Confusing potential with value
One of my colleagues at BloggingStocks is Georges Yared, a great growth stock picker who is well-known throughout the investing world. But from reading Mr. Yared's posts, I've found several issues with his thinking as of late.
While he does show discipline to buying below his price targets, I think that some of his ideas don't make sense for long-term investors and he neglects to explain the risks involved in the potential investments. In a recent post, Yared spoke about two of his favorite ideas: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX).
Apple is indisputably a great company with incredible product momentum. In a recent post, I discussed why I believed Apple is quite exposed to a correction but I had no disputes with the strength of the underlying company. On the other hand, I think that Apple was, and remains, 'priced to perfection.' This simply implies that any earnings report or guidance figure which Wall Street interprets negatively will kill the stock. Analysts will be forced to cut earnings per share estimates, thus cutting price targets. To compound the problem, the multiple will be forced to contract due to 'less operating visibility' and 'signs of slowing momentum.' While this certainly isn't a definite or easily predicted event, the risk remains very viable.
Crocs is a whole different story. The creator of overpriced and ugly rubber beach shoes has been on fire in the last six months, during which it has doubled. While Crocs is similar to Apple in one regard -- it's lofty expectations from the street which it needs to exceed to justify its current price -- it's also very different. Unlike Apple, whose products will do well in any season, especially during Christmas, Crocs remains a one-hit-wonder for the summer months. Although Crocs bulls such as Mr. Yared will argue that Crocs is "the next Nike" and that the company's new winter shoes will carry the company through Q407 and Q108, I think this is probably wishful thinking.
Similar to every other fad product, proponents argue that this is not a fad and that this product is different. But as Sir John Templeton once said, "This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history. One needs to look no further than Heelys Inc. (NASDAQ: HLYS) to see a stock that once wore the 'this time is different' fad hat.
Unfortunately for Crocs shareholders, when this company breaks it will sink ever-so-quickly. When Crocs buyers realize that their hideous, overpriced beach shoe is no longer the popular thing they will all neglect their Crocs just like they've recently done to their sneakers with wheels which were mass produced by Heelys. This problem will be compounded by the fact that Crocs has become increasingly reliant on "Jibbitz" -- plug-like themed inserts for Crocs shoes (no, I'm not joking) -- for growth. No one will want new Micky Mouse Crocs plugs when their deformed rubber shoes are collecting dust just as quickly as their fanny packs.
Story stocks and growth stocks are fun to invest in and even more fun to write about. It's nice to know that you are cashing in on the hottest trends in America. But oftentimes there's the unspoken side story to it all -- you're overpaying for this potential and when these companies cough up you stand to suffer immensely.
While he does show discipline to buying below his price targets, I think that some of his ideas don't make sense for long-term investors and he neglects to explain the risks involved in the potential investments. In a recent post, Yared spoke about two of his favorite ideas: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX).
Apple is indisputably a great company with incredible product momentum. In a recent post, I discussed why I believed Apple is quite exposed to a correction but I had no disputes with the strength of the underlying company. On the other hand, I think that Apple was, and remains, 'priced to perfection.' This simply implies that any earnings report or guidance figure which Wall Street interprets negatively will kill the stock. Analysts will be forced to cut earnings per share estimates, thus cutting price targets. To compound the problem, the multiple will be forced to contract due to 'less operating visibility' and 'signs of slowing momentum.' While this certainly isn't a definite or easily predicted event, the risk remains very viable.
Crocs is a whole different story. The creator of overpriced and ugly rubber beach shoes has been on fire in the last six months, during which it has doubled. While Crocs is similar to Apple in one regard -- it's lofty expectations from the street which it needs to exceed to justify its current price -- it's also very different. Unlike Apple, whose products will do well in any season, especially during Christmas, Crocs remains a one-hit-wonder for the summer months. Although Crocs bulls such as Mr. Yared will argue that Crocs is "the next Nike" and that the company's new winter shoes will carry the company through Q407 and Q108, I think this is probably wishful thinking.
Similar to every other fad product, proponents argue that this is not a fad and that this product is different. But as Sir John Templeton once said, "This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history. One needs to look no further than Heelys Inc. (NASDAQ: HLYS) to see a stock that once wore the 'this time is different' fad hat.
Unfortunately for Crocs shareholders, when this company breaks it will sink ever-so-quickly. When Crocs buyers realize that their hideous, overpriced beach shoe is no longer the popular thing they will all neglect their Crocs just like they've recently done to their sneakers with wheels which were mass produced by Heelys. This problem will be compounded by the fact that Crocs has become increasingly reliant on "Jibbitz" -- plug-like themed inserts for Crocs shoes (no, I'm not joking) -- for growth. No one will want new Micky Mouse Crocs plugs when their deformed rubber shoes are collecting dust just as quickly as their fanny packs.
Story stocks and growth stocks are fun to invest in and even more fun to write about. It's nice to know that you are cashing in on the hottest trends in America. But oftentimes there's the unspoken side story to it all -- you're overpaying for this potential and when these companies cough up you stand to suffer immensely.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-14-2007 @ 9:48AM
Andy said...
It is readily evident that Mr. Kelly, like os many others who like to trash this stock, has not so much as even seen the new styles in the works. Everyone who knocks this stock rattles on about the "ugly beach" shoe. That was just the original shoe - there have been some 30 styles added since then. We carry the shoes in 2 of our stores, and they remain in HIGH demand. OUr sales numbers increase every month, with no sign of leting up. This held true last year as well, through Q406 and Q107. Wake up Mr. Kelly, the one hit wonder is not a one hitter any more!
8-14-2007 @ 8:23AM
ann said...
Crox Guidance
For the third quarter of 2007, Crocs currently anticipates total revenues to range from $240 million to $250 million and projects its net income per diluted share to range from $0.58 to $0.62
Crocs also RAISED its fiscal 2007 guidance. Crocs now expects total revenues to range from $810 million to $820 million and net income per diluted share to range from $1.89 to $1.93.
...
Third quarter started July 1. That would be summer. I've been watching this for quite a while, I think they'll beat their raised guidence.
They are still EXPANDING coast to coast and have started overseas.
Crox has value AND potential.
Ann
8-14-2007 @ 10:28AM
Susan said...
I was a naysayer too, until my niece gave me a pair and I looked around and saw countless adults (including a surgeon!) wearing them to work in the hospital and retail, not to mention boating and gardening. My neighbor just hiked around Switzerland for two weeks in her Crocs and never had tired feet! These shoes are more than a fad for kids, they're comfortable, functional shoes for all ages and even diabetics are reporting relief from painful neuropathy. I'm all in for the potential of this product - Let's hope the company manages it well!
8-14-2007 @ 10:27AM
Sandra said...
I bought my first pair of Crocs this weekend. Not because I just discovered them but because I had such a difficult time finding any of the sandals. Did you know they have three styles of sandals? Maybe more. The company doesn't need to get new designs, they need to promote the ones they already have.
After checking the stores in my town on the company website I began calling to ask if they had the Nile or Scuts. They not only didn't carry them they didn't know what they were. I did find another style sandal at Macy's and Dillards but am still searching for the others styles. I didn't want to order my first pair without having worn them but now that I have I guess ordering from the Internet will be my best option. Especially since the company gives free shipping with larger orders.
The hard part will be deciding which colors to order.
Then there are the therapeutic ones for foot problems and for diabetics. Who knew?
One trick pony? I don't think so. Perhaps Mr Kelly should do some research before he trashes a company.
8-14-2007 @ 10:48AM
Jeff said...
Perhaps Mr. Kelly should take a look at the IP addresses of these commenters and find they all trace back to crocs.com.
8-14-2007 @ 11:34AM
Jason said...
Hey Jeff, here's something that isn't "from crocs.com". All the comments are spot on and Mr. Kelly obviously has not done proper homework and DD. Let him and whoever else continue to call the company a "fad" and say they make "one ugly shoe". He is out of touch with the growing popularity of Crocs and hasn't researched the growing variety of styles. But it is his lack of knowledge and naysaying that will continue to push this stock higher over time.
8-14-2007 @ 2:31PM
August said...
While I certainly appreciate your intention to guide us through the minefield of potential vs. current value, I feel you have chosen the wrong stocks to illustrate your point.
Apple currently OWNS the technological landscape and popular media attention. This goes directly to CURRENT value. The fact they can back this up with a seemingly endless stream of stylish, advanced and eagerly sought after products goes to POTENTIAL value. Since both aspects are credible for current valuation and potential, I see no confusion or conflict here.
Likewise with Crocs... they broadly satisfy now and seem to have charted the road ahead intelligently, so I find no confusion or conflict here, either.
Another point to consider is that both companies have amassed enough fortune to heavily finance the research and development to fuel continued success. They are financially capable of fulfilling the market's prophecies, you might say. This goes to value, whether measured as a current OR potential worth.
As for Georges Yared's stock picks, I have made terrific gains through alignment with many of his seemingly well-studied investment suggestions. I don't feel he confuses current worth with potential value, in any regard.
Thanks for listening,
August
8-14-2007 @ 3:52PM
Bill said...
Mr. Kelly has a right to his opinion even though he has blinders on. Mr. Kelly brings up cold weather but its not cold and snowy all over the U.S. or the world. In fact its very hot in many states and countries. Also There is the fact that a # of people wear them inside at work and at home. There is that possibility that some people may carry them to work and then put them on. Mr. Kelly might try thinking of all the scenerio's before blurting out his opinion. And Jeff this response is not from Croc's either so yu might want to do your homework.
8-14-2007 @ 8:26PM
Andy said...
Jeff, Jeff - If Mr. Kelly wants to go to the trouble of tracking IP adresses, he will find mine has nothing to do with CROCS. Everything is NOT a conspiracy my boy. I definitely DO NOT work for CROCS, but I DO definitely sell their shoes in 2 of my retail stores. AND I wear the shoes. In fact, I wore them long before I sold them. We just started getting in some of the Fall styles, and people are flocking to get them. The hardest thing as a retailer is to decide which styles to carry. As a small business, we don't have the capital to order the minimums in all the styles, but all the ones we do order, we sell like crazy.
There are now more retail outlets overseas than there are in the U.S. This so-called "one-hit-wonder" is in it for the long haul I believe. In a year or so, I believe Mr. Kelly will be deciding if he likes to eat his crow salted or unsalted.
9-26-2007 @ 6:20PM
Jay said...
I wear crocs because I have arthritis. For a long time I couldn't wear anything else. Most people eventually need to wear "ugly" shoes. There are rumours the population as a whole is aging.
I wear them all winter long in Minnesota. I think people have heard how cold it gets here. then crocs have never stiffened up, or been too cold. After three years of constant use my oldest crocs show NO wear. Crocs are a good price.
I have four pairs and am going to get another pair this fall.
8-16-2007 @ 10:10AM
jay said...
I started buyign Crox this spring, not due to their financials but due to popularity in the medical industry. The anit-microbial that is super comfortable to wear appeals to medical staff and has LONG term staying power. Also, my kids love them I too don't care how they look. They are so many good features that style becomes much less of a factor (although they have done wonders with the new styles too).
I ahve also found that those who have Crox are looking to buy 2-4 more pairs because they are so comfortable and practical. That is not fad material. I am buying long with Crox.
Jay