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The Wal-Mart (WMT) Weekly: Smaller stores to come?

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Welcome to the 26th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions and just a bit of everything else when it comes down to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart. Last week we wondered whether Always Low Prices was just a myth in today's competitive climate.

This past week, I discussed Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) Stores, Inc.'s entry into the non-protected digital music file download business. With the retailer selling non-protected songs from its website for a maximum of $0.94, will this action dent into Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes market share? Who knows at this point.

Wal-Mart has been in the news quite a bit this past week in regards to a European competitor entering a market Wal-Mart is already in (just not in a big way) -- California. Tesco (LSE: TSCO) said it will be opening smaller-concept stores soon that feature the opposite of the big-box retail feeling of the standard 100,000-square-foot Wal-Mart Supercenter. Tesco's stores will average about 10,000 square feet. What will Wal-Mart do in response?

It's time to re-examine the large-format, big-box store

Wal-Mart made the term "big box" popular among the retail elite back in the early 1990s when it began switching from a standard discount store format (which was already large) to the newer "Supercenter" format that featured an expanded discount-merchandise offering as well as a full-service grocery store, auto care center and home-and-garden center (among other sections).

Wal-Mart grew from where it was in the 1990s (a $30 billion retailer) to the world's largest retailer with sales approaching $350 billion a year, on the back of the American consumer. U.S. customers just loved shopping for everything they could ever need under one large roof, as Wal-Mart defined one-stop shopping.

As the company grew, it was able to muscle larger and larger discounts from just about every supplier, and constantly offered lower prices than the competition. Customers were more than hooked -- they became addicted to the sheer merchandise selection and unbeatable prices -- all under one roof.

Retail times do change

Well, Wal-Mart's one-stop shop concept worked fabulously for quite a while -- more than 13 years. While the company's growth has not stopped really, it has slowed dramatically in its largest market, the U.S. While more nimble competitors like Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) continued to grow, Wal-Mart's enormous size meant that it had to do more to "grow" in the eyes of the financial market. With Wal-Mart shares having moved very little in five years, shareholders and analysts have wondered quite a bit recently how the company can continue to deliver now that the big-box concept it basically developed has grown stale.

Don't tell Target this, though. The company is rolling out newer "SuperTarget" stores that are very similar to Wal-Mart Supercenters. The main difference on why Target's concept works revolves around superior marketing. Its corporate color is "action" red, its stores are noticeably cleaner than Wal-Mart stores, the merchandise displays are arguably more refined and better displayed, and its house grocery brands more quickly reflect the growing customer appetite towards healthier foods.

Wal-Mart's concepts have changed very little in the Supercenter category, and customers have noticed. Result? They've moved to other retailers like Target for general merchandise and Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) for consumer electronics. Both retailers have evolved their store formats over time to acclimate to changing customer tastes and merchandise trends. Wal-Mart has been the laggard in this respect for a long, long time.

Are different store size formats the answer?

To a company that literally defined the cutting-edge logistics to know what items to stock before customers even bought them, the change from a "one size fits all" store format like a Supercenter to a more custom approach that revolves around specific communities and demographics has to be painful. Yet, this is what Wal-Mart may have to do in the near future.

Target's SuperTarget stores will remain formidable competition in the big-box retail format, and newer competition from global competitors like Tesco may make Wal-Mart look at several different types of store formats, depending on the specifics of the region where any Wal-Mart store is located. With regular discount stores, Supercenters and possibly even small-format stores on the horizon, Wal-Mart indeed needs to re-think its merchandising strategy moving forward. Either that, or the competition will take advantage of it. It's odd to think of Wal-Mart as being in a defensive position, but that's right where it is right now. Whodathunkit?

It'll be interesting to see a Wal-Mart the size of a CVS or Walgreen's location in the near future, but I see this happening in markets where a smaller format makes sense. From a purely business perspective, not having a ton of merchandise may slow sales, since inventory turns are the oil that greases Wal-Mart's overall cash machine. The less inventory, the less than can be turned.

Conversely, the retailer may have much better luck in municipalities and communities that have shunned it before if it re-establishes communication with these areas in order to pitch smaller store formats to these areas -- many which are concerned about a whole host of issues a 100,000-square-foot retail location can unleash. If Wal-Mart can open more stores in areas where it had previously been unsuccessful, perhaps the sales from those newer, smaller stores will make up for the lack of inventory.

Join me next week for another edition of The Wal-Mart Weekly. Until then, have a great Labor Day weekend!

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 05:15 AM

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