"Fed Chair" James Cramer enjoyed taking credit for yesterday's announcement that the Fed had eased its Discount Rate. But today's Barron's takes him to task for trying to keep Mad Money viewers from measuring the extent to which his stock picks underperform the market indices.
Cramer has accomplished many things. He managed a hedge fund, started TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) which survived the dot-com bust, he writes columns for New York magazine, and he provides a unique blend of entertainment and stock touting on CNBC.
But Barron's analysis of his stock picks over the last two years suggests that you would have been better off buying a low-cost stock index fund. Barron's cites an analysis by YourMoneyWatch.com that analyzed his stock picks between 7/28/05 and 8/17/07 -- finding that Cramer's picks lagged the general market averages. Specifically, his picks were up 12%, the Dow Jones Industrials Average rose 22%, the S&P 500 gained 16% and the NASDAQ was up 14%.
As Barron's points out, Cramer makes excuses for his underperformance -- hurling abuse at its reporter -- and refusing to make available his "exact data, which says [his] picks are much better than the S&P."
My advice: watch Cramer if you like his entertainment style and put the money you would have invested with Cramer in a low-cost stock index fund.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in TheStreet.com.
See also:
Douglas McIntyre Leave Cramer Alone
Zac Bissonnette: Jim Cramer: Too much Lightning Round, not enough sound advice











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-18-2007 @ 5:53PM
Michael Schneider said...
Some time ago, Chicago Tribune published an article on Jim Cramer's show which had a similiar skepticism of the show's record- but without the recent detail that Barron's has been able to supply.
I don't think it is a big surprise that Jim Cramer's recommendations are lagging the market. What is interesting is that while Barron's argues that his picks don't beat the market it notes that the selections are smart and informed. The question though is if his picks are smart and informed then why is he missing the boat in the performance category. my view is that like a hitter in a batting slump, he is doing some things that cause this and if an astute oberver can identify such problems or avoid such trouble himself or herself they can reap the benefit of good info without the mistakes in action.
Barron's notes that Jim Cramer has made thousands of buy recommendations. It is worth noting that no one is going to buy all of those stocks- not even Bill Gates has that kind of money. It is also worth noting that many of Jim Cramer's picks score pretty well as can be seen by his ample presence on our Who got What Right Good Call list at http://www.Barrelomoney.com.
I think you can make money with the show if you have standards of selection that separate the good from the bad in Jim Cramer's selections. His admontion to "Buy high and sell higher" is great in a strong-very strong market but not so good (and a possible death trap) in a market vulenerable to a pullback due to seasonality or value considerations. And some of the problems with the performance record is just in having to have a show with stock recommendations 365 days of the year. There are other glitches in the Cramer machine but you can get the idea. There is a lot of information freely and easily available on Jim Cramer's show. Turning it into ways of making money is something the individual investor must play a bigger part in. as one of my professor's in graduate school at University of Iowa used to admonish you must "Use the media or it will use you."
Dr. Micvhael Schneider runs several Web sites including http://www.Barrelomoney.com and the international http://www.Barreloworld.com.
8-19-2007 @ 12:55AM
AP said...
I'm a relative newcomer to investing in stocks and I paid attention to Jim Cramer's recommendations when I started, all to my detriment. I bought Ciena and Chico's per his recommendations (and I think Motorola, but can't remember anymore). I realized afterwards that the stocks were at their peak when he recommended them. They went south of my purchase prices very shortly after I bought them and lost money on them. Since I still keep tabs of the market, it's hard not to run into Cramer's columns but I don't take his advice anymore. I think that he recommends stocks AFTER they've risen as a "see, I know what I'm doing" recommendation. I think he's afraid of making a risky recommendation so he makes safe bets AFTER others have already picked them and gotten out, right before they peak.
Of course, I'm just a newbie at this so what do I know? I lost money on his recommendations, that's all I know.
8-22-2007 @ 2:55PM
mgrund said...
Ok look I use Cramer as one thats one source of information.
I do not buy when he recomends a stock. If I like the thesis he puts forth I put it on watch. Even I knew that there is a cramer bounce, long before he explictily did a show on this. I used to watch him move the stock in the afterhours market.
Now I sometimes buy his picks, but only at my price,and when I am ready. I have avoided some of his misses,and I have avoided some of his wins.
I also use other sources. Guess what I am aslo training the S&P 500, but only in the up market, on down days I do ok, well the last few week have been an expection,but I ride it out.
Cramers advice is free. It is valuable but only as a guide. Get a clue. BTW most of my holdings are in the S&P 500. I am looking to sweeten it a bit, but I am not going nuts. My best holding came from me allone not cramer and my second and third best as well. Now I have some stinkers one from my brother ( I forgive him) and one from me and one from yes cramer. But they were all my picks once I place the buy.
I am still up overall, and considering the tape I take that as a draw.
OH and you Cramer does a good job of expaining the irational aspect of the market. I have learned a good deal from him about how to stay cool, like last week when all the hedge funds had to unwind the short positons,and also rsie cash from good companies.
I was able to stay cool becaue I say the play thanks to Cramer, and also the rest of the gang a CNBC,and the WSJ etc.