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Shelter from the storm: AAPL; AMZN & BIDU

In the declining market, the tech sector has stood out for its relative performance, according to Jospeh Hargett, an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research.

He explains, "Within the tech sector, there are several pockets of opportunity that could provide some nice cover for your portfolio while the storm blows over." Here, he reviews Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), which he believes "appear poised to hold their own going forward."

The advisor says, "At the end of the day, Apple has proven why its shares have vaulted more than 73% since the beginning of the year. As one of the very few stocks that closed in positive territory yesterday, it is easy to see why AAPL makes our 'fallout shelter' list."

The stock, Hargett notes, had some help, though, riding the wave of a solid earnings report (besting the Street's expectations by 20 cents per share). But, he adds, it wasn't the iPhone that propelled earnings to these stellar results; it was the Mac. The company's bread-and-butter line -- he states -- posted its highest quarterly sales ever.

Looking at the sentiment, Hargett says "APPL is a hard stock for contrarians to swallow. Thirteen of the 17 analysts covering the shares rate them a 'buy' or better so there is very little room for improvement among analysts."

The area that could help AAPL the most, he suggests, is on the short-selling front, as more than 3.5% of the stock's float is sold short. The higher the shares go, he concludes, the more these naysayers will be forced to capitulate to the uptrend.

Meanwhile, he adds, "The fact that Amazon.com did not hemorrhage quite as badly at the rest of the market speaks to the stock's technical prowess and potential as a safe haven amid today's volatile environment."

With growing sales, and earnings that more than tripled during the most recent quarter, he points out, the company appears to be on rather firm footing from a fundamental perspective.

Technically speaking, Hargett states, the security has rallied more than 130% since the beginning of the year, surging higher on both of the previous 2 earnings reports.

On the sentiment front, he suggests there is ample proof that there is still plenty of sideline money available to propel AMZN higher despite its recent jump.

He explains, "Short sellers may have decreased their positions by 12% during July, but more than 20% of the stock's float is still sold short. If the trend continues, the resulting buying pressure on AMZN could continue to support the stock's uptrend."

Meanwhile, he adds, those analysts who were shocked by the company's earnings report are still heavily bearish. According to Zacks, 12 of the 17 brokerage firms following Amazon rate it a 'hold' or worse, he reports. Should these analysts have a change of heart in light of the firm's rosy outlook and solid earnings, Hargett notes, additional buying pressure could be brought to the table in the form of an upgrade.

Finally, the advisors states, "We have a little overseas exposure in the tech sector, thrown into the mix for diversity. Baidu.com -- the Chinese Google -- held up remarkably well amid yesterday's heavy selling pressure"

Indeed, he notes, "After the close on July 25, the company blew past the Street's expectations, posting non-GAAP earnings of 57 cents per share. On the news, the stock soared. What's more, since the beginning of the year, BIDU shares have added more than 70%, riding support at their 10-day and 20-day moving averages since mid-April."

Sentiment, he adds, is firmly in the bearish camp for BIDU, which is a real treat from a contrarian perspective. Despite the stock's solid technical and fundamental performance, options players have expressed a distinct preference for puts.

Meanwhile, he suggests, short sellers boosted their positions by more than 15% during July, resulting in nearly 22% of BIDU's float sold short. The recent surge, he notes, is more than likely being influenced by these bearish investors jumping out of their short positions, squeezing the shares that much higher.

Finally, Hargett notes, 6 of the 9 analysts covering BIDU still rate the shares a 'hold' or worse. He suggests, "Naturally, any upgrades from this bearish bunch could further extend BIDU's rally."

The advisor concludes, "So there you have it, a glint of hope in the tech sector for a storm shelter. Take a few breaths, reassess your portfolio, don't panic, and find those pockets of opportunity. When the smoke clears, you could have a couple nice buying opportunities when the pullback is over."

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Last updated: September 05, 2008: 11:21 PM

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