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Time Warner (TWX): No catalyst or no leadership? Some comparisons

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The Mothership, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), owner of AOL, Time Inc., Warner Brothers studios and this site has been going nowhere fast. TWX was one of the first stocks I ever bought (and sold) 25 years ago. I re-acquired TWX after the bubble collapsed the market and from that point about six years ago I am up over 50%. However those gains came early, buying in at $12.10. The stock has been treading water for three years closing yesterday at $18.61. The chart below indicates TWX was at that level in 2004.


At one point the stock was infused with excitement when Carl Icahn bought a substantial amount of shares and pushed for major changes. The stock went up through January 2007 and has been meandering back down ever since. During this time the company has bought back shares, reduced debt, closed its cable deal (spinning off Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC)), produced some successful movies, sold some under-performing businesses including magazine interests and increased shareholder equity. But the stock lags the market and is down for the year even though it has some strong metrics, like a price-to-book value of 1.32 (LFY).

Why is the stock languishing? Is it a leadership issue? A reflection of a CEO Dick Parsons, who is perceived as a dull, competent caretaker who is unimaginative and slow-to-act? Was Icahn correct that the company needs to break itself up? Perhaps it just needs some Jack Welch-type aggressive selling of under-performing divisions?

While many of these issues might be relevant, (maybe all of them?) have others faired better? I think not. Look at a comparison with Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C). Note an almost identical path even though it is in an entirely different business. The charts are so similar it's scary!


What's going on here? Maybe it's because both companies have CEO's whose last name begins with "P?" Chuck Prince at Citigroup has been under the same pressures as Parsons to improve shareholder value even if it means breaking up the company. Maybe it's something about being headquartered in New York? Perhaps it is because the largest shareholder of both companies is Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. He has been cast as a very shrewd investor but these stocks would not provide evidence of that.

I think the companies simply are not focused and cannot get focused. Change can be frightening and in the case of these CEO's maybe petrifying. I do not think it is essential that the companies shrink, but maybe some major wheeling and dealing like General Electric (NYSE: GE) did 25 years ago, exiting some businesses to expand others would be very appropriate.

GE is a third company under the same pressure and should be looking back at past successes and learn from itself. This might be the correct course of action even if the stocks were showing more positive investor sentiment. It is always good to be re-evaluating and polishing. I'm sure both companies have Directors in their Board Rooms staring at each other thinking: Now what? No doubt their shareholders are thinking the same thing.

Read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find potential opportunities, and to verify my track record, as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He is on the advisory board of Internet start-up CircleBuilder.com.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:02 AM

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