A piece in today's New York Times looks at the ways that American Greetings (NYSE: AM) and Hallmark are trying to compete with online alternatives for consumer greeting dollars. American Greetings is betting that people will respond more to everyday humor, and has signed Ellen DeGeneres to create a line of Ellen cards to appeal to the women who purchase 80% of greeting cards. Hallmark has the Shoebox series, and is increasingly focusing on current events humor.

According to the piece, "While the paper card market is declining, it is still five times as large as the e-card market, according to the Greeting Card Association, a trade group... newer forms of communication - not just e-mail, but also social networks and chat boards - do seem to threaten its relevance."

Are greeting card companies a good investment? My hunch is no. The only major publicly traded option is American Greetings, whose net income has declined in each of the past 5 years, and sales are also trending down. Nearly all college-age kids have Facebook or Myspace pages and, while an online wedding card might be frowned upon by older folks, it seems likely that the next generation will feel differently. I would argue that it's entirely possible that, in 25 years, the greeting card industry will be pretty much gone. Without any catalyst for short-term growth, the stock looks expensive.

The company lists this as a risk factor in its most recent 10-K: The growth of our greeting card business is critical to future profitability and cash flow. But that seems hardly assured, and I would argue downright unlikely.