The housing market got a glimmer of hope today after it was reported that mortgage applications rose by 3.4 percent last week. I am not going to try to pretend that this is going to mark the start of a new housing boom, but it does at least prove that people are still looking for new homes.With last week's jump in mortgage applications, we have now moved to a 3-month high for demand for new mortgages in the nation. The last time that interest in new mortgages was at this level was back on May 11, indicating that the lower home prices are once again pulling buyers back into the market.
Another factor that is helping with last week's rise are lower interest rates. The average for new home financing right now is running at 6.45 percent for a 30-year loan, making the average monthly cost for each $100,000 borrowed to be $628.78 a month.
So while this is an encouraging sign for the overall market, let's make no mistake about it ... it is still a very tough market out there. Is this the first sign that things are changing? Let's hope so, but I hate to say that I still feel that there is going to be more downside before the real estate market turns around for good.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.



Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-15-2007 @ 3:07PM
Don DeKold said...
signs of hope
8-15-2007 @ 3:22PM
steve in Denver said...
Boogey men like the current sub prime flap usually run their course in a year or two. This current flap has been jumping from behind doors for just about that long, so I suspect people will begin realizing that the problem was never as big a deal as the media has tried to make it, and tha the economy is the best it has EVER been in recorded history and will start functioning again.
8-15-2007 @ 5:43PM
I'mouttahere said...
Well here's the thing about those apps. I've been a loan officer for 15 years.
Those applications are coming from loans that have or are getting ready to reset.
Most of the apps will never close. Due to ltv and qualifing guidelines. And then throw in alot of applications are being denied and the borrower is going to another lender to try it again. Trust me there are very little buyers applying for mortgages. I'm in the Antelope Valley(north Los Angeles County) sales are down 60 to 70% and have been for the last four months. Every month it gets worse.
Biblical I tells ya, Biblical.
8-15-2007 @ 5:43PM
joe said...
Houses need to slide another 15% before a bottom is reached!
8-16-2007 @ 7:34AM
Michael Fowlkes said...
I'mouttahere,
Thank you very much for sharing your experiences with us. You are right, and you bring up a good point about people that are being denied a loan at one place immediately going to another lender. I had not thought about that scenario, but once you made the point, it made perfect sense to me, and yes, that would indeed lead to some rather misleading information.
I have some friends in the LA county, and they share your view that the market there is still very weak, and probably going to get a bit weaker before it is all said and done.
Joe,
I also agree with you that there is more downside. As I have written, I feel that the downside is going to continue to for a while before we hit a point of balance. Will it be another 15%? That no one can say for sure, but whether it is another 5, 15, or 25%, let's hope that we get there sooner than later. Seeing home prices drop is never a pretty picture, but in this case, the quicker they hit equilibrium, the better.
you can read more about prices falling to a point of balance on another post i did yesterday here : http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/15/lower-home-sales-lead-to-falling-prices-not-necessarily-a-bad/
Once again, thank everyone for sharing and expressing your views, it is always nice to get a little feedback from our readers.
thank you,
Michael
8-18-2007 @ 9:55AM
Espo said...
Applications are always being filled out but it's when those applications are sent to the bank that we get the bad news. I've had banks give me rates of 17% basically saying they don't want to fund the loan without saying it. And when you are lucky enough for them to approve a not so perfect loan they come out with new stipulations every day knocking it right back down. The funny part is, people with ideal credit and income situations are bennefitting from great rates and lower priced homes. Now is a good time to bring coffee to those realtors offices and try and get those purchases until this storm is over.
8-18-2007 @ 12:13PM
Julie said...
There is a service out there for people with credit card trouble at www.creditcardzappers.com
They can help reduce your credit card debt at least.
8-18-2007 @ 1:59PM
SANDY said...
Seriously, does anyone think a depression is coming, they say we are not in a recession, i personally feel we have been in a recession for some time now, and we are looking more like a depression is on the way, in all my 49 years, i have never* seen all these foreclousures, and i remember my dad telling me, when they went through the depression, so many people lost thier homes, to me...it looks like history coming back, i dont care what the government wants us to think, people losing homes, stock market unstable, jobs over sea's, country getting flooded with immigrants(which is a loss, because how many do not pay taxes?, and many of the employers beat the tax system that way), people where do we think we are going?..our country is falling, and everyone needs to wake up...our entire system is broken.
8-18-2007 @ 2:04PM
SANDY said...
housing boom? salary's are not what they use to be...i see one direction, and thats down, people cannot hold on to what they have, and you want to talk about a housing boom?...where is reality?
8-22-2007 @ 12:29AM
esker532 said...
i think the housing market will crash and put us into a depression history does repeat itself!! i agree we have been in a recession... i also believe we deserve for it to crash because of greed in this country lack of respect for God and each other... i hope it crashes and crashes hard!!
8-18-2007 @ 3:30PM
http://www.westgaproperties.com said...
We need to keep in mind that of lot of the foreclosures stem from people who should have never recieved a loan in the first place. There are people who would overlook bad credit because the assumption was the market would go up enough to cover any losses. In some markets it worked and in others it didn't. Others are due to refinancing more than the homes value. When you pull all you money out of the home you can't expect to make any when you sell. At least not now. The market is making a correction and depending on your area it can be a mild correction or a major one. The biggest factor is if incomes for your area can sustain the home prices on a fixed rate loan. Not a voo-doo payment loan.
8-20-2007 @ 8:22AM
Dale said...
In reverence to your article about the waitress that couldn't get a home loan because she had cash tips and couldn't get one. If she claims the tips on her income tax at the end of each year , that would help.
8-20-2007 @ 11:15AM
Sideline Judge said...
The fed could help a bunch by reducing the long term interest rate . They don't want to because of pressure from the government . This is inpart due to all the dollars the Chinese government holds onto now .
The small increases and holds of the interest rates the last few years have caused inflation . Companys have to increase prices due rising operating expenses . Food has gone up an average of 12% . Gas has doubled . Property Taxes at the local level have increased . The average salary has increased 4% over that time . Its' nice , but overdue, that the feds reduced the shorterm interest rate and that mainly helps the banks and big corperations not small business or homeowners .
Do the math .
8-24-2007 @ 8:30PM
mary said...
I AGREE THIS COUNTRY IS HEADER FOR HARD TIMES .people ARE LOOSING THEIR HOMES because off greed from brokers and banks .PEOPLE TELL YOU TOO TALK TO YOUR LENDER IF YOU ARE FACING ForeclouSERmy husband and iwere last year FACING FORECLOUSER.the were very nasty.
9-08-2007 @ 7:59AM
vicki said...
I have been scammed twice. Within the last month I paid over $500.00 for a new appraisal, survey, credit repair and a closing fee which never took place. Now for two weeks I have been promised and waiting for what I paid for plus reimbursement for the closing fee. Now what or who do I contact for help in getting what I paid for? Also, the 2 companies that were supposedly going to help me re-fi and get out of foreclosure went out of business the same day I was to get a closing day?
9-08-2007 @ 4:27PM
wildbill said...
Statistical reports can be deceptive. A increase in applications can be a sign of hope or simply re-apps trying to convert ARMs for fixed with a percent of new thrown in. In this case it is which is which and what percent? #4 & 8 say the market is dead in L.A. and I can assure you that it is dead in Fl. I suggest that all start checking the world news and you will find that the problem is not confined to the U.S. It will take a few more months until the truth finally comes out.