Plenty of investment guru's have suggested buying on fear and selling when greed reaches its pinnacle. Well I think the fear side is self evident but I'm not hearing about many analysts who are brave enough to buy right now. As a matter of fact I only hear that this would be a very foolish time to invest in the financial sector, in particular, any stocks with sub-prime or "Alt-A" mortgage exposure.
For this reason, contrarian that I am, I thought I would speak out about my recent BAD CALLS, or at least very premature calls, and start tracking them for all to see -- accepting the ribbing, tomato-throwing and blunt comments about the error of my ways.
I own four of the five stocks I will be following for the next year, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: IMB), Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP), and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). I wrote favorable comments on each and in the case of WM, more than once. Needless to say, I am under water on all of them. I do not own Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) but it will make for a fine pace car in the middle of this storm.
I have no crystal ball and clearly blundered here, at least in the short term, but if I had to wager, I'd say this group will be higher in 12 months' time rather than lower. And I have put my money where my mouth is. I am not for one moment suggesting that small investors, or those without the emotional (or financial) wherewithal to take losses follow my lead. This will simply be a test of the fear/greed scenario and my belief that both good news and bad overshoot the mark frequently.
Yesterday I wrote Dow down 387 - still preaching calm and change and the following were the closing prices for the five stocks discussed here and in earlier stories.
-
Bear Sterns: $114.05
-
Countrywide Financial: $28.66
-
IndyMac: $20.58
-
Popular: $12.50
-
Washington Mutual: $36.76
It is not easy to expose yourself to public ridicule and watch the stock value of your most recent portfolio be in the red. Perhaps I am still too arrogant because all my others are firmly in the black and beating the market. In any event one of my partners suggested to me that I may have to eat humble pie sooner rather than later. A large slice has been duly served up.
For comparison, I am going to add yesterday's closing of some market darlings (and those of my colleagues) as well as the DJIA. All are NASDAQ stocks in contrast to most of the NYSE financials. These four companies have very strong stocks, so the comparison might not be particularly fair, but I like a challenge.
-
My favorite stock is Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG): $201.30
-
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13,270.68
As I write this piece I can't help but be reminded how often bravery and foolishness go hand in hand. Stay tuned each month and let's see how this story plays out.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well -- INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-11-2007 @ 12:01AM
Theodor said...
Where is the bottom? Someone has to make the first step...may be the banks...I say YES ..I have the solution but a good idea could cost a lot....
8-11-2007 @ 12:55PM
Beltway Greg said...
Sheldon,
Apple will rise again, but why didn't you thank me for APH? Also, you couldn't see the drop in anything or anyone related to subprimes? Sticking with Countrywide is insane. The market isn't really that bad? We are seeing a fairly standard liquidity problem. Read the book, "The Devil in the Design." Very boring but a great textbook for understanding market excess and how sure things put large banks in the grave. Gentle Ben needs to have a conference call with all of the large banks and hedge funds and calculate the worst case scenario. The longer he ignores this the longer folks will remain fearful. He needs to make some type of public statement. I love APH because it gains when the dollar drops. Nevertheless, betting on a rebound in the banking sector is wishful thinking indeed considering that many of their near term profits may have been as a result of the cheap money.
Beltway Greg on vacation in Jackson Hole
8-11-2007 @ 10:32PM
jgallagher said...
I'm in wholesale mortgage business and I've seen first hand the stupid lending WAMA,Countrywide, and Indymac have done in the last several years. I'm seeing today that their borrowers can't refinance, because their credit is bad or they own more on the loan than the house is worth, can 't sell for the same reason. These guys are hiding a ton of potential losses and the blood is just starting to flow.
8-12-2007 @ 10:31PM
Beltway Greg said...
Oops, the book, "A Demon of our own Design" by Richard Bookstaber. Something about the thin air. Actually, not that dull....interesting inclusion of Three Mile Island, the meltdown in Chernobyl, and an interesting disection of the Dutch tulip bulb mania.
Beltway Greg
"My Heroes have always been fund managers"
8-14-2007 @ 9:08AM
frank said...
I think you are too concentrated on one sector!
Check CFC's insiders
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/25191.htm
Good luck!
8-14-2007 @ 10:40PM
Joseph Lindsay said...
I was defrauded by the Washington Mutual Bounce Protection scheme. When I researched Washington Mutual, I found 1,000s of complaints of fraud, wrongful foreclosures, actions by attorneys general in many states, articles in the New York Times alleging more than $1,000,000,000 taken in fraudulent fees just in 2003, an article in Business Week entitled "Is this any way to Run a Bank, a local television exposé here in Dallas, an "F" rating for fraud by the Los Angeles Better Business Burea, etc.
All the while many analysts were gushing over Washington Mutual stock.
I would be intrigued to know how this enthusiasm among some analysts was sustained in light of well and widely reported accounts of the scale of Washington Mutual's fraud, etc.
Did the analysts not do their homework and were not aware of the information? Did they not believe the information? Did they discount the information and think Washington Mutual had become so big and strong it could get away with wrongdoing on this scale and still prosper? Were the analysts bribed?
It seemed clear to me that Washington Mutual would probably implode Enron/WorldCom style and I'm not even a professional analyst.
Any one understand what was going on?
8-16-2007 @ 3:11PM
Kirstie said...
Unfortunately, I have been a customer of Wamu for years, and yes, they overcharge their customers with all of their "free" services. I have spent thousands and thousands of dollars on these fees, which could have been reversed by the manager. They are living on these fees, and don't care one bit about their customer base. I believe they are in total survival mode, and will take money out of anyone they can just to survive their poor portfolio lending. their customer service is an F. I would bet against them anyday.
8-20-2007 @ 8:49PM
ak47 said...
Kristie, when you are right ...you are right. But what can we do?
11-02-2007 @ 2:41PM
dan said...
Frank,
You are abso right.