Reuters reports that two-thirds of Americans think the U.S. is in, or soon will be in, a recession. This despite the recent report from the Commerce Department that GDP grew 3.4% in the second quarter of 2007.
Are two-thirds of Americans just plain stupid? I don't think so. As John Edwards correctly pointed out during his 2004 run, there are two Americas. The first America -- occupied by hedge fund and private equity grandees, investment bankers, and oil executives -- is a wonderful world where it's easy to make hundreds of millions of dollars a year. For those first Americans, this is truly the best of times.
Then there are the second Americans, the other 99.9%. Unlike the First Americans, they have limited ability to influence economic and tax policy. They have been borrowing on their homes and using credit cards to make up for stagnant wage growth. Meanwhile, their housing, health care, education, and energy bills have been skyrocketing.
For these second Americans, plummeting house prices mean that they can no longer use home equity like an ATM. Many, over a million this year, will be foreclosing on those houses this year. Whether the Commerce Department figures are accurate or not, these people are in their own personal recession.
That's why the 3.4% GDP growth reported for the second quarter does not register with the two-thirds of Americans who think we're in a recession.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-02-2007 @ 6:15PM
aadaia said...
The information being supplied is manipulated to make the economy appear positive.
The last two years have shown just how imaginative we can make ourselves vulnerable to market conditions.
Excessive real estate escalation in home values.
The media saying! If you don't buy now! forget it!
Inability of home buyers to qualify for a traditional mortgage.
The cost of living for the average american way beyond salaries paid.
Americans are struggling with day to day living.
What is going on ?
People------We need to question and ask why?
People------We need to say no at the check out line!
People------We need to say what are you doing to us
8-02-2007 @ 6:30PM
Sue said...
Totally agree that this country and Wall Street is living on "froth" and lots of positive hype. Inflation is worse than government figures indicate...just get a bill from a doctor or dentist or go shopping at the grocery store. My mechanic just raised his rate from $75 to $81 an hour. Take a close look at where many American companies are making priofits...not in this country. Members of the DJIA made over 48% of profits from outside America!
8-02-2007 @ 6:36PM
Harry said...
Just wait to see how all the ARMS adjust up, creative mortgages and other credit problems catch up with financial institutions. Banks will be rushing to cover-up aggressive schemes. The entire home building and real estate problem has yet to really impact the economy. In fact, it is just starting.
8-02-2007 @ 7:08PM
Big D said...
We need a government that recognizes that there are certain basic human needs, like food, shelter, electricity, education, and health care, that need to be affordable to all Americans. Some people think that the profit motive should apply to all aspects of the economy, but the result is that those with the power to control prices can take advantage of those who need their products or services. So the drug companies can lobby Congress to pass legislation guaranteeing them big profits, resulting in high drug prices. The oil companies can lobby Congress to get tax breaks and energy policies that favor big profits. Need health insurance? It will cost a fortune, hope you can afford it. Don't have health insurance? Better not get sick, or you'll go bankrupt and suffer and die. Can't afford college? Too bad, work at Wal-Mart. We need a government that will do more to help the hard working public solve these problems, instead of just helping the rich get richer.
8-02-2007 @ 8:23PM
Mike said...
The beginning of the end is under way. When the housing/credit bubble burst, all hell will break loose. And most of the blame will be that of the hot spot bankers/lawyers etc who came up with all these creative ways to lend money to people who have no business in the first place of buying a home because they simply cannot afford it. Of course they have pocketed many millions in the process. When the market finally starts to tank, I will personally hold open the door that leads the banker/lawyer to the ledge so he can go down with the market and the US economy. It will take years to recover so sell em while you still can (remember what happened to all the Enron employees), the big boys got their money out and left them holding an empty bag!
8-03-2007 @ 9:09PM
grant said...
oil companies are the number problem high gas
immigration feform second
war in iraq is huge prblem solve these problems things will ge better inhurry
8-03-2007 @ 10:04AM
Bob said...
In tonight's AOL survey, 67% of respondents (50,000+) say they are the same(30%) or better off(37%) than they were a year ago. I guess they are all "hedge fund and private equity grandees, investment bankers, and oil executives." We are in a global economic expansion of unprecedented scale from which the vast majority of Americans are benefitting handsomely. The greatest threats to the continuation of this prosperity and expansion of it to those here who have not fully benefitted are protectionist trade barriers and draining of productive resources through increased taxes, both of which are being threatened by the current Congress.
Bob
8-03-2007 @ 10:31AM
The Genius said...
No surprises here. Americans know from their hearts that they have been over spending, over borrowing, over extending, etc. for the past 10 years. Advertisers have contributed, doing a terrific job convincing people of everything they must purchase and own. Besides foreclosures, the next worst thing about to happen to tens of millions of Americans is the severe change in lifestyle to survival mode. And let's face it, the politicians are mostly hot air, as their income and asset level is untouchable. Bottom line: the Middle Class is hurting worse than ever in history and they are quickly being reduced to lower middle class. Let's get the minimum wage up to $ 9 or $ 10 / hour and give those jobs to americans, not illegal immigrants.
8-03-2007 @ 9:44AM
Mick said...
Did I read the same poll. 66% feel they are the same or better and 58% feel the economy is unpredictable or getting better translates into 46% feel we are going into a recession. Must be the new math.
8-03-2007 @ 11:18AM
G said...
The sky is falling... People, we are in the greatest global expansion ever seen with the U.S. leading the way. One billion Chinese are sucking down KFC and Big Macs like they never saw food before. India is absorbing all of our crappy customer service jobs leaving Americans free to be creative, get smarter and earn more. Latin Americans are so addicted to U.S. products that they come here with empty suitcases to fill up with our goods. Food, energy and services are certainly more expensive but clothes and consumer staples are cheap. Interest rates are so low that any DESERVING AND RESPONSIBLE borrower would be crazy not to leverage some of their assets. Stop demanding necessities from your government. Go purchase them in the open market where efficiencies are created daily.
8-03-2007 @ 12:48PM
G said...
Update! Wells Fargo just raised rates on prime jumbo mortgages from 6.875% to 8.0%. If you have a locked rate, do not allow the lock to expire. Borrow only if necessary.
8-13-2007 @ 8:10PM
John said...
I guess the majority doesn't know what a recession is. It takes 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth to make a recession. We havn't had one quarter lately, much less two of them put together. What a bunch of sour puss pessimists LOL!
8-30-2007 @ 12:36AM
Bill said...
Only persons who have servants to purchase milk, beef, gasoline and heating oil believe inflation is under control.
The very act of increasing interest rates to control inflation causes injury to debtors and only enriches possessors of the capital that is lent. The whole process of controlling inflation is to preserve the value of the money owned and held by the elite. Inflation serves to assist the debtor and is therefore an anathema to bankers and holders of cash equity. The working class American is a dead man walking, and has been for some time. We are simply chattel held as assets against the debt of the country. Hang on working class the misery has not yet begun.