The Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) closed below 13,000 today -- the first time since it crossed that mark was on the way up -- on April 24th. Since hitting a record 14,000 on July 19 -- less than a month ago -- the Dow has tumbled 1,139 points, or 8.1%.
I am not sure of many things in life but one thing I can guarantee is that the media will quote "experts" on "what this means for investors." I have nothing to offer here since I have no idea what makes stocks move up and down on any particular day. As best I can tell, the people who control vast swaths of money -- like the $1.7 billion (2006 earnings) man James Simons -- are the ones who know the answer to that question. And the media never gets them to explain.
Nevertheless I have an idea of what is driving the market down -- a credit crunch. There is no money for big leveraged buyouts and the hedge funds are selling their stocks to raise enough cash to pay back the banks to whom they owe as many as $6 for every dollar of assets in their portfolios. I think the market will continue to fall until most of the banks are comfortable that they won't get stiffed on their loans.
Unfortunately I don't know how much stock selling will be required to raise enough cash to satisfy the banks. Nor can I estimate how much the credit crunch will slow consumer spending or crimp corporate earnings. So it would not surprise me if the Dow does not stabilize until it has fallen below 10,000 -- a level it last reached on October 29, 2004.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-15-2007 @ 8:38PM
Dee said...
I spent 43 years in Banking. The last 20 of which were spent as a COMMERCIAL LOAN RECOVERY OFFICER (VICE pRESIDENT) FOR ONE OF THE LARGEST BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES.
SUB PRIME MORTGAGE LOANS are collateralized, some of which eventually will be sold to an homogenized mix of scavengers, bottom fishers, and even to people who need a home and will be able to afford it, or even pick it up at foreclosure and will qualify for a mortgage. Ergo, guartnteeed there will be substantial recoveries on these hard assets. ALL IS NOT LOST. I know this for a fact, 'cause I've been there and I've done that for the Banks.
This manic activiity in the market was not caused by the sub prime morgages . Most of the stocks which are being "manipulated" by the traders and media hype fueling the fires, successfully and very profitably for the traders ... are dropping like lead balloons, they had nothing to do with sub prime lending. Our economy will not tank and it can absorb the hit caused by the egregious lending policies of the banks and their ilk. Any lending institution that shelled out money to sub-prime borrowers deserves to lose its shirt. Those banks /lenders that do not remember the past, deserve to repeat it.
When the likes of really good stocks are selling at fire sale prices, and panic is created , bordering on hysteria , world wide, it is absolutely insane. But, it gives us , individual investors, a good opportunity to BUY, Buy, Buy.
Bank Examiners , and therefore the government agencies regulating banks, must take 80% of the blame for what has happened in Banking today. NO BANK SHOULD EVER BE PERMITTED TO MAKE LOANS OF ANY KIND ,FOR WHATEVER REASON TO AN UNQUALIFIED BORROWER. If a good loan does go bad, which happens, it will not cause this orgy of panic . ONE LOAN AT A TIME SHOULD BE THE MANTRA OF ANY LENDER. NO RUBBER STAMPING BAD CREDITS.
8-15-2007 @ 9:01PM
justpicky02 said...
personally i'll stick with 30 yr fixed loans
I can either pay biweekly to pay this loan
off early by 7+ yrs and make extra payment
per year to Principle . Other words , pay the
house off ASAP , to save and not have to
pay the interest. >>
8-16-2007 @ 4:41AM
Bill Olmsted said...
"When there is blood in the streets, buy property."
8-16-2007 @ 6:49AM
craig said...
THIS IS WHY WE ARE IN THE MESS WE ARE IN WITH THINKING LIKE YOU HAVE.........
8-16-2007 @ 7:39AM
Gone with the Wind said...
The TV hype influence so many people, not only with how they invest, but how their opinons are formed about the war in Irac, politics and even the way we live our own lives. I guess this is brain washing at it's ultimate.
In regards to what is now happening in the stock market, I agree that it is being swayed by the so called self proclaimed TV business experts who uses phrases like "hedgeing, subprime etc." without knowing themselves what thes phrases mean or much less are able to explain the meaning.
8-16-2007 @ 1:33PM
JD said...
Let's not forget about the consumers responsibility. Yes, the banks are dead wrong for loaning to unqualified buyers or helping them to get into deals with risky loans. Having said that the consumer of those loans should have a better idea and handle on their financials. This county is loaded with people posturing. Don't buy it if you can't afford it!!!
8-16-2007 @ 2:49PM
Tom Joseph said...
I am a small business owner and pay attention to the markets. I lived in Calif. in the late 80's and then watched the S&L bull go down and you had to be a complete idiot to not see this coming. See no evil applied here and a group of blood suckers like the Milkin crowd screwed a few million more.
8-16-2007 @ 3:16PM
Flabongid said...
I hope all you speculators in the real estate and stock markets are enjoying eating the apple.
You don't see the EU banks giving mortgages away.
And derivitives are seldom used.
Here the investing insanity is rampant.
8-18-2007 @ 7:39PM
deejay said...
For years ,who of us has not read it, heard it, or seen countless ads hyping , NO "DOC" LOANS. ? That mantra pervaded throughout the land. Banking Regulators should have been like a hoard of Samuri ,swarming down on EVERYBODY WHO WAS WILLING TO LEND MORGAGE MONEY with NO DOCS.Or how about, "we'lll let you borrow 110% of your equity" ......
When those siren calls from Lenders were heard throughout the land, the Banking authorities should have stepped in and put a complete stop to this salacious lending activity IMMEDIATELY, or they would lose their right to any further FDIC insurance for their depositors. NO DOC loans would have come to a screeching halt if a bank were threatened with that warning.
As a consequence of no action taken by the Banking Regulators, banks have a serious liquidity problem from which we the people have to bail them out. Deja Vu, anyone?