2007: Echoes of 1957?

Posted Aug 8th 2007 3:00PM by Michael Panzner
Filed under: Other Issues, Magazines, China, Indices, Market Matters, Money and Finance Today, Technical Analysis, Oil, Housing

This week's U.S. News & World Report, (August 13) features a series of articles collectively entitled "1957 -- A Year That Changed America Culturally, Scientifically, and Politically."

In the issue the magazine "takes a look at this seminal year -- one that planted the roots for a new America." Among the reports included:

"Eisenhower Confronts a Political and Moral Crisis in Little Rock"
"Sen. Strom Thurmond Sets a Filibuster Record to Hold Off Integration"
"With Launch of Sputnik, the Soviets Open a New Frontier and Ignite the Space Race"
"John Glenn Orbits the Earth, Setting Another Record"
"The Dodgers Move to California, and the World Follows"
"From the Wreckage of World War II Came a Vision for a Unified Europe"
"The Bloody Battle of Algiers Demonstrated a Terrorist Playbook"
"Ghana's Independence Set Off a Chain of Freedom in Africa"
"The Edsel Went From Wundercar to Laughingstock"
"The Laser Beam Revolutionized Medicine and Industry"

With the bursting of the credit, housing, and other bubbles, growing evidence of the United States' declining economic, political, social, and cultural influence on the world stage, China's emergence as a competing superpower, and increasing acceptance of the potential threats posed by peak oil, global warming, and competition for basic resources, one could say that 2007 is turning out to be something of a pivotal year for America, too.

With that in mind, I went back and looked at how share prices fared during 1957. In my opinion, the way things unfolded five decades ago seems more than a little reminiscent of what we've seen in the S&P 500 index so far this year .

To recap what happened before: after a relatively solid first half, the stock market formed a classic broadening top from May through July. This rare pattern is symptomatic of an emotional trading environment where the inmates seem to running the asylum. After support was breached, prices fell sharply, hitting new 52-week lows in early October, and the market ended the year on a sour note.

It is too soon to say for sure whether history will repeat itself, or if the seeming parallels with what happened fifty years ago are largely a figment of my imagination. Nevertheless, in some respects at least, it seems that 2007 has echoes of 1957.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

Tags: 1957, 2007, China, housing, peak oil, PeakOil, subprime, US News and World Report, UsNewsAndWorldReport

Print this

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

8-10-2007 @ 2:49PM

Charlie said...

John Glenn did not orbit the earth in 1957. That was the year Sputnik was launched by the USSR. Manned flight came later.

8-09-2007 @ 12:57PM

Ron said...

John Glenn orbit was 1962...but the real question what else (in the document) is wrong? It becomes a credibility issue.

8-09-2007 @ 11:16AM

Michael Panzner said...

The U.S. News & World report article title/link on the website is slightly misleading. Here are the first four paragraphs:

"In January 1957, John Glenn, who had flown dive bombers and fighter planes in World War II and Korea, was eager for a break from his first desk job. So the Marine major lobbied his superiors to promote a plane he had tested, the F8U Crusader, by trying to set a record for the fastest flight across the United States.

"At 6:04 a.m. on July 16, Glenn soared off from Los Alamitos Naval Air Station in California. He activated the warplane's reconnaissance camera and took the initial frame of what would become the first continuous panorama of the United States. Three hours, 23 minutes, and 8.4 seconds later, he landed at Floyd Bennett Field in New York, breaking the previous record by 21 minutes.

"'Project Bullet'—he flew faster than a bullet from a .45-caliber pistol—made Glenn a minor celebrity. But on October 4, his accomplishment was eclipsed when the launch of Sputnik turned the world's eyes spaceward. Glenn looked up and saw his future. Soon he was volunteering to sit in centrifuges to help scientists determine how many G-forces rocket pilots could handle. It was one step toward becoming an astronaut and the first American to orbit Earth.

Glenn, who later served as U.S. senator from Ohio, is now 86, still fit and sharp. He recently talked with U.S. News's Kim Clark about his famous flight.

8-09-2007 @ 11:26AM

Bruce K. said...

Lasers hadn't revolutionized anything in 1957. Research had just begun with experiments in metal cutting. No one had much of an idea where this technology would lead us.

8-09-2007 @ 11:29AM

Bruce K. said...

Lasers hadn't revolutionized anything in 1957. Research had just begun with experiments in metal cutting. No one had much of an idea where this technology would lead us.

8-09-2007 @ 12:55PM

Joseph Leslie said...

I remember the launch of Sputnick and how it shook the world up. The US was no longer the leader. The Russians beat us. I was in second grade and we talked about what had happened and worried that the Russians might use their technology to orbit nuclear weapons that would be used to blackmail the United States into submission to their goal of world domination.
Life was simpler (no HIV) and the world was much smaller!