Earnings preview: Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) reports its quarterly and fiscal year earnings on Tuesday. First Call is looking for $0.35 EPS and $9.29 billion revenues. Next quarter estimates are $0.36 EPS and $9.38 billion in revenues. We may get fiscal July-2008 targets, and estimates are $1.55 earnings per share (EPS) and $39.7 billion in revenues, so 2008 expectations are an implied 16.5% gain in EPS and a 14% gain in revenues.

Cisco's shares have held up quite well outside of today, with shares trying to remain above $30.00. But the challenge of the $30.00 stock hurdle goes back to January 2004. Now it has Scientific-Atlanta, Webex, and others under its umbrella. In fiscal 2004 the networking giant posted $22.04 billion in revenues and it is expected to have roughly $34.75 billion for this fiscal year (and estimated at $39.7 billion for 2008). The company has also been retiring stock in a big way, even though this last buyback announcement right before earnings seems odd timing.

The average analyst price target is now around $32.00 to $33.00. Back in January, we ran some forward valuations and the scenario that could give Cisco shares a $34.00 stock price mid-year. It is not fair to use options pricing as an estimate several days ahead of the event with erosion of time value and harder in a volatile market, but as of today it appears that options traders are prepared for the stock to move up to 3% in either direction. Cisco was also one of Jim Cramer's TOP PICKS FOR 2007.

Here is a May 8 preview I gave if you want to see any comparisons to then. Shares ended the last quarter under $27.00, so the stock is up about 11% since then ahead of today's sale.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.