Where's the value in the Tyco (TYC) companies?

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC) shares have performed dismally since it completed its spin-off of Tyco Electronics Ltd. (NYSE:TEL) and Covidien Ltd. (NYSE:COV). In fact, those have been poor performers as well. It isn't easy being one of the few naysayers ahead of a major event like this, but there are frequently too many conflicted reports out there. Does anyone expect that the large investment banking firms facilitating that deal or near-term financing would actually post a 'HIGH CAUTION" alert on any of the companies? Exactly.

Before the spin-off was implemented, I noted a "phantom premium" in Tyco's stock because the investing world was just too much in love with spin-offs, mergers, and private equity at the time. Interestingly enough, this shakeout may be going a bit too far as far as the overall values of the three units now. There is more data that needs to be crunched to verify this, but next week subscribers of the Special Situation Investing Newsletter will receive a newsletter with a tie of a company to one of the remaining ex-Tyco Newco stocks.

We ran a basket analysis this morning and showed that the ex-Tyco group as a whole was down twice as much as the general markets off of the July highs. That was also before the drop in all three stocks this morning. Mergers and special situations are not dead by any means. But now the funny-money deals are going to be a thing of the past. Deals might even have to make sense other than the greater fool theory from here on out. The good news is that the stupidity in mergers and special situations has been flushed out of the market and analysis doesn't have to worry about irrational conditions clouding up the picture.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and does not own securities in the companies he covers.