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Why we should cut the mortgage industry in half

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Yesterday Ben Bernanke acknowledged he was wrong when he said in May that the subprime meltdown was contained. That doesn't mean he would cut interest rates to ease the pain. Meanwhile, yesterday's Wall Street Journal [subscription required] wrote an excellent article on the origins and evolution of the current credit crunch.

I believe that the pain of the current credit contraction in mortgages is just beginning to be felt throughout the world. As I suggested during my CNBC interview with Maria Bartiromo on Monday, 47% of the $1.3 trillion subprime mortgages issued were liar loans -- that is, the borrowers did not document their income when they got the loan. But thanks to the way the mortgage industry is now structured, I think at least half of these loans should never have been made.

What's the problem? Thanks to a process called securitization -- which took off in the 1980s -- lenders can make more profit than ever when they extend credit to a borrower who wants to purchase a home. Instead of making a loan and keeping it on their books as they did in the past, lenders get a fee for closing the mortgage deal then they sell it to an investment bank that packages the mortgage with others and sells the package to institutional investors -- such as hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies.

When housing prices are rising and interest rates are low, everybody is better off:

  • The mortgage originators make money without risk since they don't need to worry about whether the borrower will pay back the loan;
  • The borrower gets to live in a house as long as he or she makes the monthly payments;
  • The investment bank makes fees for packaging and selling the securities backed by the mortgages;
  • The mortgage servicer gets a fee for sending out a bill, collecting the payments from borrowers and sending them to securities holders;
  • The credit rating firm gets a fee from the investment bank for issuing a favorable credit report;
  • The institutional investors can book income from their investments;
  • The home building industry makes money off all the new homes; and
  • Politicians use the increase in home ownership rates to boost their reelection prospects.

What gets lost in all this money making is a fundamental truth: Mortgages exist because most people cannot afford to buy a home without them. And in the case of subprime mortgages, the gap between the cost of a home and what a home buyer can afford is so wide that lying about a borrower's income has been institutionalized.

So when housing prices drop and mortgage rates rise, mortgage industry participants feel the burn as follows:

  • The mortgage originators go bankrupt because the investment banks that provide them with the wholesale loans they need to issue mortgages cut them off -- this is what happened to New Century and others;
  • The borrower can no longer afford the payments and is forced to foreclose -- two million will do so by the end of 2008;
  • The investment bank loses a huge revenue stream and gets hurt by its subprime hedge funds -- as has The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC);
  • The mortgage servicer loses some of its revenue stream to foreclosures;
  • The credit rating firm suffers damage to its reputation and loses the revenue from rating future deals as the market dries up;
  • The institutional investors are forced to recognize that many of their investments are worthless -- as did Sowood;
  • The home builders experience big revenue drops and suffer huge losses as have many of the leading names; and
  • Politicians try to distance themselves from what's happening or introduce new regulations.

I do not think we have seen the bulk of the financial damage from all these failures. Specifically, there is no information available about how much institutional investors will lose when they account accurately for the lost value of the mortgage-backed securities they bought.

When all the damage has been exposed there will be a rightful sense of indignation about what happened and pressure to keep it from happening again. Here's what I would do:

  • Prevent borrowers from taking loans if they cannot document their income. This would eliminate the 47% of liar loans in the subprime pool. These borrowers would not be able to get mortgages so they would need to rent, rather than buy. Or they would need to buy a home they could afford.
  • Require lenders to clearly disclose all fees and resets. Mortgage contracts tend to be very long documents filled with fine print. Unless the borrower is a real estate attorney, there is a risk that these long documents will bury key information. If all fees and reset terms and rates are disclosed in a very clear single page then borrowers will be less likely to get tricked into taking on a mortgage they can't really afford.
  • Prohibit institutional investors from valuing mortgage-backed securities based on the credit rating. Institutional investors should be required to disclose to the public every day the current market value of their mortgage-backed securities. This value should be based on the actual cash flows they receive each day or the price at which they change hands in the market. The overstated value of these securities is hiding big problems. But if investors don't know the true value of these securities, they should not be issued in the first place.

If my proposals passed, fewer people would own homes and the lower level of borrowing would cause home prices to drop. However, we will see over the next months that borrowing more money than people can afford to pay back causes pain in the long term that exceeds the short term feelings of euphoria.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 09:21 PM

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