Microsoft's (MSFT) first Windows Vista service pack a turning point?

When Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ: MSFT) first service pack for Windows Vista comes down the chute sometime in 2008, there are indications that massive sales of Vista will happen to those corporate customers who have been "waiting in the wings" for this to upgrade. Historically, bigger corporate citizens wait on deploying new operating systems from Microsoft until the first "service pack" is released. These service packs are generally a huge collection of software "bug" fixes that address many issues that are present when a new piece of software launches.

Even mighty Microsoft is not immune to this rule: "ship when 85% complete, since you'll never ship on time if you need to get to 100%." That's a repeat of a rule I've heard from many software companies, most of which release product when not complete, as was the case with Windows Vista. After all, hitting a shipping deadline is more important than iron-clad products. Standard rule of thumb here.

But will the revenue spigot of Windows Vista sales really see some action once SP1 (service pack 1) is released for Windows Vista next year? From many indications, it will. Support on WindowsXP and Windows 2000 won't last forever, so in effect Microsoft will goad customers into upgrading to Windows Vista (call it standard strong-arm tactics). The release of a 'comforting' initial service pack will ease the security-minded pain of many of these customers, and the non-OEM (original equipment manufacturer), retail sales will finally fall in line to where Microsoft needs them to be.

[Disclosure: I own MSFT shares as of 8-31-07]