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Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM)

Plenty of investment guru's have suggested buying on fear and selling when greed reaches its pinnacle. Well I think the fear side is self evident but I'm not hearing about many analysts who are brave enough to buy right now. As a matter of fact I only hear that this would be a very foolish time to invest in the financial sector, in particular, any stocks with sub-prime or "Alt-A" mortgage exposure.

For this reason, contrarian that I am, I thought I would speak out about my recent BAD CALLS, or at least very premature calls, and start tracking them for all to see -- accepting the ribbing, tomato-throwing and blunt comments about the error of my ways.

I own four of the five stocks I will be following for the next year, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: IMB), Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP), and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). I wrote favorable comments on each and in the case of WM, more than once. Needless to say, I am under water on all of them. I do not own Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) but it will make for a fine pace car in the middle of this storm.

I have no crystal ball and clearly blundered here, at least in the short term, but if I had to wager, I'd say this group will be higher in 12 months' time rather than lower. And I have put my money where my mouth is. I am not for one moment suggesting that small investors, or those without the emotional (or financial) wherewithal to take losses follow my lead. This will simply be a test of the fear/greed scenario and my belief that both good news and bad overshoot the mark frequently.

Yesterday I wrote Dow down 387 - still preaching calm and change and the following were the closing prices for the five stocks discussed here and in earlier stories.

  • Bear Sterns: $114.05
  • Countrywide Financial: $28.66
  • IndyMac: $20.58
  • Popular: $12.50
  • Washington Mutual: $36.76

It is not easy to expose yourself to public ridicule and watch the stock value of your most recent portfolio be in the red. Perhaps I am still too arrogant because all my others are firmly in the black and beating the market. In any event one of my partners suggested to me that I may have to eat humble pie sooner rather than later. A large slice has been duly served up.

For comparison, I am going to add yesterday's closing of some market darlings (and those of my colleagues) as well as the DJIA. All are NASDAQ stocks in contrast to most of the NYSE financials. These four companies have very strong stocks, so the comparison might not be particularly fair, but I like a challenge.

As I write this piece I can't help but be reminded how often bravery and foolishness go hand in hand. Stay tuned each month and let's see how this story plays out.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well -- INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

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Last updated: December 03, 2008: 01:13 AM

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