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Is Bank of America's (BAC) purchase of Countrywide Financial (CFC) a good bet?

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Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) is paying a high price for the superficial vote of confidence from Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). That's because Countrywide is paying a 7.25% interest rate to Bank of America for its $2 billion preferred investment and providing the bank an option to purchase Countrywide shares at $18 -- 41% below the price they're likely to open at this morning.

As the New York Times reports, there is risk in this deal for Bank of America and Countrywide. One such risk is that Countrywide has agreed to buy back loans in secondary market pools if the terms of the loans are changed to help keep borrowers from defaulting. It's not clear how much cash will be required to fulfill those promises, but it would cost $1.2 billion for Countrywide to repurchase 1% of the loans in the pools at issue. Repurchasing 5% would cost $6.1 billion.

With such big unknown obligations, Bank of America's investment will enable it to get a clearer picture of whether it wants to exercise its option to purchase Countrywide at $18. In the meantime, the $143 million annual interest payments will take scarce cash out of Countrywide's coffers that could have been used for more productive purposes.

I'd say this deal shows how much Countrywide is willing to pay to create the perception that it won't be heading for bankruptcy. Yet, the terms of the deal ensure that Bank of America can't lose if Countrywide does go out of business. If Countrywide stays out of bankruptcy, Bank of America will probably be able to buy in above $18 and make a big profit while receiving that high income stream. If, on the other hand, Countrywide files for bankruptcy, Countrywide will still get those interest payments and a share of Countrywide in its bankruptcy restructuring.

This deal is a good bet for Bank of America and a Hail Mary pass for Countrywide.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

More Countrywide Financial news

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Peter Cohan: Is Countrywide (CFC) too big to fail?
Zac Bissonnette: Let Mozilo provide Countrywide (CFC) with cash
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Peter Cohan: Could Countrywide Financial (CFC) be put down?

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Last updated: November 22, 2009: 08:06 AM

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