The current market turmoil, including a worse-than-expected decline in U.S. employment, has a familiar ring to Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.
In fact, Greenspan told a group of economists last night that the "behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land-boom collapse of 1837 and certainly [the bank panic of] 1907," according to the Wall Street Journal.
Greenspan also noted that bubbles can't be defused by incremental adjustments in interest rates. But that's not going to give his replacement Ben Bernanke enough cover to avoid cutting rates, particularly when worrisome signs continue such as last month's decline in employment, the first in four years.
"The recession risk has certainly increased,'' Lehman Bros. (NYSE: LEH) economist Zach Pandl told Bloomberg News. "It definitely cements the case for a rate cut at the next Fed meeting."
Yeah, but don't bet on it happening.
Bernanke has good reason to fear that by cutting interest rates that the Fed would reward investors who took foolish risks. The data seems to suggest that the housing slump hasn't had a major impact on the overall economy. At least, that's the case for now.
The Fed views the economy the way that a doctor views a patient. Someone who is sick first is treated with antibiotics (the discount rate cut) and only heads into surgery (interest rate cuts) when a less invasive treatment fails. Bernanke also has to make sure that the interest rate cure that so many people want doesn't create more problems than it solves.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-07-2007 @ 10:20AM
john said...
Alan the 'Bubble-Maker' should just go away. Ben has all the leeway he needs to do what ever the Fed sees as correct. And not just for the short-term. If he cuts by 1/4 it doesn't mean he has to do more later. He may create as his legacy that he got it 'right' and stopped using Fed policy as an 'on-off' switch. Something the bubble-master couldn't handle. John
9-07-2007 @ 10:34AM
Warren said...
While everyone debates how this might be different this time around....I'm taking money off the table.
9-07-2007 @ 10:41AM
gary said...
my money has moved into cash 5.12%. ill go bargain hunting later
9-07-2007 @ 10:48AM
Mike said...
Alan who??? I thought he retired. He often was confused while in office and still remains the same. The real estate market has obviosuly had a major effect on the market and the real estate market and lower interest rates were created by who.... Alan, please let Ben do his job and gently ease the problems that were created by you.
9-07-2007 @ 11:31AM
Warren said...
People who move money in and out of the market crack me up. Invest for the long term or don't bother.
9-07-2007 @ 12:11PM
El Fraley said...
Greenspan is a living rgument for the Eskimo custom of, at the appropriate time, putting their seniors on an ice berg and pushing them out to sea.Change Greenspan to Greenberg.
9-07-2007 @ 1:01PM
Art Hill said...
When Michael Milken did his "junk bond" act years ago, he went to jail. I'd like to see a few of the big money manipul;atots in the slammer too. How about KKR for starters, a hedge fund or two, and a few of the multi condo flippers who play fast and loose with our market. I have been through this at least five times that I can recall, and we always recover, but it doesn't have to happen. Lets hit a few of the big movers and shakers, as we did with Enron.
Art Hill, Philadelphia
9-07-2007 @ 12:10PM
Budo said...
Get lost!! You are the one who actually began this several years ago. people just did not see it. It was a matter of time!
9-07-2007 @ 12:57PM
Gumby said...
It is said that half of the bankrupticies in California was caused by big medical bills in families. Why cant the banks just let the families in trouble to suspend payments until they are back on their feets and say to hell to mortgage securities investors who think it is riskless to buy sub prime mortgage securities sold by the banks, anyway? Sure, the families have to complete the mortgage payment terms whatever it is. Just let them stretch the terms. Banks can stretch the mortgage terms by as long as three or five years to 35 years or whatever. Do you know that if you make biweekly mortgage payments the bank will shave a few years off your 30 year term? Why cant the banks do the same the other way around especially for families or even home flippers by letting them suspend payments or make minimum payments like , say as little as 25% of the monthly payments to keep it going... Home purchases is a big commitment and I dont think the banks is right to take homes away from them just for being a puny three month late....
9-07-2007 @ 10:33PM
Stan Levitas said...
This is the same old make that very old greenspan mouthing off. He was resposible for the last problem. Why cant he just go away and let Ben do his job. This amn cannot stay away from the pblic limelite. He truly has become an investers worst nightmare
9-07-2007 @ 12:10PM
Gumby said...
Some homeowners are so brain washed by the home price appreciation story. While it is true , the banks should caution the buyers to think hard about make immediate improvements if they are really tight with finances in order to carry out expensive home improvement expenses. I dont beleive that homeowners should do those until they are five or ten years down the mortgage payments when inflation would make the usually fixed or later adjusted payments smaller. Once they are there, they could better afford to take out equity loans for home improvements. Banks usually offer home owners equity loans right after they close the escrow. Banks really loaded up on the unwittingly buyers. Remember we are really brainwashed by "C'mon fix em uppers!!" Pay the mortgage first and settle down then think about prettying up your home much , much later!!! This may not apply to home flippers however.
9-07-2007 @ 12:17PM
Steve Shackelford said...
I believe that we may already be in a recession. I also believe that we are in a prime opportuntity mode for doing some serious homework on the up coming fire sales. I have to see the positive in all this panic. This is where the strong companies are exposed. - Steve http://www.turtlewealth.com
9-07-2007 @ 12:58PM
debra said...
1. We are in several bubbles
at one time. The dollar is being pumped up by China. When the dollar goes down, China losses money and they'
cant sell all their exports to us
if we go down-they go down.
However, lowing interest rates makes it harder for overseas people to invest in
us. Double sword. To save the homeowner we hurt the
lenders-Japan, China etc. The
lenders are more important than the homeowners. Real Estate bubble, trade deficiet bubble, debt bubble. The consumer is now going to stop. Our government for along along along time has run this show as a crap game.
All the foreign borrowing grew our economy-borrowing never grows anything permanent. It may well get rough.
9-07-2007 @ 12:57PM
deejay said...
Greenspan should have had a GAG ORDER placed on him when he retired..... because he has had a face lift he wants all the camera attention he can get. He has not shut up since he "retired". Right now, he is basking in his glory as THE MARKET MOVER OF THE DAY. I think the Viagra has gone to his head. I think that The only period he hasn't put in his FEAR speech is the Great Depression of the 1920s. I wish I could click on SPAM for all of his doom and gloom pronouncements.
9-07-2007 @ 1:02PM
Flucido said...
The stock market is for SUCKERS! I waited for ten years with a "diversified portfolio" and still lost money. It's totally gambling and your odds in Vegas are considerably better. Bernake better cut rates quick or it's only going to get far worse. Hopefully he wont be as lame as that idiot Greenspan. Cutting rates will revive the economy and is our only hope. Recession is right around the corner. Bernake has no choice even though he will give lip service otherwise. It's all a big stupid game. The best thing to do is go into politics like George Bush and drive up the cost of oil so you can retire with your families oil money and flip off the world.
9-07-2007 @ 1:56PM
Mort said...
Excesses get corrected as those who gambled in housing and real estate are now finding out. Pain for Wall Street is deserved.
9-07-2007 @ 2:21PM
robert greenwood said...
Greenspan, as usual, was obtuse in his remarks. He failed to mention the credit crunch has extended to hedge funds, commercial paper, CDO's, foreign banks, etc. This may be more serious than the previous troubles he referred to. I am now out of stocks altogether.
9-08-2007 @ 9:27AM
Ron said...
I would say that this starting out a lot like the old Lincoln Credit Union fiasco, from many years back. As that turned out we the people had to bail all that bad paper out. And who ever was telling these folks they could get a great deal, and chance to make big bucks with a flip later, T.S. should have to eat there words and losses. All those people that took out those sub-prime loans looking to make a fast buck, were betting on a long shot that came in at the back of the pack. Sorry they should be not have been put themselves out on that limb, to began with. We can only hope that "W" doesn't bail all those bad loans out with our money.
9-09-2007 @ 11:09AM
Corey said...
Well the Fed is definitely lowering the Fed Funds rate on the 18th of September, the question is only by how much they will cut - 25 or 50 basis points? And many predict an emergency 50 basis point cut BEFORE the 18th. This would temporarily increase liquidity and provide limited support for the housing market, but at the same time it will DEFINITELY devalue the dollar significantly, as the dollar and U.S. treasuries are supported only by foreign lenders attracted by higher interest rates (which control T-bill rates). China alone owns $1.3 trillion in U.S. treasuries, and foreigners have to buy over $3B per day of U.S. treasuries to keep the dollar afloat. Once interest rates are cut, the rug will be pulled out from under the U.S. Dollar, causing a "run" on the world's reserve currency.
So the Fed is between a rock and hard place - they can keep rates where they are and implode housing and consumer spending completely (along with the stock market), or they can cut rates, which will cause the dollar to collapse, along with the stock market AND bonds (eventually), and everything else denominated in U.S. dollars. The only difference is that by cutting rates aggressively now, the Fed might avert the inevitable bursting of the multiple asset bubbles.
Which way will the Fed go? There is almost no debate on the matter. The market is now pricing in a 100% chance of a fed rate cut on the 18th of September. Everyone agrees this is the politically astute thing to do and it may at least temporarily prop up housing and the stock market for a short amount of time, and temporarily avert a severe recession or depression until the next Administration takes over.
However, the results of the rate cut will be clear and are not debated - the dollar will devalue significantly, and investors will seek out any and all remaining safe havens. Gold and Silver will continue to explode higher (Gold closed over $700 last week, well above key resistance levels), along with Gold and Silver mining stocks. The mining stocks will get caught up in any initial stock slide if/when a recession/depression becomes aparent, but over the longer term they will perform well.
Do all yourselves a favor - dump stocks and get some physical gold and silver
9-14-2007 @ 9:14PM
Nancy said...
To-Greenmold,
You have some nerve showing
your toady face after causing this debacle.
I'm sure you were the willing puppet
of the White House. Smoke and mirrors.