Why two-thirds of Americans think we're in a recession

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Reuters reports that two-thirds of Americans think the U.S. is in, or soon will be in, a recession. This despite the recent report from the Commerce Department that GDP grew 3.4% in the second quarter of 2007.

Are two-thirds of Americans just plain stupid? I don't think so. As John Edwards correctly pointed out during his 2004 run, there are two Americas. The first America -- occupied by hedge fund and private equity grandees, investment bankers, and oil executives -- is a wonderful world where it's easy to make hundreds of millions of dollars a year. For those first Americans, this is truly the best of times.

Then there are the second Americans, the other 99.9%. Unlike the First Americans, they have limited ability to influence economic and tax policy. They have been borrowing on their homes and using credit cards to make up for stagnant wage growth. Meanwhile, their housing, health care, education, and energy bills have been skyrocketing.

For these second Americans, plummeting house prices mean that they can no longer use home equity like an ATM. Many, over a million this year, will be foreclosing on those houses this year. Whether the Commerce Department figures are accurate or not, these people are in their own personal recession.

That's why the 3.4% GDP growth reported for the second quarter does not register with the two-thirds of Americans who think we're in a recession.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: February 10, 2010: 08:04 AM

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