Credit contagion cuts Bernanke's credibility


Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has repeatedly claimed that the collapse of the subprime mortgage market was well contained and would not spill over into other credit markets. But in a must-read article, this morning's TheStreet.com suggests otherwise.

At risk are the bonuses of Wall Street bankers who have bet on big fees from financing private equity deals and creating specially designed paper, such as Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) in which hedge funds have invested. Regrettably for them, and those of us who have invested in the stock market, there seems to be much cruddy credit sitting on the books of the banks -- e.g., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) has $72 billion in noninvestment grade debt on its books.

The bottom line is that Bernanke is proving to be dangerously wrong. Credit worries appear to be having the spillover impact he denied would happen back in early spring when subprime threw lenders like New Century into bankruptcy. Now banks are locking up their balance sheets. And the tightening of credit will cut the deal flow on which banker bonuses and a rising stock market depended.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Goldman Sachs.

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