Campbell Soup (CPB): Sales up, earnings down

The first paragraph of Campbell Soup Company (NYSE: CPB)'s 4th Quarter 2007 earnings report is a textbook lesson in corporate double speak. The press release headlines trumpet that fiscal year earnings per share (EPS) was up 13%, and sales up 7%. Good news, right? Not exactly. It's good news when sales are up AND earnings are also up, which is not the case with Campbell Soup. Investors do not care primarily what drives sales. Investors care what drives earnings, also known as profits, what we get to keep. So while 4th quarter sales were up 10% for the quarter to $53 million, despite the fact that some types of soup sales were flat, earnings were down 30% to $0.14 per share. That is the number that matters.

The big news for Campbell Soup is that, having spent quite a sum of money in preparation, the company is now ready to launch soup sales in both Russia and China, the world's two largest soup markets. Presently, the company has not released tentative figures of what it hopes sales and revenues will be in these two new markets. For fiscal year 2007, Campbell Soup did $1.4 billion in international sales, not counting Russia and China.

Like many food manufacturers, Campbell Soup is faced with rising costs for raw materials. The company has instituted cost cutting programs on the one hand, while increasing quarterly marketing expenses by 15% on the other. For the fiscal year, cash flow was reduced by almost 50% (not a typo) while the company repurchased 30 million shares at a cost of $1.14 billion. There are some good pieces of news in the earnings report. Sales of V-8 Juice, Prego pasta sauces, and Pace Mexican sauces all increased, as did sales of ready-to-serve soups. The company attributes some of the soup sale increase to the gravity-fed shelving systems in place in many grocery stores. This negates the need for customers to have to root around at the back of shelves for cans of the desired variety. Sales of Pepperidge Farms baked products increased but so did the marketing expenses associated with that sales increase. Goldfish crackers continued to be a big seller, offset by declines in cookie sales. (I know I did my part with cookie sales.)

Campbell Soup forecasts fiscal year 2008 sales growth of 3-4% over 2007 net sales of $7.867 billion, and diluted EPS growth of 5-7%. The stock closed on 6 September at $36.68, down $1.32 on news of earnings decline.

[photo mccheek]