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The market: you can't lose what you don't sell

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Much of the one-day panic about the market was driven by the fear that falling housing prices will hurt consumer confidence. One aspect of that is accurate. As variable rate mortgages reset, people may lose their homes. Unless, of course, the problem become so wide-spread that banks or the Fed decide that mortgage payments need to be underwritten so that homeowners keep their places and the market is not flooded with cheap real estate.

Another reason that investors are worried is the private equity debt is becoming more expensive. Some of the deals for companies like Chrysler or The Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) could fall apart. The other side of that worry is that banks may pull out of the largest and most risky deals. That could cause lawsuits, but save financial institutions from billion dollar loses. It could also take the prices of some stocks that were in the takeover pool down. But, a stock that KKR wanted to buy at $100 may be attractive to investors at $80.

Shareholders who have stocks that have done as well as the S&P 500 over the last two years are up 20%. And that does not include dividends. Those stocks may be worth less than they were a week ago. But, if they have not been sold, that really isn't important.

The current market may be an ugly business for day traders, but it may give them a break from sitting in their basements in the dark all day.

They just might be scared out into the sunlight.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:46 PM

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