Talk about unloved, Headwaters Incorporated (NYSE: HW) is so far down you would think they were a homebuilding hedgefund that wrote their own sub-prime loans and kept them. In the spring of last year this once high flyer was trading at $40, but yesterday it closed at $15.67. That's a wild ride for anyone that held on until now. So here's the good news: now it's a value proposition. Now it's worth looking at. HW was called to my attention many times in recent history but I always felt it was a good company that was too expensive. Perhaps now it is a good company that is being unduly punished.
Before I get into the promising part of the story I want to share my greatest apprehension. Last week the company announced that Chief Financial Officer Scott Sorensen was resigning and it would bring his predecessor Steven Stewart back from retirement to be the new CFO. It is never a good sign when there is a shake up in the CFO's office. We do not know if Sorensen was pushed out to make room for Stewarts return and "stewart-ship" in turning the ship around or that Sorensen is abandoning a sinking ship and Stewart was brought back as the only way to keep the stock afloat. As an Enron loser I will always be watchful of management shuffling.
Nevertheless Headwaters is in three compelling businesses; construction materials, coal combustion products (CCPs), and alternative energy. The most interesting is Headwaters Energy Services develops technology for the synthetic fuels, alternative energy, and clean coal industries. In addition, Headwaters Technology Innovations Group develops technology to improve natural resource usage. It seems like "clean coal" should be huge and allow for a growing list of clients here and abroad.
AOL Money & Finance provides the following intriguing metrics. The P/E is 5.94 and although there have been earnings projections indicating a 50% cut over the next 12 months, that would still give you a P/E under 12 when its average P/E over five years has been closer to 18. If you want some figures that are screaming out at you, consider that the P/S is 0.63 and the P/B is under 1 as well, at 0.73. (These figures include a heavy dose of good will and intangibles so it is not a pure number from a value perspective.) HW does not pay a dividend and it is rare that I would spend much energy reviewing a company that does not, but this one is almost a start up in some respects given it's evolving technologies and heavy R&D spending. Standard & Poors made positive comments about Headwaters position in non-residential construction, an area that they see as expanding with increased commercial development and government spending on infrastructure like highways, waterways, bridges, and airports, to name a few.
A subsidiary of Headwaters, Covol Engineered Fuels is building its third new coal cleaning facility and this should improve the bottom line once complete and demonstrate strength in a very important area given our dependance on foreign oil and our huge reserves in coal. If coal has any meaning to Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) in his acquisition of railroad stocks than perhaps HW should have greater meaning as well. In addition, it would seem to me that forming foreign partnerships in China would expand HW's opportunities tremendously given what I read about pollution in China from coal burning power plants.
Headwaters is not a core holding. That would be a company like Berkshire, see Serious Money: Safe havens -- T-Bills or Warren Buffett? posted yesterday. However, it is worth considering as a bet for inclusion in a diversified portfolio. Standard & Poors current lists HW's fair value at $20.20, halfway back to where it was. If it takes two years to achieve what they say is today's value than there is a 30% gain. If it attains it's past glory than the sky is the limit. Check it out for yourself.
Disclosure: I own shares in BRK.B. Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
To verify my track record, including bad calls, read Chasing Value and Serious Money.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-22-2007 @ 7:16PM
domenico panuccio said...
thank you
8-22-2007 @ 8:35PM
Craig said...
If you haven't already...you should research Sec. 45. The majority of their earnings in recent years were for selling regents for coal power plants seeking to lower their tax rate through Sec. 45. Sec. 45 is being phased out due to high oil prices and might be canceled all together (last time I checked). That really changes their trailing P/E and P/S and no one has a good idea of how much.
I would suggest taking a serious look at Sec. 45 before investing and alerting your readers about it. Sec. 45 would be my greatest concern, not the CFO, although the change in CFO might be related.
FYI-I was a HW investor two years ago.
8-23-2007 @ 12:29AM
Dan said...
Curious... did you find this from a scan
or from a friend ?
8-23-2007 @ 12:41PM
Sheldon L said...
Dan,
Thanks for following my frequent investment ramblings and taking the time to comment. I first read about HW in Barron's last year and it came up on value stock screens I run periodically. Recently it was in the top 25 of the entire market so I decided to look at it again and it finally was worthy of discussion.
BTW: I hope you made money on ACH, it has been on fire the past six months and more so yesterday up over 10%.
Craig,
I am aware of the Sec. 45 tax benefits that are phasing out and so is HW. They have been diversifying for years and you will note in my post that I assume a 50% reduction in '08 earnings just to be safe, and still like HW.
8-24-2007 @ 3:23AM
Dan said...
Yes so far and thanks for the ACH post.
CHL is also a good one. It is no where close to full penetration of the mkt.
About HW, it sounds complicated and hard to understand.