Investors who pushed down the Dow Jones Industrial average by almost 300 points today had unrealistic hopes that a signal for a rate cut would be hidden from the Federal Reserve's August 7 meeting that were released later today.
As expected, the minutes didn't hint that a rate cut was coming. In fact, the Fed seems to think things are going just swell with a few exceptions like those subprime mortgages.
"In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants indicated that they still saw moderate economic expansion in coming quarters as the most likely outcome but that the downside risks to growth had increased," the minutes said. "Participants reported that economic expansion had continued at a moderate pace in many regions of the country despite further weakness in the housing sector."
Bloomberg News notes that "policy makers underestimated the contagion from subprime credit markets to less risky borrowers." That may be the case but does that mean that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who is set to address a Fed conference September 31, feels the need to do something. I'm not sure.
Remember that Ben Bernanke just lowered the discount rate -- the fee that banks pay to borrow -- 11 days ago. Though that sent the markets shooting to the moon, the impact as I expected was short-lived. Investors eventually said "that was nice but what have you done for me lately."
Bernanke doesn't seem like a major move sort of guy. He also wants to make sure that the markets don't do anything that encourages sleazy mortgage lenders and hedge funds to repeat the actions that got the economy into its current mess.
If anything, the Fed may cut the discount rate again before reducing the interest rate. Even if it did cut the rates, the market is so jittery that the impact may be short-lived. Home prices had their steepest drop in 20 years and the market shows no sign of rebounding anytime soon. Though the economy continues to be strong, consumer confidence nosedived in August.
Ben Bernanke isn't a magician who can wave his magic wand and make the dark clouds hovering over the economy change into sunshine and rainbows. Whatever decision he makes will disappoint people and give him grief from Democrats in Congress.
But as the expression goes, that's why he gets the big bucks.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-28-2007 @ 2:36PM
Mr Wag said...
The lenders made some bad business decisions gambling on big returns. It should not be a surprise that people with little money and bad credit ratings have difficulty paying off debt. The Fed has no obligation to bail them out. It's time for the investment community to quit whining and realize that the "Sky is not falling" As declared by the news media, that has a hard time reporting any good news. There are many good bargains in the market, now is the time to buy.
8-28-2007 @ 2:40PM
gilly said...
The people who pushed it down got it right. $%#@ will hit the fan again and again!
8-28-2007 @ 1:41PM
ann said...
Jonathan, This "article" is so full of contradictions that I can't even follow it. What is your point?
The people that are selling in front of the news are going to be disappointed? Because they sold or because the news is worse than they thought?
"Though the economy continues to be strong, consumer confidence nosedived in August" ???
Can you have someone over there read this stuff before you post it, so I don't waste my time reading it.
Thanks, Ann
8-28-2007 @ 2:39PM
Harold said...
Excesses in the mortgage and credit markets will correct themselves. The fed should NOT tinker with the markets to make Wall Street and brokers happy.
8-28-2007 @ 2:39PM
Steve said...
I believe that anyone who still thinks that the Federal Rerserve is going to come riding to the rescue to bail out the small speculators who miscalculated recently in their purchases of real estate or stocks is going to be mightily disappointed in the days ahead. The Federal Reserve is a central bank, and its loyalties lie with the major money center banks who are its base constitutency. I'm sure that the Fed under Bernanke will take some steps to stabilize the situation as they just did to cut the discount rate for their lending to banks. The Fed under Allan Greenspan did the same at the time of the banking crisis of '97 that began with the implosion of credit in Thailand and then radiated outwards. But as for the small speculator who bought 6 condos in Miami by plunging heavily into debt dreaming of flipping them for a nice profit, those people are of no concern to central bankers whatsovever.
8-28-2007 @ 5:19PM
mattyw said...
It is the fear of the investor community that is triggering the plight of the market. When indicators for a moderate to strong economy are a reality, economic results should spawn from that. Besides, August is consistantly a down month for consumer confidence. It is not the Feds position to bail out the groups that committed ethically challenges business practices.
MDUBYA
8-28-2007 @ 7:47PM
laura said...
The Fed does not seem to acts or react until the pain is felt on Wall Street. Many industries related to housing are suffering dramatically. Not just the people who made bad investments. Real estate brokers, builders suppliers. It is much worse than anyone suspects.
8-29-2007 @ 12:01AM
Alastair said...
The "Welcome" mat has been put down for every American. Welcome to Bush's depression. He and Allen Greenspan unleashed this monster.
Dr. Bernanke has a golden opportunity to save us from its effects. If he believes for one moment that the data he receives in August and September points to a downturn where the world's banking system is imperiled, he must lower the Fed funds rate by at least 100 basis points. If not considerably more. The sooner the better.
Inflation for those who believe in the Philips Curve is no longer the monster the Fed minutes suggest. Bernanke must be careful he doesn't make the same mistake the head of the New York Fed made in 1929-30 who tightened credit at the wrong time. This event exacerbated the effects of the crash.
Thanks to Bush and Greenspan, hedge fund managers, the predatory mortgage lenders, and credit rating agencies deceived the world's money managers. Were the managers stupid? You bet, but the foul deed has been done and Bernanke needs to have the cahones to admit times have changed and an even more drastic liquifying of the US economy is in order. Otherwise, he will be consigned to the not-so tender mercies of future economic historians. Buy gold, Treasuries, and microcap medical stocks. You're only chance for surviving the Bush Depression.
8-29-2007 @ 8:20AM
Mort said...
Yeah to the Fed for staying out of tinkering with the markets. Let the market correct excesses in the mortgage and credit areas.
8-29-2007 @ 12:55PM
BT said...
As someone who is currently 100% liquid, sitting on the sidelines, it concerns me that investors choose to ignore personal data on the two-thirds majority (the overextended American consumer) that drive the U.S. economy. Alot is to blame on entertainment television like CNBC that keeps this fairytale alive. Things aren't good. The feds unexpected recent action at the discount window screams trouble but somehow the Street seems to spin it as a positive.
Honestly, with six figure liquidity, no mortgage, no debt, I'm neither bearish or bullish. The market as I see it is a fool's game right now with no SOLID winners in sight. It's going to take an epic, long term shake down - fiscal reeducation of the American consumer to straighten this mess out.
8-31-2007 @ 8:16AM
johnO said...
Does anybody realize what is going on right now?
The US and Israel are going to take out the Iranian reactors. The markets are going to plunge.
8-31-2007 @ 10:55AM
Sheldon L said...
Not so johnO,
Oil stocks would jump followed by defense stocks and then security related companies
...water ...food ...medical and media/talk shows