steady at 5.25%.The Fed seemed to justify this decision by saying they expect "solid growth in employment and incomes" in coming quarters -- factors that would indicate economic health. The Fed also managed to acknowledge that the forming "credit crunch" has forced the housing market lower and increased the stock market's volatility. As such, if these conditions became worse the Fed could justify cutting rates.
There's a growing group of Wall Streeters advocating that Chairman Ben Bernanke begins cutting rates due to inflation risks and credit worries shortly. Lower rates allow people to borrow money at lower costs, allowing them to purchase new houses and keep demand steady in the housing market. But due to higher rates, these people argue, foreclosures are going to continue to increase as people can't support their mortgage payments -- a move that could propel the entire economy into a recession. In addition, higher interest rates stand to weaken the consumer as cheap credit is no longer available. In fact, Jim Cramer himself came on CNBC and yelled seemed to yell his anger out towards anyone who would listen.
Barring unusual circumstances, I highly doubt Bernanke will cut interest rates within the next few months. However, if a true recession begins to appear via an even weaker housing market, very troubled consumer, and employment/income issues, Bernanke will make the right move and cut the Fed Funds Rate.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-07-2007 @ 5:57PM
Mark Van Patten said...
Cramer is an entertainer right? He gets on a low rated cable network for a few minutes and everybody is buzzing about it.
Who would have thought this approach would work in the stodgy investment business? I guess you want to run with the cool kid.
8-07-2007 @ 7:05PM
DayNovo said...
Nine times in a row now that the Fed rate has stayed unchanged. Will Bernanke ever move the dial?
For more analysis click here:
http://sneakybusiness.typepad.com/sneaky/2007/08/fed-leaves-rate.html
8-07-2007 @ 11:19PM
Andrew Horowitz said...
The Fed should also pull into focus the share buyback problem... I have been pounding the table regarding this issue. It seems to me if you attribute EPS growth to buybacks (enormous buybacks) and all eyes are on earnings, I question what will happen when, and if, buybacks stop...
A great article was written by Howard Silverblatt, Senior Market Analyst at S&P that shows the extent of the buybacks in the US markets. Would you be interested to find out that in 2006 on share buybacks within S&P 500 companies were $432 billion than the United States government spent on Medicare $408 billion? 2007 is looking to smash all records....
Also according to S&P, "buybacks, while adding to short-term returns, are temporary in nature if the shares are not retired - which they have not been. Cash build-ups that are now being used to supplement earnings via interest income and reduce share count are not a substitute for operating earning and, as such, should not be priced into future earnings or multiples."
Link to S&P article: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/072106_SP500_HIDDEN_ASSETS_Rept.pdf?vregion=us&vlang=en
Link to Podcast with S&P's Howard Silverblatt: http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2007/08/05/tdi-podcast-21/
Something to ponder... Where do we go from here?
Andrew