Investors expected too much too fast from the Fed


Investors who pushed down the Dow Jones Industrial average by almost 300 points today had unrealistic hopes that a signal for a rate cut would be hidden from the Federal Reserve's August 7 meeting that were released later today.

As expected, the minutes didn't hint that a rate cut was coming. In fact, the Fed seems to think things are going just swell with a few exceptions like those subprime mortgages.

"In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants indicated that they still saw moderate economic expansion in coming quarters as the most likely outcome but that the downside risks to growth had increased," the minutes said. "Participants reported that economic expansion had continued at a moderate pace in many regions of the country despite further weakness in the housing sector."

Bloomberg News notes that "policy makers underestimated the contagion from subprime credit markets to less risky borrowers." That may be the case but does that mean that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is set to address a Fed conference September 31, feels the need to do something. I'm not sure.

Remember that Ben Bernanke just lowered the discount rate -- the fee that banks pay to borrow -- 11 days ago. Though that sent the markets shooting to the moon, the impact as I expected was short-lived. Investors eventually said "that was nice but what have you done for me lately."

Bernanke doesn't seem like a major move sort of guy. He also wants to make sure that the markets don't do anything that encourages sleazy mortgage lenders and hedge funds to repeat the actions that got the economy into its current mess.

If anything, the Fed may cut the discount rate again before reducing the interest rate. Even if it did cut the rates, the market is so jittery that the impact may be short-lived. Home prices had their steepest drop in 20 years and the market shows no sign of rebounding anytime soon. Though the economy continues to be strong, consumer confidence nosedived in August.

Ben Bernanke isn't a magician who can wave his magic wand and make the dark clouds hovering over the economy change into sunshine and rainbows. Whatever decision he makes will disappoint people and give him grief from Democrats in Congress.

But as the expression goes, that's why he gets the big bucks.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 11:15 AM

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