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2007: Echoes of 1957?

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This week's U.S. News & World Report, (August 13) features a series of articles collectively entitled "1957 -- A Year That Changed America Culturally, Scientifically, and Politically."

In the issue the magazine "takes a look at this seminal year -- one that planted the roots for a new America." Among the reports included:

  • "Eisenhower Confronts a Political and Moral Crisis in Little Rock"
  • "Sen. Strom Thurmond Sets a Filibuster Record to Hold Off Integration"
  • "With Launch of Sputnik, the Soviets Open a New Frontier and Ignite the Space Race"
  • "John Glenn Orbits the Earth, Setting Another Record"
  • "The Dodgers Move to California, and the World Follows"
  • "From the Wreckage of World War II Came a Vision for a Unified Europe"
  • "The Bloody Battle of Algiers Demonstrated a Terrorist Playbook"
  • "Ghana's Independence Set Off a Chain of Freedom in Africa"
  • "The Edsel Went From Wundercar to Laughingstock"
  • "The Laser Beam Revolutionized Medicine and Industry"

With the bursting of the credit, housing, and other bubbles, growing evidence of the United States' declining economic, political, social, and cultural influence on the world stage, China's emergence as a competing superpower, and increasing acceptance of the potential threats posed by peak oil, global warming, and competition for basic resources, one could say that 2007 is turning out to be something of a pivotal year for America, too.

With that in mind, I went back and looked at how share prices fared during 1957. In my opinion, the way things unfolded five decades ago seems more than a little reminiscent of what we've seen in the S&P 500 index so far this year .

To recap what happened before: after a relatively solid first half, the stock market formed a classic broadening top from May through July. This rare pattern is symptomatic of an emotional trading environment where the inmates seem to running the asylum. After support was breached, prices fell sharply, hitting new 52-week lows in early October, and the market ended the year on a sour note.

It is too soon to say for sure whether history will repeat itself, or if the seeming parallels with what happened fifty years ago are largely a figment of my imagination. Nevertheless, in some respects at least, it seems that 2007 has echoes of 1957.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
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S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:50 PM

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