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For Alan Greenspan, the market turmoil is deja vu all over again

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The current market turmoil, including a worse-than-expected decline in U.S. employment, has a familiar ring to Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

In fact, Greenspan told a group of economists last night that the "behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land-boom collapse of 1837 and certainly [the bank panic of] 1907," according to the Wall Street Journal.

Greenspan also noted that bubbles can't be defused by incremental adjustments in interest rates. But that's not going to give his replacement Ben Bernanke enough cover to avoid cutting rates, particularly when worrisome signs continue such as last month's decline in employment, the first in four years.

"The recession risk has certainly increased,'' Lehman Bros. (NYSE: LEH) economist Zach Pandl told Bloomberg News. "It definitely cements the case for a rate cut at the next Fed meeting."

Yeah, but don't bet on it happening.

Bernanke has good reason to fear that by cutting interest rates that the Fed would reward investors who took foolish risks. The data seems to suggest that the housing slump hasn't had a major impact on the overall economy. At least, that's the case for now.

The Fed views the economy the way that a doctor views a patient. Someone who is sick first is treated with antibiotics (the discount rate cut) and only heads into surgery (interest rate cuts) when a less invasive treatment fails. Bernanke also has to make sure that the interest rate cure that so many people want doesn't create more problems than it solves.

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:17 PM

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