We have been talking a lot about the weak housing market lately, and this morning we get another sign of just how bad things are with luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) warning it will see a huge decrease in its quarterly revenues.
The Pennsylvania-based home builder has not yet released official numbers, but will be hosting a quarterly outlook conference call today at 2:00 PM EDT about the fiscal third quarter ended July 31.
The company, which reports earnings August 22, expects revenue to fall 21 percent to about $1.21 billion based on preliminary estimates. Toll also said it wasn't comfortable giving earnings guidance.
This can't be a good sign.
Not only is the company preparing investors for a weak fiscal third quarter, it also is setting the stage for more weakness in future quarters. In this morning's announcement, Chief Executive Robert Toll said that uncertainties in the mortgage market right now could continue to lower the pace of home sales moving forward.
Surprisingly, the stock is trading higher in pre-market trading, but I would not be surprised to see this reverse once the market opens up and Wall Street's big boys get into the action.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-08-2007 @ 10:16AM
Tom said...
It'll get WORSE before it gets better. LOTS of excesses still need to be worked out of the home builders, loan and credit markets.
8-12-2007 @ 8:15PM
John Palazzini said...
THe housing market is in its death throws. Even in places like Los Angeles, Miami and San Francisco, where the market was thought to be insulated from this debacle, prices are falling, things are getting worse by the day, and the financial markets are reacting violently. What did the greedy lenders think would happen when the moron BUSH allowed them to float risky mortgages? Its all coming home to roost now.........and its only the beginning. We are spiraling down the sewer to become a 3rd world country.
9-11-2007 @ 5:24PM
lefrog1928 said...
The culprits are the lenders. They should have investigated the assets and income of each of the borrowers. If they didn't qualify for a loan, they should have denied it.
As far as the loanees is concerned they took advantage of the stupidity of the banks and other lending institutions. They should not complain; they were lucky to have lived for a certain period in a place they could not afford otherwise.
Claudius
8-12-2007 @ 8:55PM
Moon bat said...
Its the begining of the Great Depression all over again, and wouldn't you know it there is a Republican in the white House to. Just like 1929.
8-12-2007 @ 9:10PM
mike said...
Hey John.... I'm with you. especially about the moron Bush.
8-12-2007 @ 9:27PM
Howard said...
Well I have seen and even done work on some Toll Brothers sites and I can't believe the cheap work that some trades get away with. I have never seen brick work this bad ever. Funny how they want so much money for these homes but put out such a bad product. I cant believe people buy them.
8-12-2007 @ 9:45PM
paul mitchell said...
You Clowns,
If it rains , Blame bush, if it snows blame bush. If a bridge built by the democrats falls down, blame bush.
This housing fiasco started when a few thousand people had their homes ruined in a few hurricanes. They were giving what anyone was asking because they needed a roof over their heads, Real estate agents were being born every second and all driving bmws etc. When they rebuilt their homes and moved back in, all the overpriced homes went back on the market,,,and here we are.
8-12-2007 @ 9:59PM
Dutcher said...
LOL, guess there are yet some who take umbrage at "blaming" the Bush reign..but face it..his reign helped to stack the deck in favor of corporates sorts who felt unfettered by rules/regulations and let greed take over as well under the guise of being good , sound biz for growing the economy..Its been a PONZEE scheme, taken full advantage of and now collapsing , but of course do NOT attribute any to the bushlers reigning!!! (will add in thou, a good many of the elected Dems as well rolled over and played dead in the water /etc and allowed much to be done, always whining they could do little as were not the majority/blah/blah but that does NOT explain their "yea" votes in place of at least registering "nays" to show dissenting position...)
8-12-2007 @ 10:43PM
Ellen said...
Only a total idiot thinks that the president whether he be dem. or rep. controls all things. Everyone has to have someone to blame for their own failures. Back in the '90's anybody and everybody could get a credit card and they did and charge, charge, charge they did. I have learned many things the hard way and now I'd rather save and own what I buy when I leave the store. Housing is the same. For the past few years realtors could find a loan for anyone-no matter what-and people did buy, buy, buy, often times much more than they could afford-hence foreclosures rose and banks pulled back. Now some want to blame government officials because they were too dumb to buy only what they could afford. Didn't anybody's Mama tell them that they don't have to have a big house, two SUV's, motorcycles, a boat and that Junior and Sally don't need to go to soccer, scouts, music, karate and whatever else that might be on the agenda. Everthing in moderation folks. Buy the house you can afford and be proud of it, drive the car you can afford and take care of it and let your children occupy themselves sometimes so they don't grow up dull-witted like their parents. If you take two incomes and stretch them to the limit you are in one hell of a mess if something happens to one income. Somewhere you've got to give yourself some wiggle room.
8-12-2007 @ 11:21PM
joe steinhardt said...
the problem today is the lenders and realitors jaming the market down everybodys throat,and the greed of us americans who think they can spend more then they can afford. have a nice day. OH! I AM A DEMOCRAT TOO.
8-13-2007 @ 12:05AM
kevin said...
a few cities down south getting flooded didnt affect house prices this much. im working in a custom cabinet shop in connecticut and the nicest thing in my town that i have seen that my entire monthly income will pay for not including tax or utilities is an 1890s 2 family with no heat and needing serious updating located on the edge of section 8 housing (state pays these peoples rents). mexicans are getting their way over our legal system were fighting for other countries and shipping out tons of food when our own people are dying of hunger and i work with a guy that lives off the state for rent and he works....but his wife stays home so they can collect because their income is low. meanwhile hes at the casino every weekend. and our company lost 3 guys 2 weeks ago because they worked here for a few years, banked their cash in mexico and now theyve got 3000 sq. ft houses with pools and nice yards. not to mention those guys were doing the job that i wanted to be doing. who got screwed by the system here. the hard working american. they were also on various types of state assistance
8-13-2007 @ 12:20AM
steve said...
Hi joe steinhardt. I am a Realtor not a Realitor. And, by the way paul mitchell I drive an Audi not a BMW.
Stop putting blame on everyone but the stupid people who sign anything as long as they get instant satisfaction. If it's too good to be true....beware!
The Fed's encouraged borrowing by almost anyone under almost any circumstance with unbelievably lax programs. They were concocted on almost a daily basis, waved in front of borrowers like free drugs to an addict. The discount rate has been raised 17 times in a row. Now no one knows what to do? Here is the answer, lower rates, create some bail out programs and stop all of the bad press.
8-13-2007 @ 1:44AM
Wolfster said...
Toll Bros. is the worst; they ruined lands in the PA countryside that had been beautiful since the revolutionary war and then moved on like greedy locusts to slap up their particle-board palaces in the rest of the country. I would love to see them go bankrupt. And didn't those Bushes have their nasty fingers in the last round of housing loans gone bad? The difference now is the idiot's in charge and the potential for financial disaster is exponentially greater.
8-13-2007 @ 3:52AM
alan said...
IT IS CONVENIENT TO BLAME BUSH FOR ADULTS WHO MAKE BAD DECISIONS, I LOST MY HOME TO FORECLOSURE 4 YEARS AGO DUE TO LACK OF WORK IN THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY THANKS TO THE DEMOCRATS WHO STARTED CLOSING DOWN NUKE POWER PLANTS,SEPT 11TH, AND I DONT BLAME BUSH FOR MY FINANCIAL SITUATION , NOR DO I BLAME THE DAMNOCRAT LIBERALS. THANK GOD AL GORE WAS'NT IN OFFICE OR WE'D HEAR PLEASE OSAMA BIN LADEN DO'NT GET MAD AT US MY AMERICAN HERITAGE HELPED ME COME BACK FIGHTING FOR MY FAMILY NOT COWERING AND CURSING, GOD BLESS THE AMERICAN DREAM.
8-13-2007 @ 3:54AM
alan said...
I LOST MY HOME ALMOST 5 YEARS AGO BECAUSE OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS NOT BECAUSE BUSH WAS IN OFFICE ! THE DEMOCRAT LIBERALS CLOSED DOWN SOME REACTORS IN THE NUKE INDUSTRY AND I DID'NT BLAME THEM FOR MY FINANCES, NO I MADE DO THE BEST I COULD, BUT SEPT 11TH WAS TOO MUCH TO HANDLE AT THE TIME, NUKE PLANTS FOCUSED ON SECURITY NOT REFUELING, SO THE DRY SPELL LASTED TILL I FACED FORECLOSURE, THANKFULLY MY FAMILY IS DOING WELL TODAY, BECAUSE I LEARNED FROM MY MISTAKES! THIS COUNTRY IS STRONG BECAUSE WE'RE BRAVE NOT BECAUSE OF WEAK MINDED MENTAL MIDGETS THAT JUMP ON THE BLAME IT ON BUSH BANDWAGON !
8-13-2007 @ 4:29AM
alan said...
WAKE UP FELLOW COUNTRYMEN! STOP BUYING INFERIOR CRAP FROM RETAILERS THAT SELL COUNTERFEIT AMERICAN NAMED, BUT FOREIGN OUTSOURCED PRODUCTS, OUTSOURCING IS KILLING OUR CHILDRENS FUTURE ! DEMAND WHATS RIGHT !DONT ACCEPT SHODDY BUILT HOMES,FOREIGN GROWN FOOD,SLOPPY SERVICE FROM ANY BUSINESS,LIVE WITHIN YOUR BUDGETS,BOYCOTT BUSINESSES THAT KNOWINGLY HIRE QUESTIONABLE EMPLOYEES,OR SELL QUESTIONABLE PRODUCTS,OR BUSINESSES THAT CAUSE DRAINS ON OUR RESOURCES BECAUSE THEY'RE EXPLOITING THEIR WORKERS FOR HUGE PROFIT AT THE EXPENSE OF BOTTOMLINE OVER COMMON DECENCY !IF YOU VOTED SOMEONE IN OFFICE HOLD THEIR FEET TO THE FIRE IF THEY DONT DELIVER WHAT THEY PROMISED AND YOU KNOW THEY CAN DELIVER ON THEIR WORD, HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE OR HAUL THEM OUT ON ELECTION DAY ! AMERICA MAKE A STAND ON HOLDING THOSE RESPONSIBLE ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS!
8-13-2007 @ 5:20AM
rm said...
the housing situation was bound to happen, there were too many bad examples set, low interest loans, adjustable rates, shows on flipping houses, realators setting a continous upward spiral of prices, and assessors following in their footsteps---- come on people you have to take responsibility for yourselves, it's not someone elses fault it's yours----- and the president dosen't set the fed rate that's done by a completely seperate department not controled in any way by the president, sure everyone wants the American dream, but you have to use good judgement!!!!!!!!!
8-13-2007 @ 7:13AM
Caterina Pryde said...
Why does anyone think AL Gore would cosy up to Osama bin Laden?? Or have rolled over? The man actually went to war and got some fruit salad! At least he has some idea what it's like.
8-15-2007 @ 5:05PM
Steven Danis said...
If there is any one person who played a pivotal role in both the great housing boom of the 2000's and its subsequent bust, it is Alan Greenspan. Greenspan made a series of dramatic interest rate cuts in January of 2001, just at the time of Bush's taking over as president. In the wake of 9/11 Greenspan expanded on those cuts, knocking rates down to the lowest they had been seen in decades. Suddenly there was a vast pool of capital available at Depression level rates, and lenders of all sorts jumped in, eager to lend to everyone and anyone, as long as they could enjoy the favorable spreads between what they were paying to depositors and what they were charging borrowers. Even though wages and salaries for the most part were growing slowly, usually at or less than the rate of inflation, the lack of real buying power was made up for by a scale of personal indebtedness never seen before in our history, often to people of questionable credit. Houses became not just shelter and a long term investment, but a source of short term cash by all sorts of secondary mortgages. The residential real estate boom lasted about 5 years in most places, and I expect it will take years to unravel by the usual means of forced sales and foreclosures for a stable point to be reached again.