn't have a clue.
7-28-2007 @ 9:15AM
Mike Young said...
Thank you John Feltman-you have been reading my mind.
Do away with the expensive Federal Reserve-un constitutional-back to Treasury where Founding Fathers put it!
Mike Young