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General Motors (GM) (finally) planning for the future

General Motors Corp (NYSE: GM) eliminated overtime at six of its North American SUV and pickup assembly plants for 2007, citing fuel prices and the competitive market. Spokesman Tom Wickham said the automaker cut production to manage its inventory levels, according to the Detroit Free Press.

The move by General Motors hints that the auto industry is moving towards a "longer and more painful downturn in the U.S. than many had expected," according to the Wall Street Journal.

What's baffling is that GM, as well as the WSJ, didn't see this coming any earlier. SUV and truck sales for General Motors were down 9% over the first seven months of the year. Auto sales were surprisingly weak in June and even worse in July for the whole industry. Add the weak housing environment, the current credit market debacle, the ever rising price of oil and the global demand for hybrid technology to the mix and one has to question who didn't see this coming.
  • Goldman Sachs called GM's 2007 outlook "uninspiring" on March 15, as deteriorating pricing and volumes will remain a persistent headwind for the automaker.
  • Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE: TM) claimed the title "world's biggest carmaker" back in April from General Motors.
  • Prudential said on May 17 that GM and Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) could face increased competition with Chrysler being more likely to make the turnaround more quickly.
  • Last month, the Detroit News reported that General Motors will double the incentives on its new full size pickups and even pay six months of lease payments for others, just to get them off the lot.
  • Scott Frew, manager of hedge fund Rockingham Capital Partners, told Barron's (subscription required) earlier this month that he predicts GM will to go into bankruptcy.

One GM executive that actually did see this coming: Bob Lutz. At the Geneva auto show in March, the Detroit News reported Lutz commenting during an interview that market conditions are conspiring to eliminate one of the 'Big Three' down the road.

The Wall Street Journal reported that as recently as May, General Motors predicted second half vehicle sales would improve. At the start of August, GM finally lowered its forecast for industry-wide vehicle sales, acknowledging there would not be an improvement. Yesterday, GM cut production. If the executives of GM don't open their eyes, and quickly, Bob Lutz's words might come true -- for General Motors.
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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 09:14 PM

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